The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, August 15
Alex Cobb: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants | 9:45 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.15 ERA indicates
Cobb has struggled a bit this season, posting a 3-6 record with a 4.15 ERA through 18 starts. He has looked outstanding with an elite 2.83 xFIP, though. He’s also recorded a .328 BABIP, suggesting he’s due for positive regression.
Cobb has seen mixed results, and he hasn’t seen a stretch of positive regression. His ERA’s sat higher than his xFIP in each of his last 3 starts, and he’s posted an xFIP at 3.00 or better in each of those starts.
Cobb gets a quietly bad matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They rank seventh in the MLB in team wOBA (.329) over the last 14 days. Still, he’ll benefit from a pitcher-friendly stadium, giving him the edge.
Bottom Line: Cobb continues to post elite advanced metrics, although he hasn’t found that success throughout the season. This is a less than ideal matchup, but the right-hander should have the advantage.
Johnny Cueto: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.91 ERA suggests
Cueto continues to avoid regression at a ridiculous rate. He enters this game with a 4-5 record and 2.91 ERA through 16 games (15 starts). He also owns a 4.22 xFIP.
Cueto isn’t even throwing bad in terms of advanced metrics in 2022. He just isn’t throwing at as high of a level as his baseline metrics suggest. It’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked similar to his stretch earlier this season.
Cueto gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros tonight. They rank 10th in the MLB in team wOBA (.323). The Astros have the ability to get to any pitcher in the league, and Cueto could be in for a rough night.
Bottom Line: Cueto somehow avoids regression over and over, but it’s going to come to an end at some point. Houston boasts a dominant offense, and I’m expecting them to get to Cueto tonight.
Kyle Bradish: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:07 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.42 ERA suggests
Bradish has struggled through limited starts as a rookie. He owns a 1-4 record with a 6.42 ERA through 13 starts. His xFIP sits at only 3.88, suggesting he is throwing significantly better than his baseline metrics show.
Bradish has thrown better in recent games. He is coming off of a bad start, but he’s seen some positive regression in two of his last three starts. When he’s struggled, he’s struggled bad, which has been his biggest issue.
Bradish gets a bad matchup on paper against the Toronto Blue Jays. They only rank 20th in the MLB in team wOBA (.299) over the last 14 days, though. With that being said, they’re playing at home, and I’m not entirely sold this will be a matchup for Bradish to find success in.
Bottom Line: Baltimore’s rookie is due for a ton of positive regression. I’m just not sure he’s going to find it in Toronto tonight.
