The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, August 3
Tyler Beede: Pittsburgh Pirates
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.12 ERA indicates
Beede has thrown extremely well throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 1-1 record with a 3.12 ERA through 23 games. With that being said, he’s also recorded a 4.74 xFIP in those contests.
The major key here is that Beede’s thrown in a relief role in all 23 games, allowing for more variance. He has thrown more than 3 innings in any game this season, which allows pitchers to avoid regression. He’s drawing the start tonight, and if he sees any extra innings, he could be in trouble.
Beede also gets a terrible matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers lead the MLB in team wOBA (.378) over the last 14 days, and they should find plenty of success in this matchup.
Bottom Line: Beede has avoided regression as a reliever, but he could find it if Pittsburgh gives him extra innings as a starter. This is also a terrible matchup for the right-hander.
Lance Lynn: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox | 2:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.42 ERA suggests
Lynn has struggled with a 1-4 record and a 6.42 ERA through 9 starts this season. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as he also owns a 3.65 xFIP. This is his lowest xFIP since 2012.
Lynn had a rough stretch a few games ago, but he’s been throwing at a high level since, even if his baseline metrics don’t show it. He’s quietly recorded 2.39, 2.36, and 3.09 xFIPs over his last 3 starts.
Lynn gets a good matchup against a struggling Kansas City Royals team. They rank 21st in the MLB in team wOBA (.303) over the last 14 days. They were also sellers at the deadline, and their offense is going to get worse.
Bottom Line: Lynn has been throwing at a fine level, even if the results aren’t there are the moment. He gets a great matchup against Kansas City, and he should find plenty of success tonight.
Kyle Bradish: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers | 2:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 7.01 ERA suggests
Bradish has seen somewhat limited innings (51.1) this season, but he’s been extremely unlucky. His 7.01 ERA sits well below a reasonable 3.84 xFIP. He also owns an unsustainably high .393 BABIP this season.
As is the case with most rookies, Bradish has been inconsistent throughout the season. He’s coming off of a game with a 2.10 xFIP, though, and he posted a 3.79 xFIP two games before that. Even in his bad starts, he’s gotten unlucky in 2022.
Bradish gets an interesting matchup against the Texas Rangers. They rank 16th in the MLB in team wOBA (.312) over the last 14 days. This isn’t a matchup that I’d be willing to shy away from.
Bottom Line: Bradish has gotten extremely unlucky through his rookie season. It’s only a matter of time before his luck changes, and that could start in a solid matchup against Texas tonight.
