At a glance, the Phillies appear to have a massive pitching advantage tonight. The visitors will turn to their ace, Zack Wheeler. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will give the ball to a pitcher who opened the year in their bullpen, Ross Stripling.
However, the disparity might not be as significant as it seems. Moreover, there’s a notable gap in offense quality. So, should bettors back the ace or the hosts with the superior offense? Is taking a side the right move or wagering on the game total? Check out today’s analysis of the betting info for the Blue Jays vs Phillies to find out where I suggest putting your money.
Blue Jays vs Phillies Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies (Wheeler) | -1.5 (+150) | -110 | O 8 (-105) |
| @ Blue Jays (Stripling) | +1.5 (-180) | -110 | U 8 (-115) |
Odds via PointsBet as of 8:30 am ET on July 13.
Wheeler’s Ace Status After Slow Start
Wheeler vs Blue Jays: According to FanGraphs, Wheeler has had a sterling 2.46 ERA in 16 starts spanning 95 innings. In addition, his 2.74 xERA says he’s been the real deal.
Yet, his ERA is even more impressive if you tossed his first three turns when he was building up arm strength after an abbreviated spring training. In his last 13 starts totaling 82.1 innings, he’s had a 1.53 ERA and 2.83 xFIP.
Is he bulletproof? Maybe not. Wheeler has been lights out at home, owning a 1.62 ERA in 55.2 innings. However, he’s had a less impressive 3.66 ERA on the road. Obviously, his road mark isn’t anything to sneeze at, but it’s not a world-beater ERA.
Blue Jays offense: The Blue Jays will be challenged by Wheeler tonight. Fortunately, they might be up to the task. Toronto is sixth in wRC+ (111) against righties.
They’ve also been good lately and excellent at home. In the last 30 days, the Blue Jays have had the sixth-highest wRC+ (116). Additionally, the hosts have had MLB’s second-highest wOBA (.345) and fourth-highest ISO (.191) in home games this season.
If any offense gets the better of Wheeler, the Blue Jays at home are one of the most likely.
Ross Stripling Has Transitioned Nicely To Starting
Stripling vs Phillies: Stripling has made eight relief appearances, and a dozen starts. Typically, swingmen are mediocre or worse starters. However, Stripling has excelled as a starter this year, twirling a 3.20 ERA and 3.51 xFIP. He’s also had a rock-solid 3.51 ERA at home.
The 32-year-old righty has dominated lefties, holding them to a .233 wOBA. Sadly, he’s been more giving to righties, coughing up a .317 wOBA. Nevertheless, Stripling hasn’t been a disaster in same-handed matchups. Finally, he’s been in superb form, recording a 2.55 ERA and 3.79 xFIP in his previous seven starts.
Phillies offense: The Phillies have been precisely average against righties this year. Literally, they’ve had a 100 wRC+ against them that ranks 16th.
Philadelphia has also been a tick worse lately, ranking 20th with a 97 wRC+ over the last 30 days. However, they can thang their hat on being a top-10 offense on the road, ranking seventh in wOBA (.318). So, there’s some potential for the Phillies getting the better of Stripling.
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction
Wheeler is a better pitcher than Stripling. I’m not going to dispute that. Nevertheless, as I mentioned above, the gap isn’t as big as it might seem. Conversely, Toronto’s offense is markedly better than Philadelphia’s.
One factor undiscussed to this point is the bullpens. Toronto’s relievers have had the ninth-highest ERA (4.26), and Philadelphia’s relievers are tied for the 15th-highest ERA (3.74). However, Toronto’s reliever’s 4.01 xFIP has been better than Philadelphia’s 4.07 xFIP. So, the bullpens are probably a wash.
After considering everything, I’ll back Toronto’s offensive advantage making the difference tonight. Finally, Toronto’s 25-18 record at home is a cherry on top for betting on them as a slight underdog.
The Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-110) | PointsBet
