The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, July 12
Josh Winder: Minnesota Twins
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins | 7:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.12 ERA indicates
Winder has thrown limited innings this season, meaning his results are volatile. He’s posted a 3.12 ERA with a 4.70 xFIP through 40.1 innings thus far.
It’s important to note that Winder has struggled in each of his last four games. He’s recorded an xFIP over 4.90 in each game, including an 8.68 xFIP against the Oakland A’s. He recently shut out the Cleveland Guardians in a game where he posted a 6.76 xFIP as well.
Winder gets a tough matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. They’ve been playing well in recent games, and they boast tremendous offensive upside on a nightly basis.
Bottom Line: Winder has struggled in recent games, and he gets a terrible matchup tonight. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, and I’m expecting that to start tonight.
Austin Gomber: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.46 ERA suggests
Gomber’s an interesting pitcher. His 6.46 ERA sits drastically higher than his 4.16 xFIP on the season, suggesting he’s due for positive regression. He owns similar numbers in Coors, as his ERA sits 2.40 points higher than his xFIP.
Gomber has looked great in his last two starts against the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting 2.60 and 3.98 xFIPs. He’s recorded an ERA higher than his xFIP in 4 of his last 5 starts. It’s only a matter of time before these two numbers start evening out.
As for tonight, Gomber gets a tough matchup in hitter-friendly Coors Field. The San Diego Padres have been ice cold in recent games, but they still boast a tough offense against left-handed pitching.
Bottom Line: Gomber is certainly due for positive regression, but I’m concerned with the matchup. Truthfully, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a solid start tonight, but San Diego has the offense to get to any left-handed pitcher.
Kevin Gausman: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:07 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 27% strikeout rate suggests
Gausman has enjoyed an outstanding season so far. He’s gotten unlucky with strikeouts, though. He owns a 27% strikeout rate, which is his lowest since 2019. He’s also posted a career-high 16% swinging-strike rate to go along with a 29.8% CSW rate.
Gausman needs to find more called strikes, but his strikeout rate is still a bit low. He boasts a similar swinging-strike rate to Spencer Strider and Dylan Cease, who possess 12.1% and 7.3% higher strikeout rates. Both of those starters have found more called strikes, which is the difference, although it shouldn’t be this drastic.
Gausman gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. They aren’t a team that’s been striking out at a high rate in recent games, which could limit his opportunities for this game.
Bottom Line: Gausman needs to find more called strikeouts, and his strikeout rate could jump to over 30%. Regardless of that, it’s a bit too low at the moment. He may not see the positive strikeout regression in this particular matchup, though.
