Trevor Lawrence is in his third NFL game, and both previous games have not gone too well when it comes to turnovers. The question is, do we expect this to be a long-term trend, or do we expect this to subside soon, maybe even this week?
Passing Volume
Lawrence is a gunslinger, and he is being asked to be the ultimate gunslinger at this point in time. The Jags are struggling as a team, and this results in early deficits and bombs away with Lawrence in the second half. Coming into this season, I was down on Trevor Lawrence’s prospects to begin this season simply because of his college experience and what the NFL will look like relative to college.
If you follow college football right now, you would see Clemson is struggling, and they really aren’t much different at receiver this season. The difference is that Lawrence was very, very comfortable with throwing the ball to covered receivers and in traffic. This is not necessarily a bad thing long-term, but it’s a recipe for a bunch of turnovers early in his career, and that is clearly the case so far because he is throwing directly into major traffic.
Aggressive Playcalling
It’s also important to note that his coaching staff is clearly encouraging this style of play, something that a lot of coaches won’t do with rookies. Mac Jones, for example, has been very, very measured when it comes to taking chances downfield early in the season, and I suspect that is very much by design. Letting Lawrence loose can really hurt his early stats and even his confidence, but it also will help him pick up on what he can and cannot do in the NFL very, very quickly.
Matchup
This matchup sets up perfectly for a Lawrence interception again. The Cardinals are willing to move the ball quickly against a bad defense, and Jacksonville certainly is that. We also have a bad Arizona secondary that should let the Jags think that they can throw the ball around with some sort of success. I expect a lot more downfield passes for Lawrence this week again, and that will result in more interceptions.
Bottom Line
If you have a huge number at your local book, I would be willing to take the over on 1.5 if offered based on his first two games and the other reasons mentioned above. Bet the over on this one and just check in on it during the second half.
