The Dodgers and the Padres have been neck-and-neck in the NL West throughout the season, with neither team being more than a few games behind.
With Los Angeles winning in the first game of this series, they now hold a 2.5-game lead. With three still to go this weekend, San Diego could still come away in the first place.
The pitching matchup tonight has the Dodgers as the heavy favorites heading into tonight. Is the chalk destined to hit tonight? Let’s take a deep dive into this matchup.
Will Tony Gonsolin Dominate?
Dodger fans must be ecstatic to have Tony Gonsolin on the mound for this matchup. He’s proven in his time with the Dodgers that he is a dependable pitcher with a 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his first three seasons with the team, but he has taken it to a whole new level this season.
He’s the current favorite to take the National League Cy Young: leading the league with a 1.58 ERA, second with a 0.83 WHIP, and looking to be the first ten-game winner in the NL.
His breaking pitches look gravity-defying, falling off as they come over the plate. The adjustment of his splitter has been especially significant this year as the vertical movement went from one percent below the league average to five percent above. It’s been his best putaway pitch at 23.3%.
Tony Gonsolin, Wicked Splitter. 😼 pic.twitter.com/8JR75D8m9r
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 27, 2022
Blake Snell’s Struggles
The Padres will send up Blake Snell, who has struggled all season. He initially missed a month after an early exit in his first start of the season. Snell has not been able to get it going as he’s 0-5 with a 5.60 ERA, and the team is 1-7 in his starts this season.
He’s way off from his 2018 Cy Young season, where he finished in the 80th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. This season, he’s in the 63rd percentile or lower in each of those categories.
Walks have been Snell’s problem the last two years. Coming into 2021, he had a career average of 3.8 walks per nine innings, but since that’s increased to 4.8 the last two seasons. This could be trouble as the Dodgers are the most well-disciplined team with a league-leading 10.0% walk rate and 24.6% chase rate.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds & Action
Where Is The Public/Sharp Money?
The Dodgers opened at -141 on Thursday night, but after their win in the first game of the series, the line has steadily increased, and it’s jumped to -179 on some sportsbooks.
Most of the tickets (82%) and money (76%) are flowing to the Dodgers, reports DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction
Looking at the pitching matchup, you have to heavily favor the Dodgers when they send up a possible Cy Young winner. Before this season, Tony Gonsolin had been on the verge of becoming that next top pitcher. After watching him this year, he’s reached it.
The Dodgers’ offense is living up to the hype as they are leading the league in on-base percentage (.328), second in wOBA (.329), and OPS (.729). Snell’s control problem could leave him open to laboring innings, and the Dodgers excel with runners on as they’re sixth with a .314 BABIP with runners on.
With Gonsolin being untouchable, followed by an outstanding bullpen, there’s no relief for the Padres to put together some runs.
The pick: LA Dodgers moneyline | -170 at Caesars Sportsbook
