It’s NBA draft day, and the first three picks have settled. Maybe. We aren’t ruling anything out.
Because of that news, there’s no real value in NBA draft props for the first three spots. Some sportsbooks have taken those numbers off the board completely.
We’ll dive into that development while finding some deeper NBA draft props that still carry betting upside on the day of the event.
All odds as of 11 am ET on Thursday, June 23.
Draft Position: Jeremy Sochan Under 11.5
Best odds available: +115 at Caesars Sportsbook
I’m ecstatic to get plus-money on this offering. There’s a wide range of outcomes for Sochan’s draft position, but most of them skew towards a top 11 selection.
The scouting report on Sochan gushes over his defensive prowess. The 6’9″ forward has the length and quickness to defend nearly any position on the court. Sochan needs to develop his offense (particularly mid-to-deep shooting), but he could play quality NBA defense tomorrow if needed.
Almost every team could use a guy like this. You know he’ll show up on defense, run the court, and attack the glass. At 19 years old, there’s plenty of room to develop his already NBA-ready archetype.
Almost every mock draft has him going at pick 8-to-11, which gives us a little more confidence in this plus-money bet.
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Drafted First: E.J. Liddell Before Nikola Jovic
Best odds available: -185 at DraftKings Sportsbook
I’m not a huge fan of laying juice. That’s especially true when betting on NBA draft props. Weird stuff can happen (trades, reaches, etc). However, I’ll make an exception for this bet.
These two prospects are polar opposites. Liddell is a solid, proven commodity who is ready to contribute right away. Meanwhile, Jovic will probably need several years of development to grow into a consistent NBA role.
For that reason, more teams will lean towards Liddell to bolster their current (not future) rotation. Chicago, Denver, and Philadelphia all make sense in the 18-23 range.
As for Jovic, there’s a decent chance that a rebuilding team like the Spurs or Rockets take him in the 25-26 range.
First 5 Picks Exact Order
The Order: Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jaden Ivey, Benedict Mathurin
Best odds available: +360 at FanDuel Sportsbook
ESPN reported that Smith, Holmgren, and Panchero will go in that order to begin the draft. Assuming the craziness is over and that news holds, this NBA draft prop should naturally come to fruition.
Jaden Ivey is the next best player in the draft behind those top three picks. The Kings will either take him at No. 4 or trade with a team that wants the Purdue prospect.
From here, it comes down to who the Pistons select: Keegan Murray vs. Benedict Mathurin is the debate.
It’s a true coin flip between these two. That’s why I like the +360 odds for this draft order. If we replace Mathurin with Murray in this NBA draft prop, the odds dwindle to +135.
This is a somewhat risky bet, but getting 3.6 times your investment back is enough to entertain it. Mathurin is arguably a better all-around prospect than Murray, as the latter has concerns with his athleticism and defense at the next level.
You could argue that Murray would help replace PF Jerami Grant, who was just traded away, but the Pistons have still Isaiah Stewart on the roster. Some of that trade collateral could be used to boost the power forward depth.
Putting Mathurin alongside last year’s top overall pick, Cade Cunningham, could be a fun backcourt duo for the next decade. Let’s face it, this Pistons franchise could use some fun.
