I wrote about the No. 1 pick odds just two days ago, but in draft times, two days is an eternity. A lot has changed since then, resulting in massive swings on the NBA draft odds board.
NBA Draft Odds
| Player | School | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith | Auburn | -240 |
| Paolo Banchero | Duke | +270 |
| Chet Holmgren | Gonzaga | +420 |
| Jaden Ivey | Purdue | +20,000 |
NBA draft odds via FanDuel Sportsbook updated 2:45 pm ET on June 22.
Paolo Banchero As No. 1 Pick?
The biggest change involves Paolo Banchero. He was initially considered to be in the mix for the top spot, but he appeared to fall out of contention in recent weeks. His odds to become the first overall pick ballooned to +1400. That’s despite most draft analysts considering him the best player available.
Banchero is the most pro-ready prospect at the moment. His freshman year at Duke wasn’t always pretty, but he averaged 17.1 points, 7.7 boards, and 3.1 assists per game. His perimeter shooting remains a bit of a question mark – which is a big deal in the modern NBA – but he’s capable of doing everything else on the basketball court.
Banchero received a massive push in the betting market over the past two days. He’s officially passed Chet Holmgren on the NBA draft odds board, and he pulled nearly even with Jabari Smith on Tuesday evening.
Jabari Smith Still Favored
Since that shift in the NBA draft odds, Smith has increased his lead. The former Auburn Tiger is currently listed at around -290 to go first overall. That makes him the clear favorite, but I don’t think there’s any betting value at that number. Most reports suggest the Magic are still unsure on who to select. Some rumors believe they could trade out of the top spot.
Not to take any shots at the Magic – I apologize to their four fans – but this is why bad teams stay bad. You don’t get the first pick in the draft very often, so it’s imperative that they take advantage. I understand wanting to be thorough, but the draft is almost 24 hours away. C’mon! If they’re still unsure about the pick, that’s not good form.
As far as the prospects go, each of them brings something different to the table. Smith just turned 19 years old, and he was phenomenal in his freshman season at Auburn. He shot better than 43% from 3-point range, and he also brings intensity to the defensive end of the floor.
What About Chet Holmgren?
Holmgren is the wild card. His skill set is tantalizing, combining guard-like skills on offense with a 7’0” frame. He averaged 3.6 blocks per game while shooting 41.2% from 3-point range, and all the reports suggest he is a beast in the gym. However, he checks in at just 195 pounds, which makes him extremely thin for his size. Other thin prospects have managed to find success in the NBA, but he could take some time to develop.
Ultimately, I would take Holmgren first and not think twice about it. Finding a big man who can space the floor and protect the rim is the dream combination for a modern center, and Holmgren can do both at an elite level. Imagine if Rudy Gobert could shoot 40% from 3-point range and handle the ball. That’s the upside with Holmgren.
Where’s The Betting Value?
Holmgren expressed that he’d rather play in Oklahoma City than Orlando, so it seems more likely that he ends up as the No. 2 pick. Even with his odds decreasing, it doesn’t seem like there’s much betting value here.
Banchero is the more interesting option. He’s the clear riser, similar to how Travon Walker rose up draft boards in the leadup to the NFL Draft. If a team trades for the No. 1 spot, they’ll have Banchero in mind.
The most likely scenario results in Orlando keeping the No. 1 pick and selecting Smith. He’s the “safest” prospect and the Magic reek of a team that simply doesn’t want to mess things up.
Still, I’ll take a betting flier on Banchero at +270 or so just in case.
NBA Draft Props: 3 Bets Still Hold Strong Value On Draft Day
