The staff ace of the New York Yankees is … Nestor Cortes? New York’s apple eatin’ mustache man has been stellar this season, taking a no-no into the eighth inning three starts back against Texas, then twirling eight innings of three-hit, one-run ball two starts ago against the White Sox.
It’s only in his last outing that Cortez gave up three runs in a game for the first time this season. Gerrit Cole, meanwhile, got touched for four against Baltimore this week, so it’s clear who’s running the show here.
Now Cortes opens a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, as the top two teams in the AL East hook up for the first time in 2022. Let the divisional jockeying begin!
Props.com breaks down Yankees vs Rays odds and action for Thursday’s series opener.
| Matchup | Moneyline odds | Runline odds | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -120 | +145 (-1.5 runs) | 7 (Over -110) |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +110 | -165 (+1.5 runs) | 7 (Under -110) |
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2:20 p.m. ET.
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N.Y. Yankees (31-13) Vs Tampa Bay Rays (26-17)
First pitch/TV: 6:40 p.m. ET/MLB Network & MLB.TV
Pitching matchup: LHP Nestor Cortes (3-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.889 WHIP) vs LHP Ryan Yarbrough (0-0, 4.20 ERA, 1.667 WHIP)
Season series: First meeting. Tampa Bay won last year’s season series 11-8.
Did you know: Over the last five seasons, if you placed a $100 wager on the Yankees every time they played a regular-season game at the Trop, you’d be down $582. New York is 13-18 in Tampa in that stretch.
About the Yankees
Hits & Misses: New York was the last team in the bigs to reach double-digit losses. But once Baltimore handed them loss No. 10 on May 19, the Yankees have gone 3-3. That includes their first three-game losing skid of the season. The Bombers only rank in the top five in MLB in slugging, OPS and runs, but their success once again has been predicated on the long ball, as they lead the majors with 63. Aaron Judge is responsible for more than a quarter of those dingers, with an MLB-best 17. No other player has more than 12. (Judge would like his free agency money now, please.)
Cortes vs Rays: Cortes has a 56-11 K/BB ratio in 45 inning this season, and New York is 6-2 in his eight starts. The 27-year-old Cuban is 0-1 with a 4.29 ERA in seven career appearances (two starts) against Tampa Bay. walking seven and fanned 23 in 21 total innings. Both of Cortes’ starts versus the Rays were last year, including one at the Trop, where he surrendered one run on three hits and struck out five in five innings. Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier is 3-for-6 with a triple and three RBIs against the lefty. Kiermaier may not see much in the zone this evening.
Key injuries: LF/DH Giancarlo Stanton (ankle) settled into his familiar home on the 10-day injured list Wednesday. Stanton joins right-handed RP Jonathan Loáisiga (shoulder) and southpaw closer Aroldis Chapman (Achilles) on the IL. … DJ LeMahieu is day-to-day with a wrist issue … Josh Donaldson is on the Covid-19 IL … C Kyle Higashioka returned from the Covid IL Wednesday. OF Joey Gallo is expected to do the same today, as well.
About the Rays
Hits & Misses: After a cold start, Tampa has turned things around, winning five of its last seven. Both losses came on extra-innings walk-offs in Baltimore. The first, on May 20, saw the O’s erase a 3-0 deficit in the seventh, a 5-3 comeback in the 10th, and a 6-5 rally in the 11th before winning in the 13th. The Rays, who trail the Yankees by 4.5 games in the AL East, rank fifth in MLB with a 3.30 team ERA, slightly lagging behind New York’s 3.00. Tampa is in a four-way tie for second-best team WHIP at 1.11, along with the Angels, Astros and Yankees. The ALCS might have a combined score of 7-5.
Yarbrough vs Yankees: Yarbrough has pitched well against the Yankees in nine appearances, racking up a 5-2 record with a 2.41 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. Yarbrough is making his fourth start of the season, and once pitched as the bulk reliever behind an opener. Since getting tagged for five runs against Oakland on May 3, Yarbrough has only given up two earned in 12.2 innings. In 12 at-bats, Yarbrough has surrendered two doubles to Judge, but has kept him in the yard. Which is more than most AL pitchers can say right now.
Key injuries: RHP Andrew Kittredge and 2B Brandon Lowe (both with back injuries) remain on the IL with no timetable for return. … RF Manuel Margot made his return from the IL last night against the Marlins and went 1-for-3.
Notable Trends
- NYY are 22-7 in their last 29 as a favorite
- NYY are 1-4 on the runline in their last five against Tampa
- TB is 5-1 in its last six at home
- TB is 16-2 on the runline in its last 18
- Over for NYY is on runs of 7-2 vs. the AL East and 5-0 in series openers
- Under is 12-3 in NYY’s last 15 games when the opponent has a .600 or better winning percentage
- Over is 5-2 in TB’s last seven overall
- TB is 21-9 in its last 30 games vs. New York
- NYY is 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Tropicana Field
Yankees vs Rays Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:15 p.m. ET THURSDAY: Roughly 90 minutes prior to first pitch, Yankees vs. Rays odds have returned to the opening number at DraftKings. New York has dipped from -125 three hours ago to the current price of -120, while Tampa Bay has shifted from +105 to +100. Most of the moneyline action is still siding with the visitors, as 76% of all tickets and 70% of all dollars are on the Yankees.
While the moneyline has held firm, the total has plunged from 7.5/Under -120 to 7 flat (-110 both sides). After most of the early action was on the Over, things have evened out some, with 53% of wagers and 57% of cash on the Over.
The runline has ticked up from Yankees +140/Rays -160 to Yankees +145/Rays -165. New York is still seeing 57% of the runline bets and now 52% of the money (up from 37% earlier today).
UPDATE 2:20 p.m. ET THURSDAY: New York opened as a -120 road favorite and stretched out all the way to -135 before dialing back to the current price of -125. The Rays are +105. Early on at DraftKings, the Yankees were taking 78% of the tickets and money. The total opened at 7.5 and has remained steady, with -120 juice to the Under. Ticket count (60%) and money (77%) lean to the Over.
On the runline, the Yankees opened at +140, were bet all the way down to +125, but have returned to the open price. New York is getting 57% of the early runline tickets, but 63% of the early runline cash is on Tampa.
Check back prior to first pitch for additional Yankees vs Rays odds and action updates.
