Maybe you’re a recreational player who occasionally dabbles in the MLB betting market. Or maybe you’re a full-on seamhead running 14 different win-probability analytics models for every game, every day.
Either way, you’re probably curious which way the stick-and-ball action is going at various sportsbooks each day. Is one particular game seeing lopsided action on the moneyline and/or total? Where are the squares and sharps split? Which underdogs do bettors believe are live?
We aim to answer those questions (and others) with our MLB betting guide that debuts today. Make sure to stop by Props.com each weekday around 6 p.m. ET for a detailed breakdown of the wagering action for select MLB games played under the lights.
Here’s a look at where things stand for Monday night’s slate of 12 games on the diamond.
Odds updated as of 6 p.m. ET on May 16.
Bettors Dodging the DBacks
Believe it or not, the Arizona Diamondbacks (2022 payroll: $86 million) trail the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (2022 payroll: $289.3 million) by just four games. Not only that, but despite their 18-17 record, the DBacks are MLB’s most profitable team at +6.87 units. Conversely, Los Angeles (21-12) is 16th in the money standings (down 0.74 units).
One reason for that profitability discrepancy? Arizona took two of three from the Dodgers at home last month (cashing as +205 and +165 underdogs).
Suffice to say, PointsBet USA bettors aren’t buying — or should we say, wagering on — any of that heading into the opener of a four-game series Monday at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles is currently a -236 favorite (Arizona +190) at PointsBet, which reports that 82% of all wagers and 79% of all cash is on the home team.
Let’s Talk Chalk
Diamondbacks-Dodgers is hardly the only game that’s seeing lopsided moneyline action Monday at PointsBet. The others:
- Rays (-216) vs Tigers (+175): 83% bets/77% money on Tampa Bay
- Marlins (-196) vs Nationals (+160): 71% bets/84% money on Miami
- Blue Jays (-176) vs Mariners (+145): 73% bets/84% money on Toronto
- Angels (-140) vs Rangers (+120): 78% bets/83% money on Los Angeles
- Giants (-155) vs Rockies (+130): 76% bets/84% money on San Francisco
Of course, not all sportsbooks are created equal. To wit: Several of the above games that are receiving one-way action at PointsBet are seeing more balanced action at WynnBet:
- Rays (-200) vs Tigers (+180): 84% bets on Tampa/68% money on Detroit
- Marlins (-178) vs Nationals (+163): 77% bets on Miami/51% money on Washington
The game seeing the most one-way MLB betting action at PointsBet on Monday? That would be the White Sox (-121) at the Royals (+100). Ticket count is running 81% in Chicago’s direction, while 85% of the cash is on the visiting squad.
Over at WynnBet, Dodgers-DBacks is the most one-sided, with 85% of the wagers and 68% of the money on Los Angeles (-220) over Arizona (+190).
Split Decision
While WynnBet reports two-way action on Rays-Tigers and Marlins-Nationals, there’s only one such game at PointsBet: The Astros-Red Sox clash at Fenway Park. Although 65% of all wagers at PointsBet side with Houston (+110), 57% of the dollars are on Boston (-131). Interestingly, at WynnBet, a modest majority of tickets (57%) and very slight majority of dollars (51%) are with the Astros.
Looking at MLB betting patterns on totals, there’s a difference of opinion on four games at PointsBet:
- Astros-Red Sox (O/U 9): 54% bets on the Under/73% money on the Over
- Angels Rangers (O/U 8): 56% bets on the Over/82% money on the Under
- Giants-Rockies (O/U 12): 62% bets on the Under/73% money on the Over
- Twins-A’s (O/U 7.5): 54% bets on the Under/67% money on the Over
WynnBet is showing decisive two-way total action on four contests:
- Pirates-Cubs (O/U 8.5): 52% bets on the Under/85% money on the Over
- Giants-Rockies (O/U 12): 51% bets on the Under/81% money on the Over
Just one game at PointsBet is seeing heavy action in one direction regarding the total: DBacks vs Dodgers. With a pitching matchup of Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner against Los Angeles’ Tony Gonsolin, the total is 8.5 with slight juice (-115) to the Under. And the Under is seeing 81% of all wagers and 92% of the money.
WynnBet is more balanced on the DBacks-Dodgers total, with 58% of the tickets on the Under and 57% of the cash on the Over.
Worth noting: The Under cashed in all three Diamondbacks-Dodgers games in Arizona last month.
