Monday Best Bets: One MLB Total, Two MLB Props

Not exactly our finest effort with Best Bets last week. But we’re primed to bounce back like a baseball ricocheting off the foul pole for a home run.

Why the baseball analogy? The answer can be found in the headline. That’s right, after a flurry of Game 7s in the NBA or NHL over the weekend, both leagues press the pause button for Monday. So we rummaged through the day’s MLB matchups to find three quality Bests Bets.

There’s an MLB total and a pair of strikeout props on tap, so let’s dive into these Best Bets like Ricky Henderson swiping second base.

Best Bets Track Record

Friday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 82-82-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 25-26-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 21-33
NBA Props: 28-17
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0

MLB Total: Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros

The bet: Red Sox-Astros Under 9
The odds: +110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault, host of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast, is sticking to a betting theme that has served him well in the past month: Taking select teams Under the total.

Two teams that have been Under machines so far this season play each other on Monday night, so you better believe Perrault is taking Red Sox-Astros Under 9 total runs.

In a season that has seen a dearth of runs scored, Houston has been baseball’s No. 1 “Under” team, staying low in 25 of 35 games. The Red Sox are 20-11-3 to the Under, and Perrault isn’t buying into their offensive surge against the perpetually pitching-starved Rangers over the weekend (19 runs in three games).

Perrault acknowledges that we are looking at more hitter friendly weather right now compared with earlier in the season, but he still believes pitching will win out in this contest. It certainly has for Houston recently, as the Astros have not allowed more than three runs in 14 of their last 15 games.

You can find Boston-Houston Under 9 total runs at plus-money (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook.

MLB Prop: SP Noah Syndergaard (Los Angeles Angels)

The prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (at Texas)
The odds: -136
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Spencer Limbach

This strikeout prop seems too low for Syndergaard, and we like Over 4.5 Ks even if it means laying some decent juice. Here’s why this play is included in Monday’s Best Bets:

• Syndergaard has racked up six-plus strikeouts in two of his last three starts.
• His pitch count is up near 100 after hovering between 75-85 in his first three appearances this season.
• This is a buy-low spot for a pitcher who is clearly finding his strikeout groove

Sure, “Thor” isn’t the same flamethrowing strikeout machine from his prime years with the Mets. He has a much different pitching style following Tommy John surgery, decreasing his fastball velocity from an average of 97.5 mph to 94 mph so far this season. Still, his slider and changeup are plus-pitches with plenty of strikeout potential.

As you can see by his increasing pitching counts, the Angels are no longer handling Syndergaard with kid gloves. The right-hander has been between 88-to-100 pitches in his last three appearances.

Syndergaard’s opponent, the Texas Rangers, rank middle-of-the-pack in strikeout rate. Against the Rangers earlier this season (April 23), Syndergaard had four strikeouts in six innings of work. However, he only threw 82 pitches in that outing. If, as expected, he flits with the century mark in pitches Monday, he should have no problem fanning at least five free-swinging Rangers.

Put it all together, and there’s strong value on Syndergaard’s strikeout prop — even at the inflated juice.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: SP Antonio Senzatela (Colorado Rockies)

The bet: Under 2.5 strikeouts (vs. San Francisco)
The odds: -150
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The BetPrep Prop of the Day closed out last week with consecutive NBA winners Thursday and Friday. What can they do for an encore to kick off a new week of Best Bets?

For Monday, BetPrep is looking to the pitching rubber at Coors Field, playing Colorado Rockies RHP Antonio Senzatela Under 2.5 Ks against San Francisco.

Sure, it’s a short number with not a lot of wiggle room. But Senzatela has fallen short of three strikeouts in all five starts this season. Simply put, his pitch-to-contact style doesn’t yield many punchouts. It just so happens that his opponent, the Giants, don’t strike out much either. San Francisco has a 21.1 percent strikeout rate this season, which is the seventh-lowest in MLB.

You can find Senzatela Under 2.5 strikeouts (-150) at FanDuel Sportsbook.