This recurring article series will guide you through the best UFC props for each major upcoming slate.
In addition to free weekly picks and in-depth analysis, you’ll find additional strategy tips and other helpful hints below that could make you a more profitable UFC bettor. Make sure to check back here with us every week!
UFC Fight Night 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Looking for the best UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 bets? The Props crew compiles their favorite UFC prop picks for Saturday’s event.
Let’s outline the best UFC props for Saturday!
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
Max Holloway (26-8) and Dustin Poirier (30-9, 1 NC) are set to clash once again, this time with Holloway’s symbolic “BMF” belt on the line—a title that carries no official championship weight but plenty of pride. Their trilogy bout adds another layer to a rivalry that dates back over a decade and spans two weight classes.
Holloway’s recent run has been stellar, aside from his setbacks against Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria. After three failed attempts to dethrone Volkanovski at featherweight, Holloway tried to reclaim gold in a vacant title bout with Topuria at UFC 308 on October 26.
That ended in a stunning second-round knockout, marking the first time he had ever been finished. Still, Holloway earned the “BMF” title just months earlier with a highlight-reel win over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 on April 13, 2024.
Poirier, meanwhile, has alternated wins and losses in his last six appearances, showing both resilience and vulnerability at the top of the lightweight division.
Victories over Conor McGregor, Michael Chandler, and Benoit St. Denis stand alongside stoppage defeats to Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and Islam Makhachev. He remains one of the division’s most experienced and dangerous veterans.
Their rivalry began at UFC 143 on February 4, 2012, when Holloway—making his UFC debut—was submitted by Poirier via triangle armbar.
Over seven years later, at UFC 236 on April 13, 2019, they met again at lightweight, with Poirier winning a close five-round decision despite Holloway outlanding him over 25 minutes. Now, in their third meeting, both look to settle the score with the “BMF” title as the latest prize between them.
Holloway will approach the trilogy bout with a relentless pace, volume striking, and cardio that have defined his career. He’ll aim to drown Poirier with combinations and pressure, targeting the body and head with fluid boxing and output that builds over time. After being knocked out for the first time in his career, he’ll be more measured early, but his ability to maintain tempo into the later rounds will be key.
Poirier will rely on timing, power, and counter-punching to halt Holloway’s rhythm. He’s shown the ability to land damaging shots mid-combination, and his low kicks and boxing from southpaw remain dangerous weapons.
However, he has shown wear in prolonged wars, and recent stoppage losses suggest that durability may be slipping. If the fight becomes a drawn-out battle, his ability to manage Holloway’s pace becomes critical.
The fight could mirror elements of their second encounter—competitive and high-volume—but Holloway’s pace can start to take over in Rounds 4 and 5. Poirier may land the heavier shots early, but Holloway’s volume and durability can carry him through, allowing him to control the final stretch.
Holloway wins by unanimous decision and retains the symbolic belt after another grueling five-round war.
Pick: The Fight Will Go the Distance
Pick: Max Holloway By Points
Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen
In April 2024, Marvin Vettori (19-8-1) and Brendan Allen (24-7) were originally slated to headline UFC Fight Night 240.
However, Vettori withdrew due to injury less than a month out, leading to Chris Curtis stepping in and falling short in a rematch against Allen. Now, more than a year later, the UFC has officially rebooked the middleweight showdown between Vettori and Allen.
Vettori enters the bout on the first losing streak of his professional career, having dropped consecutive unanimous decisions to Jared Cannonier in 2023 and Roman Dolidze at UFC Fight Night 254 on March 15. Since challenging for the middleweight title in 2021 and falling short against Israel Adesanya, the Italian has only managed two victories.
Notably, Vettori has gone the distance in each of his last eight fights—six of which were five-round main events—highlighting his durability, but also his recent inability to finish opponents or decisively take control on the scorecards.
Allen, meanwhile, also comes into this bout on the first two-fight skid of his career. Back-to-back decision losses to Nassourdine Imavov in September and Anthony Hernandez at UFC Fight Night 252 on February 22 have cooled his momentum.
Prior to that, “All In” had put together a seven-fight winning streak that included four rear-naked choke submissions, with standout wins over submission specialists like Andre Muniz and Paul Craig.
Their rivalry hasn’t cooled in the time since their original fight fell through. After a heated buildup, tensions spilled into real life when the two clashed backstage at the Hard Rock Live in Florida during the 2024 PFL Playoffs 2, trading punches on the casino floor. Now, the grudge match is finally on—and both men are desperate to avoid a third straight loss.
Vettori will likely lean on his durability, forward pressure, and defensive grappling in this matchup. He’s gone the distance in eight straight fights—six of them five-rounders—proving he can absorb punishment and maintain output.
He’ll look to control the center, keep the fight standing, and break rhythm with volume and clinch work. However, his recent skid shows that while he’s tough, he struggles to create momentum or adjust when opponents disrupt his pace.
Allen will look to exploit those gaps with grappling transitions and submission threats. Despite his current two-fight losing streak, Allen’s previous seven-fight win streak showcased how dangerous he is on the mat—particularly with rear-naked chokes.
He’ll need to get past Vettori’s takedown defense and avoid being stuck in striking exchanges where his volume and chin may fall short. If he can create scrambles or force Vettori into awkward positions, his grappling becomes a major factor.
That said, I see Vettori outworking him on the feet, keeping a steady pace, and using his cardio to pull ahead in the final round. Vettori wins by unanimous decision in a tough, grinding contest.
Pick: The fight will go the distance
UFC Props – What to Consider When Picking Fighters
The UFC props and betting landscape has evolved far beyond simply picking a winner. With operators expanding their offerings, player picks have become a key part of the sharp player’s portfolio. Whether you’re targeting significant strikes, takedowns, or method of victory, mastering MMA props requires a strategic mindset and a stat-driven approach.
Here’s how to improve as an MMA prop bettor — from key data points to angles most casual fans overlook.
Know the Prop Menu
Player props in MMA typically revolve around individual fighter performance. Popular markets include:
- Significant strikes landed (O/U)
- Takedowns landed (O/U)
- Submission attempts
- Fight to end in a specific method (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC)
- Round-by-round performance props
- Fantasy points (on DFS sites)
Different books offer different lines, so line shopping is key — especially for niche markets like submission attempts or control time.
Understand Fighter Archetypes
A fighter’s style and tendencies often predict their statistical output:
- Volume Strikers: Think Max Holloway, Sean O’Malley — these fighters push pace and throw in bunches, making them great targets for significant strikes props.
- Wrestle-Heavy Grapplers: Fighters like Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes shoot often and control from top position. These matchups are gold for takedown and control time props.
- Submission Specialists: Fighters like Charles Oliveira or Gerald Meerschaert may attempt multiple submissions even off their backs, which boosts props for sub attempts or submission win.
Matchups between contrasting styles often create exploitable angles — for example, a striker with poor takedown defense vs. a relentless wrestler.
Key Stats to Track
Not all stats are created equal. When researching props, the following metrics matter most:
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) vs. Absorbed per Minute (SApM)
- Takedown Average (TD Avg.) and Takedown Accuracy/Defense
- Submission Attempt Rate
- Control Time vs. Control Time Allowed
- Pace Indicators: Fighter activity in past three fights, especially in three-round fights
- Fight Time Average: Correlates to volume props
Use sites like UFC Stats and Tape Index to break down tendencies and efficiency.
Dig Into Fight Context
Props aren’t just about the fighter — the opponent and circumstances are just as important:
- Short Notice Replacements: Often gas out early or have poor game plans. That can lead to early finishes or skew volume drastically.
- High Altitude: Events in Denver or Mexico City favor cardio machines and can cripple gassed-out strikers or grapplers.
- Judges and Cage Size: Smaller cages (like at the Apex) increase finishes and grappling exchanges. Certain states (like Texas or New York) have judging trends that favor aggression or control.
Also consider game plan. A striker facing a KO artist may use more lateral movement and fewer exchanges, lowering volume output.
Watch the Tape — Don’t Just Rely on Numbers
Numbers lie without context. One fighter may average 80 significant strikes per fight — but if it came from ground-and-pound in a dominant position, and they’re now facing a BJJ ace, that prop may not hit.
Watch how fighters approach certain matchups. Do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot? Do they jab to keep range or step into the pocket and throw 4-punch combos?
Visual tendencies often explain why a fighter hits or misses props in different matchups.
Pick Your Spots — Don’t Bet Every Prop
Prop markets are sharp. Don’t try to force a bet on every fight.
- Target exploitable mismatches, like grapplers vs. weak takedown defense.
- Bet unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates.
- Look for overs on high-paced matchups between cardio-heavy volume strikers.
Focus on fights where the data and the tape point in the same direction. Your edge comes from combining both.
Track Results and Adjust
The best prop bettors don’t just bet — they track. Keep a log of your prop bets, categorized by prop type (e.g., SS landed, takedowns, method of victory). Over time, patterns will emerge:
- Are you more successful with overs or unders?
- Are certain fighters reliable in specific markets?
- Are you overrating stylistic edges that don’t pan out?
Use your results to refine your process.
Final Thoughts
Player props in MMA offer serious value for bettors willing to dive deep. They reward film study, stylistic breakdowns, and stat analysis more than public narratives or name value. While the market is getting sharper, most bettors still overlook the nuanced stats that define fighter performance.
To stay ahead: track trends, watch tape, and keep evolving your process. The edge is there — it just takes more work to find.
More UFC Betting Tips and Strategy
MMA, particularly UFC, has exploded in popularity across online sportsbooks, with fans placing bets on everything from UFC Fight Night matchups to major pay-per-view events, as well as other promotions like Professional Fighters League (PFL) and ONE Championship.
How to Bet on UFC Fights
While the range of MMA betting markets isn’t quite as broad as other sports, especially for lower-profile fights, most UFC matchups feature three core wagering options:
Moneyline: Betting on the Winner
The most common MMA bet is the moneyline, where you pick which fighter will win. Sportsbooks calculate implied probabilities based on fighter form, matchups, and momentum to set the odds.
Example:
Jon Jones is the current champion on a six-fight win streak, including four knockouts.
Ciryl Gane is a seasoned vet but has lost three of his last five, two by knockout.
Implied probabilities:
- Jon Jones: 75–80% (set as the favorite)
- Ciryl Gane: 25–30% (set as the underdog)
Odds:
- Jon Jones: -300 (Bet $300 to win $100)
- Ciryl Gane: +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
Some books also offer three-way moneylines, including the option to bet on a Draw, which is rare but comes with longer odds and bigger payouts.
Round Totals: Over/Under Bets
Round total bets let you wager on how long the fight will last — essentially, whether the fight ends before or after a set round mark.
Example:
Fight: Zhang Weili vs. Angela Hill (5-round title bout)
Round total set at 3.5 rounds (equivalent to 2:30 of Round 3)
Due to Zhang Weili’s knockout power and Angela Hill’s recent KO losses, the Under is favored:
- Over 3.5 rounds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Under 3.5 rounds: -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)
Method of Victory Props
For higher payouts, you can bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Available options typically include:
- Win by KO/TKO/DQ
- Win by Submission
- Win by Decision
Because these bets require both the right winner and method, they’re harder to predict — but they pay more. A knockout artist’s KO odds will carry a lower payout than a submission, while a submission specialist may be favored to win that way or via decision.