After losing 8-3 to Minnesota on Patriot’s Day, the Red Sox will look to bounce back in Tuesday’s opener of a three-game division series against Toronto. Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds show Boston as a modest favorite (-140), with the boys from Beantown looking to exploit an interesting matchup at Fenway Park.
Toronto starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi looked shaky in his first start of the season against the Yankees on April 12 (3.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER). Facing a capable Boston offense chock-full of powerful right-handed bats isn’t exactly a cushy bounce-back situation for Kikucki — especially with those bats taking aim at the Green Monster in left field.
On the other side, Boston RHP Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t had pinpoint stuff through his first two starts of 2022. The most startling statistic for Eovaldi: He’s coughed up four homers across just 10 innings. (Cut to Blue Jays sluggers Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel, and Matt Chapman licking their chops.)
There’s a reason the total in this one is north of nine runs, despite Boston’s early-inning shortcomings with the bat. Props.com examines that total as well as other Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds and ends in the marquee American League matchup on Tuesday’s MLB odds board.
Odds via PointsBet USA and updated as of 4:50 p.m. ET on April 19.
Toronto Blue Jays (6-4) vs Boston Red Sox (5-5)
First Pitch/TV: 7:10 p.m. ET/MLB.TV
Moneyline: Red Sox -140/Blue Jays +120
Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+135)/Blue Jays +1.5 (-160)
Total: 9.5 (Under -121)
Pitching matchup: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 5.40 ERA, 2.10 WHIP) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
Season series: First meeting. The Red Sox went 10-9 against Toronto last year, including 5-4 at Fenway Park.
Did you know: Although they won four of the final five meetings in 2021, the Blue Jays haven’t won a season series against Boston since going 10-9 in 2016. Toronto is also just 13-27 in its last 40 games at Fenway.
About the Blue Jays
Hits & Misses: Toronto opened the season by taking two of three against the Rangers at home, then split a four-game series with the Yankees in New York. Over the weekend, the Blue Jays again won two of three games at home, this time against the Oakland Athletics. Early on, Toronto’s offense ranks in the top 10 in several offensive categories, including seventh in wRC+. The Blue Jays are also third in MLB with 14 homers, which isn’t a surprise considering the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 home-run title (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) dons a Blue Jays hat.
On the Mound: Kikuchi was traded to Toronto from Seattle in the offseason, and he made his first start for the Blue Jays last Tuesday at the Yankees. The result was a mixed bag, as the left-hander gave up five hits and two earned runs with a pair of strikeouts in 3.1 innings (84 pitches). Over his career, Kikucki holds an inflated 4.98 ERA with a relatively low 8.00 K/9 rate. In his lone career start at Fenway Park nearly a year ago, the 30-year-old from Japan gave up five runs on six hits (including two homers) in 4.2 innings, losing 6-5. Behind Kikuchi is a Blue Jays bullpen that has baseball’s 13th-best ERA (3.38) after ranking 12th in cumulative WAR last season.
Injuries: OF Teoscar Hernandez (oblique) and C Danny Jansen (oblique) are both out indefinitely for Toronto.
About the Red Sox
Hits & Misses: Prior to Monday’s loss to Minnesota, Boston had been on a 5-2 roll dating to its April 10 series finale in New York. Following 4-3 Sunday night victory in the Bronx, the Red Sox took two of three in Detroit, then won two of their first three against the Twins at home. Early offensive production has been an issue for Boston, which is hitting just .170 with five walks and 31 strikeouts in the first three innings of games this season. The Red Sox rank outside the top 10 in several offensive categories, including 16th in OPS (.685). They’re also 21st in team ERA (4.15).
On the Mound: Eovaldi notched a combined 13 strikeouts in 10 innings in his first two starts against the Yankees and Tigers. That’s the good news. The bad: He allowed nine hits and five earned runs, including those aforementioned four long balls. Eovaldi faced Toronto twice last season with completely different results. In mid-June, he tossed 6.2 shutout innings allowing just three hits and one walk in a 2-1 home win. Then in early August in Toronto, the veteran right-hander got shellacked for seven runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings, losing 12-4. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox bullpen that is 17th in MLB in ERA (3.48) after ranking 11th in cumulative WAR in 2021.
Injuries: RP Josh Taylor is on the 10-day injured list with a back ailment.
Notable Trends
- Toronto is 4-0 in its last four series openers
- Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine as an underdog
- Boston has scored four or fewer runs in six of its last seven against Toronto
- Boston is 39-19 in its last 58 as a home favorite
- Under is 5-2 in Toronto’s last seven overall and 9-1 in its last 10 road games
- Under is 94-1 in the last five Blue Jays-Red Sox battles at Fenway Park
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Odds and Action
UPDATE 1:55 P.M. ET TUESDAY: PointsBet USA installed Boston as a -140 favorite late Monday and very briefly jumped to -145 and -155 this morning before dialing back to -140, where the odds currently sit. There’s two-way action on the moneyline, with 52% of wagers on the Blue Jays and 58% of cash on the Red Sox. The total opened at 9.5 (Under -125). After modest juice adjustments ranging from -120 to -130 on the Under, the total is now at 9.5 (Under -121), with 52% of tickets and 73% of money on the Under.
