We touched on why the Broncos offense is a strong target for NFL player props this weekend against a porous Jaguars defense, and that same logic applies to the Tampa Bay offense going against Atlanta.
There’s value to be had for your NFL player prop bets on Sunday, so let’s dig into it.
Matchup At A Glance
You know how good the Bucs are. Super Bowl champs, all 22 starters returned, 31 points in their season opener.
Few offenses are deeper than what Tampa Bay has: a trio of elite receivers, strong pass-catching tight ends, strong offensive line, the best quarterback of all time, and very capable runners.
On the other end, Atlanta should be one of the worst defenses in the NFL by season’s end.
They were poor last season, and let up 32 points and 434 yards to the Eagles in Week 1.
The secondary and defensive line units are significant weaknesses in Atlanta. The Falcons couldn’t slow down the Philadelphia receivers or get any push in the trenches.
Against a team of Tampa Bay’s caliber, with strong run blocking and loaded weapons in the passing game, it could be a long day for the Falcons defense and a profitable one if you bet on the Buccaneers offense.
NFL Player Props To Consider: Tampa Bay
I admit it’s a double-edged sword when considering a player prop on this deep Buccaneers offense.
On one hand, there are so many capable players that it’s hard to know who is in for a big game.
On the other, the presence of so many weapons deflates many of the lines for player props, making the picks a lot more reasonable.
The Falcons defense is equally susceptible to success on the ground or through the air, but I’m going to focus on the run game on Sunday. Atlanta allowed 5.6 yards per rush to Philadelphia last week, the third-worst mark in the NFL.
Their defensive line is a real weakness, and the Buccaneers should be able to run with ease.
BetPrep is an awesome resource for player props, and they have info for my favorite target of this game: Leonard Fournette.
Fournette was the clear top runner in this rotation in Week 1, playing 65% of the snaps and finishing with a combined 16 carries and targets.
His current rushing yardage line is listed at 45.5 yards, and his odds to score a touchdown are -105.
BetPrep projects Fournette to finish with 57.03 rushing yards, which is significantly higher than his current total at most sportsbooks.
Fournette got plenty of work near the goal line in Week 1, finishing with five carries/targets. In what is expected to be a blowout victory, game script suggests plenty of running in Tampa Bay.
Final Word
Take Fournette confidently, I like both his yards and to score. I’m not worried about Ronald Jones, who played just 9% of offensive snaps in Week 1.
This is Fournette’s backfield, and in a prime matchup, he seems bound for a big day.
Picks:
- Fournette OVER 45.5 rushing yards
- Fournette TD (-105)
For more NFL betting info, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets. Good luck this weekend!
