You want a preview of a potential Eastern Conference finals matchup between two teams still fighting for top-tier playoff positioning? The Thursday NBA odds board delivers just that, with the Boston Celtics visiting the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Celtics currently occupy second place in the East, but only by a whisker over Milwaukee and Philadelphia, which are tied for third.
While Boston-Milwaukee is the most significant among the seven games on the Thursday NBA odds board, it’s hardly the only intriguing battle. Out West, one playoff-bound team coasting to the finish line (Memphis Grizzlies) faces another (Denver Nuggets) that needs a win to avoid the NBA play-in tournament.
Props.com breaks down both matchups from a wagering perspective in our Thursday NBA betting preview.
Odds via WynnBet and updated as of noon ET on April 7.
Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff/TV: 7:40 p.m. ET/TNT
Celtics: 50-30 SU/43-36-1 ATS
Bucks: 49-30 SU/38-41 ATS
Spread/Total: Bucks -8.5/227.5
Season series: These teams met three times between mid-November and Christmas Day, with the home team winning each game. After the Celtics pulled out victories in Boston on Nov. 12 (122-113 in overtime) and Dec. 13 (117-103), the Bucks scored a 117-113 home victory Dec. 25.
Did you know: Boston has covered the spread in all three meetings this season and six straight dating to Dec. 23, 2020. Going back to October 30, 2019, the Celtics are 8-1 ATS against Milwaukee (7-1 ATS as an underdog).
About Boston: The Celtics kept alive their faint hopes of catching first-place Miami atop the Eastern Conference — and snapped a three-way tie for second place — with Wednesday’s 117-94 rout of the Bulls in Chicago. Boston easily cashed as an 8-point road chalk, improving to 12-5 ATS in its last 17 outings overall. Going back to Jan. 22, the Celtics are 27-6 SU/21-12 ATS, including 14-3 SU/12-5 ATS on the road. With two regular-season games remaining, Boston is two games behind Miami (52-28) in the East and a half-game ahead of both Milwaukee and Philadelphia (both 49-30). If the Celtics and Heat tie for the top spot, Boston would get the No. 1 seed by virtue of going 2-1 this season against Miami.
Editor’s Note: Looking to become a sharper NBA bettor? Check out our NBA betting guide for a few wagering tips.
About Milwaukee: The Bucks went 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS from Feb. 28-March 16, but they’ve since been spinning their wheels, going 5-4 SU/ATS. Milwaukee preceded the Celtics with a trip to Chicago on Tuesday and housed the Bulls 127-108 as a 6.5-point favorite. On the downside, the Bucks were upset in their last two games. They got blitzed 153-119 by the Clippers on Friday, then fell to Dallas 118-112 as a 6.5-point chalk on Sunday. Prior to those two contests, Milwaukee had won six consecutive home games (5-1 ATS). As noted above, the Bucks are tied with the 76ers for third place in the East. The Bucks cannot finish as the conference’s top seed, as the best they can do is tie Miami, which owns the tiebreaker. Milwaukee would win a head-to-head tiebreaker against Philadelphia, while any tiebreaker against Boston will be determined by the result of Thursday’s game.
Injuries: Other than backup center Robert Williams, who is out for at least a month after having knee surgery, the Celtics have no key players listed on their injury report. However, this afternoon brought news that Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will both rest tonight, which impacted the Thursday NBA odds market for this game (see below). … Bucks superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (right knee soreness) is once again on the injury report but listed as probable and is expected to play. Guard Grayson Allen (11.1 points, 3.4 rebounds per game) is doubtful with a left hip issue.
Notable Trends
- Boston is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine as an underdog
- Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing a back-to-back
- Milwaukee is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite
- Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 when playing on one day of rest
- Over for Boston is on runs of 8-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog and 10-1 when playing a back-to-back
- Over for Milwaukee is on runs of 4-1 overall, 11-5 at home and 4-0 as a favorite
- Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Milwaukee
- Over in this series is on runs of 7-1 overall and 5-0 when playing in Milwaukee
Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET: Early this afternoon, Milwaukee shot from -7 straight to -9 in WynnBet’s Thursday NBA odds market, on the aforementioned news that Boston is resting Tatum and Horford. The line then nudged down to -8.5, but that’s still a long way from where this number started, at Bucks -3 late Wednesday morning. Point-spread ticket count is almost 3/1 Celtics, but spread money is just shy of 2/1 Bucks. The total opened at 226.5, peaked at 228 a couple of times, bottomed out at 226 and is now 227.5. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Over.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets
Tipoff/TV: 9:10 p.m. ET/NBA League Pass
Grizzlies: 55-24 SU/51-27-1 ATS
Nuggets: 47-33 SU/35-44-1 ATS
Spread/Total: Nuggets -4.5/232.5
Season series: Memphis has won all three clashes both SU and ATS. The teams started November with two meetings in three days in Tennessee, with the Grizzlies prevailing 106-97 (as a 1.5-point favorite) and 108-106 (as a 1-point underdog). Memphis then went to Denver on Jan. 21 and held on for a 122-118 win as a 3.5- point road ’dog).
Did you know: The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Nuggets. Memphis was an underdog in five of those contests and a slim favorite (-1 and -1.5) in the other two.
About Memphis: The Grizzlies have essentially been playing out the string for weeks, their position as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference all but assured since mid-March. Yet despite having nothing on the line — and despite dealing with a rash of injuries to key players — Memphis continues to play winning basketball. Although their seven-game SU winning streak ended with Tuesday’s 121-115 overtime loss at Utah as a 6-point underdog, the Grizzlies are still 11-2 SU/8-4-1 ATS in their last 13. They also have wrapped up the NBA’s point-spread crown, as their 51-27-1 ATS mark (64.6%) tops Oklahoma City’s 48-28-4 ATS record (60.0%). That said, Memphis has been in an ATS rut on the road recently, going just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight as a visitor. As the No. 2 seed, the Grizzlies are assured of home-court advantage through at least their first two playoff series.
About Denver: With two regular-season games remaining, the Nuggets find themselves in a precarious position in the West standings. Denver is one game behind fifth-place Utah and two games clear of seventh-place Minnesota. However, the Nuggets lose the tiebreaker to both teams, which means they must pick up at least one more victory to be assured of avoiding the NBA play-in tournament. If they lose to Memphis tonight and the Lakers on Sunday, and the TWolves win their final two contests, the Nuggets would slip to the seventh spot. Denver is in this pickle because it laid an egg against San Antonio on Tuesday, losing 116-97 as a 9-point home favorite. The Nuggets have been a point-spread disaster in recent weeks, going 5-11 ATS in their last 16, including 1-8 ATS at home.
Injuries: All-Star guard and leading scorer Ja Morant (knee) is expected to miss his ninth consecutive game for Memphis, while fellow guard Dillon Brooks (right hip) is questionable. Brooks, who averages 18.5 points and 3.3 rebounds per game, sat out Tuesday’s game at Utah. … Denver forward Jeff Green (10.3 points, 3.1 rebounds per game) is questionable after missing the past two games for personal reasons. The Nuggets’ other key players are healthy and expected to play.
Notable Trends
- Memphis is on ATS runs of 41-18-1 overall, 15-5-1 as an underdog and 22-7 when playing on one day of rest
- Denver is 4-10 ATS in its last 10 as a favorite
- Denver is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 at home
- Over is 7-2 in Memphis’ last nine as an underdog
- Over for Denver is on runs of 8-3 overall and 20-8-2 at home
- Under is 5-2 in the last seven Grizzlies-Nuggets clashes overall
- Over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings in Denver
Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET: Denver hit WynnBet’s Thursday NBA odds board as a slim 1-point chalk late Wednesday morning, quickly climbed to -2, then stretched as far as -5 late this morning. The Nuggets have been at -4.5 since early this afternoon, while taking 53% of spread bets that are translating into 85% of spread money. The total opened at 233.5, dipped to 232 Wednesday night, then went to 232.5 at lunchtime and stuck there, with 63% of bets/69% of cash on the Over.