Friday Best Bets: Two NHL Wagers, Two NBA Plays

Thursday was another winning day for the Props.com Best Bets series, although the profit margin was thin with a 2-1-1 record. Hey, we’ll take it!

The Bostonian vs. The Book is still technically undefeated (2-0-1) after Thursday’s push with the Penguins-Lightning total.

Meanwhile, we seem to be on to something with NBA props, moving to 3-0 thanks to Stephen Curry sinking more than 3.5 treys Thursday night at Dallas.

But to remind, we’re just having a little fun here, and hope you are, too. Which is to say: Don’t beat us over the head when the rough days start rolling in. Because they will. And probably more often than not!

With that said, on to our Friday Best Bets.

Track Record

Thursday: 2-1-1
Year-To-Date: 7-3-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 2-0-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 1-2
NBA Props: 3-0
NHL Props: 1-1

NHL Total: New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers

The bet: Devils-Rangers Over 6 goals
The odds: -115
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book Podcast

Two third-period Penguins goals salvaged a push for Perrault in Thursday’s action, with Pittsburgh ripping Tampa Bay 5-1 to get a refund on the total of 6. Perrault is sticking with an NHL total again tonight, this time on Devils-Rangers.

“The Rangers are playing well, while the Devils are dog doo, giving up goals, goals, goals,” Perrault said.

“[With the] Devils, we’re just gonna keep riding this Over, despite the fact that [Igor] Shesterkin is going to win the Vezina,” responded Dave Sharapan, co-host of The Bostonian vs. The Book, alluding to the New York goalie’s strong season in progress.

To which Perrault said: “He gives up two goals tonight, that’s my prediction. I need two Devils [goals].”

“If he gives up two, we’re good. If he gives up three or more, were in-in,” Sharapan said. “The Devils can score ’em, but man, they give it up. Let’s go Over.”

Perrault listed two other bets he likes during today’s Bostonian vs. The Book podcast, including a college basketball conference tournament play. You can listen to the replay on Youtube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

NHL Prop: Minnesota Wild C Ryan Hartman

The bet: Over  2.5 shots (at Buffalo)
The odds: +108
Where to bet: FanDuel
From: Dan Bradley via Friday NHL Props

The recency bias is strong in the odds here, as Hartman has stayed Under 2.5 shots in four of his last five games. However, he’s still averaging exactly three shots per game over the course of the season, and he put up six shots (and two goals) during Thursday’s 5-4 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.

Hartman has hit the Over on this prop in 30 of 52 games this season, including 21 of 33 when the Wild are favored. Even better, he’s put at least three pucks on net 69.2 percent of the time when facing teams with a losing record (averaging 3.5 shots per contest in that scenario). Lest we remind you that Buffalo absolutely has a losing record.

Speaking of the Sabres, they yield 34.3 shots per game, third-most in the league, and they’ve allowed their opponents’ first-line center to record at least three shots in four of the last six contests. How many shots did Buffalo surrender to Hartman when these teams faced off in mid-December? Five. And Minnesota actually lost that game, 3-2 at home.

NBA Prop: Utah Jazz G Donovan Mitchell

The bet: Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (at New Orleans)
The odds: +105
Where to bet: DraftKings
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

BetPrep’s Thursday NBA Prop of the Day didn’t quite get there, with Grizzlies center Steven Adams falling short of 10.5 rebounds, finishing with eight against the Celtics. BetPrep will look to rebound by backing Mitchell to hit more than 3.5 treys tonight against the Pelicans

Since missing some time in January, Mitchell has been on a tear over his last nine games, averaging 4.7 made 3-pointers in seven of those contests. He’s also averaging five made 3s in his last three road games, and 5.2 triples in his last six games versus Western Conference foes.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ perimeter defense has been lacking, as they allow shooting guards to drain 4.6 shots from beyond the arc per game. That’s the third-most in the NBA.

NBA Prop: Milwaukee Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo

The bet: Over 48.5 points/rebounds/assists
The odds: -115
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Jay Clemons via Friday NBA Props

The juice on this prop suggests the Under is the safe play. However, the stats suggest that’s insane.

Antetokounmpo rolls into the Windy City averaging an otherworldly 51.2 points/rebounds/assists in his last 10 games. And that includes a clunker of 33 in a blowout loss to the Suns three weeks ago.

During this productive stretch, the Greek Freak cleared this 48.5 total six times, highlighted by efforts of 68 (vs. Indiana), 66 (at L.A. Lakers), and 59 (vs. Washington).

The two-time NBA MVP is averaging 31.6 points in his last 24 games; he’s collected nine or more rebounds 14 times in his last 15 outings; and he’s dished out at least five assists in nine of his last 10.

You can snag the best price on this prop at DraftKings Sportsbook.