Scored two easy NHL props winners Monday in the Kraken-Canucks game, as both Seattle’s Jared McCann and Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes got the job done. Unfortunately, our three other NHL props recommendations came up short.
The good news: Another six games are on the NHL docket tonight, so let’s see if we can bat better than .400 with our five NHL props Tuesday plays.
Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel updated 11:00 a.m. ET on Feb. 22.
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Columbus Blue Jackets: D Zach Werenski
The Prop: 2.5 Total Shots (vs. Toronto)
The Odds: Over -168/Under +124
On paper, the Over here looks like a no-brainer. Werenski leads Columbus in shots with 150, averaging a bit more than three per game. He’s also cleared this prop number in each of his past five games.
So why consider the Under? Because the Blue Jackets are playing at home, where Werenski has been far less aggressive this season. The stats: 62 shots in 23 home games; 88 shots in 24 road outings. And while he’s gone Over 2.5 shots a whopping 19 times in those 24 road contests — including nine of the last 10 — he’s done so on just 10 occasions in Columbus.
As for Tuesday’s opponent, the Maple Leafs have yielded an average of 30.6 shots in their past 10 games. However, that number is skewed by a 46-shot effort by the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday (and Toronto managed to win that game 4-1). Drop that from the equation, and the Leafs’ recent shots-allowed average falls to 28.8 in their past nine contests.
Furthermore, Toronto has limited four of its past six opponents to 26 shots are less. Take the generous plus-money on this prop and see if Toronto can keep Werenski in check.
Editor’s Note: New to NHL props? Get up to speed with our complete NHL Props Betting Guide!
Florida Panthers: C Aleksander Barkov
The Prop: 3.5 Total Shots (vs. Nashville)
The Odds: Over +135/Under -155
Barkov has gone Over this number seven times in his past 10 games. Unfortunately, he’s only done so once in his last four outings. He’s also reached the four-shot mark in just seven of 16 home contests. That said, there’s still reason to get excited about the prospect of the Florida Panthers’ forward peppering the net with pucks tonight.
this move by Barkov pic.twitter.com/Lmf5Lj9hs5
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) February 17, 2022
He’s averaging 3.27 shots per game overall, second on the team behind Sam Bennett (3.28). Also, in 16 games against Western Conference opponents, Barkov has gone Over 3.5 shots 11 times (68.75%).
Nashville is averaging 31.6 shots-against per game this season, but they’re up to 33.2 over their past 10 games. At the same time, Florida fires more shots on net per game (36.2) than any other NHL team.
St. Louis Blues: LW Vladimir Tarasenko
The Prop: 0.5 Goals Scored (at Philadelphia)
The Odds: Over +194/Under -245
Tarasenko’s opportunity to score largely will depend on which version of the Flyers shows up Tuesday night.
In goaltender Carter Hart’s last six starts, the Flyers allowed 33 or more shots five times. Hart has also surrendered three goals or more in four of those six.
On the Blues’ end, Tarasenko has four goals and two assists in the last five games. He missed Saturday’s game against Toronto but is expected to be back in the lineup Tuesday.
Vladimir Tarasenko is now leading the team in points. Seattle could have taken him for free… don’t think any of us could have hoped for a season this good from #91.
The Russian Sniper is FULLY BACK #stlblues pic.twitter.com/K0iUzrQXBk
— Gateway Grinders (@gatewaygrinders) February 16, 2022
This season, Tarasenko leads all Blues forwards in shots on goal (143), power play time on ice (122:55), and offensive zone start percentage (73.23%). Translation: He should see a ton of opportunities to score. Look for him to cash in on at least one of those chances and pick up just his second career goal in 11 games against the Flyers.
Minnesota Wild: LW Kirill Kaprizov
The Prop: 3.5 Total Shots (at Ottawa)
The Odds: Over -116/Under -116
Shots on goal is the theme of the day, and no one on the Minnesota Wild puts more pucks on net than “Dolla Bill Kirill.”
Kaprizov has gone Over this prop 10 times in 17 games against Eastern Conference opponents. He also averages 3.67 shots per game, putting him in the Top 10 among NHL skaters in that category.
At the other end of the ice, the Ottawa Senators allow the sixth-most shots on goal per game (33.7). That average jumps to 34.9 over the past 10 games, a stretch in which nine of 10 Sens opponents have eclipsed 30 shots.
Kaprizov accounts for 11.1% of the Wild’s shots on goal this season. Using Ottawa’s recent 34.9 shots-against average Ottawa, Kaprizov should account for 3.87 shots against the Senators on Tuesday. Count on the Minnesota playmaker to hit the Over here while bucking a trend that has seen him top this prop in just nine of 26 road games.
New York Islanders: C Mathew Barzal
The Prop: 0.5 Total Assists (at Seattle)
The Odds: Over +128/Under -158
The Islanders’ offense has been anemic this season — and that’s being kind. New York is scoring the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.44) on the fourth-fewest shots (28.9). But Tuesday’s showdown with the Kraken could be just what the doctor ordered.
The reason? Seattle has the league’s worst rate of 5-on-5 goals against (125) to expected goals against (94.34). The expansion Kraken also own the sixth-worst goals-against average at 3.54.
Here’s how that applies to Barzal: He leads the Islanders with 21 assists this season, and he’s recorded at least one helper 14 times in 27 games when New York is the favorite and eight times in 18 contests against Western Conference opponents. He also has assists in three of his past four games.
Finally, there’s a revenge situation in play here. Back on Feb. 2, New York became the first team to get shutout by Seattle, losing 3-0 on their home ice. Expect that result to fuel the Isles and lead to a rare aggressive plan of attack — with Barzal at the center of it.
