College basketball national championship odds are starting to percolate, with the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and March Madness on the horizon. No real surprise, Gonzaga remains atop the NCAA Tournament odds market, and also returned to the top of the AP Top 25 poll this week.
Gonzaga lost to Baylor in last season’s national championship game. Oddsmakers wouldn’t mind if the Zags got back there again this year and finished the job.
BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini helps Props.com dive into college basketball futures odds and current action.
2021-22 College Basketball National Championship Odds
| Team | Odds |
| Gonzaga | +450 |
| Kentucky | +800 |
| Duke | +1,000 |
| Purdue | +1,000 |
| Auburn | +1,000 |
| Arizona | +1,000 |
| Baylor | +1,400 |
| Kansas | +1,400 |
| UCLA | +1,800 |
| Villanova | +1,800 |
| Illinois | +2,000 |
| Texas Tech | +3,000 |
| Houston | +3,000 |
| Alabama | +4,000 |
| Texas | +4,000 |
| Ohio State | +5,000 |
| Michigan State | +5,000 |
Odds via BetMGM and updated as of Noon ET on Feb. 15.
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The Price Is Tight
When you’re near the top of the March Madness odds board, there’s not a whole lot of room to improve. But what little there is, Gonzaga and Kentucky found over the past two weeks.
Gonzaga — which after a three-week stint at No. 2 has returned to No. 1 in the AP rankings — never left No. 1 in the eyes of oddsmakers. But since Jan. 31, the Bulldogs (21-2 SU) shortened their price from +550 to +450 at BetMGM (after opening at + 600).
Also on Jan. 31, Kentucky was +1,200 in the college basketball futures market, trailing not only Gonzaga but a four-team cluster at +1,000 (Baylor, Duke, Purdue, and Auburn). Today, the Wildcats (21-4 SU) are the clear-cut second choice at +800 at BetMGM, thanks to an ongoing six-game winning streak.
Interestingly, No. 4 Kentucky is a slight road underdog entering tonight’s key SEC showdown at No. 16 Tennessee. Should the Wildcats’ winning streak end in Knoxville, they likely will slide back in the national championship market.
Good and Bad
So with Selection Sunday less than four weeks out, which teams provide good outcomes in the college basketball national championship odds market? Well, for starters, BetMGM’s trading team wouldn’t mind seeing the favorite cut down the nets in New Orleans on April 4.
“Gonzaga is still good. Duke, Kansas, Baylor and ‘Nova are all good,” Cipollini said.
Duke (21-4) is in a four-team logjam with Purdue (22-4), Arizona (22-2) and Auburn (23-2), all +1,000 co-third choices at BetMGM. Among that group, Auburn has taken the longest journey, having opened the season at +5,000 and eventually stretching to +6,000. (The Tigers also have been one of the top spread-covering outfits at 18-7 ATS, tied for fourth-best in the nation.)
Kansas (20-4) and Baylor (21-4) follow as the +1,400 co-seventh choices. And Villanova (19-6) is tied at +1,800 with UCLA (17-5).
The downside for the book includes two teams that have shot up the March Madness futures board.
“Auburn, Arizona and Kentucky would be the biggest losers of the [top] contenders,” Cipollini said.
Like Auburn, Arizona opened the year at +5,000, while blueblood Kentucky opened much shorter at +1,600.
Ticket Takers and (Maybe) Money Makers
Purdue is considered the best of the Big Ten, even after an embarrassing 82-58 loss at Michigan on Feb. 10, followed by Sunday’s nail-biting 62-61 home win over Maryland. Despite their recent struggles, the Boilermakers remain quite popular at the betting window.
“Our most-bet-on team is Purdue,” Cipollini said, noting the Boilermakers are No. 1 in ticket count and tied for second in money with Kentucky. The Wildcats are No. 2 in tickets, followed by another group of Wildcats, Arizona.
Arizona is No. 1 in money, just barely ahead of Purdue and Kentucky. Auburn stands No. 4 in tickets and money, and Gonzaga is No. 5 in both respects.
Michigan and Memphis didn’t start the season as long shots, but they are now. The Wolverines opened +1,000 and the Tigers +1,500; both are currently +10,000. Cipollini said those two teams are the most-bet long shots, though surely a chunk of that money came early, when expectations were much higher for Michigan (13-10 SU) and Memphis (14-8).
Currently, the Wolverines are taking the seventh-most tickets and money.