The NFL regular season is finally here, and we have plenty of great matchups to kick things off in Week 1.
Within that, we can find an abundance of player props worth targeting. Below are four NFL Quarterback Props to pursue in Week 1.
Teddy Bridgewater – Over 198.5 Passing Yards
New Broncos starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is a great bet to hit the over against the Giants in Week 1. In 15 starts last season with the Panthers he was over that number in 11 games, or 73 percent of the time.
Those numbers came without a healthy Christian McCaffrey and far fewer weapons at wide receiver than he now has in Denver. Meanwhile, the Giants gave up at least that many yards to 12 quarterbacks last season.
The only thing that could derail Bridgewater is if Drew Lock also plays, but that sounds unlikely.
Baker Mayfield – Under 257.5 Passing Yards
The last time we saw Baker Mayfield, he was losing at Kansas City and throwing for 204 yards. The next time we see him he’ll also be at Kansas City, and it will be a tall ask for him to get over 257 yards passing.
The Browns do not want a shootout with the Chiefs, and will rely heavily on running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs have a good secondary but are less solid against the run, and that will be reflected in the run/pass the Cleveland offense will roll out.
Even in big wins, like the 48-37 shootout in the playoffs against the Steelers last year, Mayfield only had 263 yards. In 11 games of 18 games last year he was under the 257.5 line, and he’ll be under again in Week 1.
Tua Tagovailoa – Over 242.5 Passing Yards
With the Patriots missing top cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and the Dolphins introducing a more explosive passing attack with rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, and the continued growth of tight end Mike Gesicki, look for Tua Tagovailoa to hit the over.
He hit that over in four of nine starts in 2020 and closed his short rookie season with three big games in his final five weeks – 296 against the Bengals, 316 against the Chiefs, and 361 against the Bills.
New England allowed eight quarterbacks to break 242 yards in 2020, and Tua will do it to begin 2021.
Jameis Winston – Under 242.5 Yards
In Jameis Winston’s final season with the Buccaneers, the last time he was a starter, he threw for 5,109 yards and broke 242 yards 12 times. But his circumstances this week, as he begins his tenure as the Saints starter, couldn’t be more different.
That 2019 Bucs team had Chris Godwin and Mike Evans combine for 2,490 yards. This Saints team will start Marquez Callaway and Tre-Quan Smith at wide receiver. Callaway had 213 yards last year as a rookie, and Smith had a career-high 448 yards in 2020.
With the Bucs he averaged nearly 40 passing attempts per game. With the Saints he has Alvin Kamara, who needs to be fed on the ground, as well as Taysom Hill, who will steal a few pass attempts.
Plus this week the Saints are losing a home game, and will instead host the Packers in Jacksonville.
