Super Bowl props are now filling odds boards at sportsbooks from coast to coast, in advance of Sunday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
Throughout the week leading up to Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, California, Props.com will offer up our five favorite Super Bowl props for each team’s skill position group on offense, as well as our top five defensive, kicker/punter, and special teams props. We’ll also break down five game-specific props; best bets for player to score the first touchdown; and even our favorite cross-sport props.
Yes, consider us your one-stop prop shop for Rams vs. Bengals. So be sure to check back all week for comprehensive and (we hope!) compelling Super Bowl 56 betting coverage.
First up: Our top five Super Bowl props involving Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Odds via The SuperBook and updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Feb. 7.
Total Passing Yards
The prop: 285.5
The odds: Over -110/Under -110
It took Stafford 12 years to earn his first playoff victory, and he didn’t have to do much to get it. While deer-in-headlights Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray treated the football like a ticking bomb in the wild-card round, Stafford went a pedestrian 13-for-17 for 202 yards in a 34-11 triumph.
In two games since, though, Stafford’s cannon of a right arm kept Los Angeles’ season alive. He passed for 366 yards in a roller-coaster 30-27 last-second win at Tampa Bay, and 337 yards against the 49ers in a come-from-behind, 20-17 NFC title-clinching victory.
Including the playoffs, Stafford has topped 285 passing yards in 12 of 20 games overall, including six of 10 at SoFi Stadium. The 2009 No. 1 overall draft pick also came within 10 yards of this prop number twice (278 yards in Week 2 at Indianapolis; 280 yards in Week 4 vs. Arizona).
What kind of defense will Stafford face in the biggest game of his life? One that held Patrick Mahomes to 275 passing yards in the AFC Championship Game … and 259 yards in a Week 17 home victory. In fact, in their last 12 games (playoffs included), the Bengals have allowed just three quarterbacks to pass for more than 285 yards: the Chargers’ Justin Herbert in Week 13 (317 yards), Ravens journeyman Josh Johnson in Week 16 (304), and the Raiders’ Derek Carr in the wild-card round (310 yards).
The one commonality in those three contests? All were in Cincinnati. You have go back to Mike White (yes, Mike White) of the Jets (yes, the Jets) on Halloween for the last time the Bengals’ secondary got torched away from home.
Total Completions
The prop: 24.5
The odds: Over -110/Under -110
A year ago, Rams coach Sean McVay rescued Stafford from the purgatory that is the Detroit Lions for one reason: He believed Clayton Kershaw’s buddy offered him a better chance to win a championship than the guy (Jared Goff) who led L.A. to a Super Bowl two years prior (and performed poorly in it).
But it’s not like McVay’s new toy has turned into the second coming of Warren Moon in the run-and-shoot. To wit: Stafford’s 31-completion effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game matched his high for the entire season. And while Stafford has eclipsed 24 completions in half of his 20 games, look at his high-side totals: 25, 26, 26, 26, 26, 27, 28, 28, 31 and 31.
In other words, Stafford has beaten this prop number by more than two completions just five times. He also fell well short of this number (21 completions or fewer) on eight occasions.
Now, the Bengals did surrender the third-most completions in the NFL during the regular season; only the Buccaneers and Seahawks allowed more. Stafford’s completion numbers in four games (all victories) against Tampa Bay and Seattle this season: 27, 25, 21, 28.
This one smells like a complete tossup. Although it’s worth noting that there is a bit of a correlation between this prop and Stafford’s passing yards prop. Consider: In the 12 games in which he passed for more than 285 yards, Stafford completed 25-plus passes eight times. And in the eight games he fell short of 285 passing yards, he completed 25-plus passes just twice.
Longest Completion
The prop: 39.5
The odds: Over -110/Under -110
Take Stafford’s bazooka arm and match it with wideouts named Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. — not to mention a pre-injury Robert Woods — and it’s safe to assume huge chunk plays are a staple of the Rams’ offensive arsenal. And that assumption is correct — for the most part.
See, Stafford has completed a pass of 30-plus yards in 18 of 20 contests since moving west to L.A. He’s also got long passes of 70 and 41 yards in these playoffs. However, the pessimist would tell you that the Dallas native has connected on at least one pass of 40 or more yards only 13 times on the season.
In turn, the optimist would point out that he’s done it in seven of his last 10 games overall, including four of his last five at SoFi. That optimist also would note that Stafford — whose long pass two weeks ago against the 49ers was 29 yards — hasn’t missed topping this prop in consecutive home games all season.
Meanwhile, after limiting Carr to a long pass of 26 yards in their wild-card home win over Las Vegas, the Bengals surrendered completions of 40-plus yards in their last two outings (yes, that includes Ryan Tannehill).
Second-Quarter Touchdown Pass
The prop: Will Stafford throw a touchdown pass in the second quarter?
The odds: Yes -130/No +110
Interesting prop, given that some significant juice is attached to the Yes side, right? Well, Stafford connected with Kupp on second-quarter TD passes of 70 yards and 16 yards in his last two games, against Tampa Bay and San Francisco, respectively.
He also had two second-quarter touchdown passes (both to tight end Tyler Higbee) in the Week 17 regular-season finale against the 49ers, plus another one to Kupp in Week 16 at Baltimore. That gives Stafford at least one second-quarter TD strike in four of his last five games.
Now for the “but” … But in four games prior to the Ravens contest — against the Vikings, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Jaguars — Stafford didn’t throw a single touchdown in the second 15 minutes. Then again, that was preceded by a stretch in which he had at least one second-quarter TD in five of six games.
Add it all up, and Stafford has hit the Yes end of this particular Super Bowl prop in nine of his last 15 games overall … but only three of his 10 contests all season at SoFi.
On Sunday, Stafford will try to beat a Cincinnati defense that has surrendered a total of four second-quarter touchdowns in the postseason — three of which came via the air (one against the Raiders; two against the Chiefs).
Total Rushing Attempts
The prop: 2.5
The odds: Over -110/Under -110
Stafford isn’t as turtle-in-quicksand-slow as Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, or a Manning brother. But he’s not exactly fleet-of-foot, either (although upon learning he was leaving Detroit, he likely turned into Usain Bolt when he went looking for his suitcases).
Sure enough, after scampering five times (for minus-5 yards) in Week 1 against the Bears, Stafford eclipsed 2.5 rushing attempts only three times in the next 16 games.
However, since the playoffs arrived, Stafford — who turns 34 today — has had some serious pep in his step. He had six rushing attempts against the Cardinals (including a 1-yard TD run), four against the Buccaneers, and five against the 49ers. Those 15 carries are more than half his total from Weeks 2-17 (27).
So, do you have a theory as to why Stafford is suddenly impersonating Josh Allen on a regular basis?
Matter of fact, we do: Stafford has waited 13 years to get to this point. And he’s been around the block long enough to realize there’s no guarantee he’ll get another opportunity to win a championship. So he’s entered that, “Whatever the #$@! I have to do to keep this play/drive/season alive, I’m doing it” mode.
You can be sure that same mentality won’t change come Super Sunday. And while we’d never bet Yes on this prop if it was “2.5 designed rushes,” we’re confident there will be a handful of broken plays that require Stafford to tuck the pigskin and take off. Sure, he might not get very far. But as long as he crosses the line of scrimmage three times, that’d be enough to cash this ticket.
Coming later Monday: Top five Super Bowl props for Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow.
