Welcome to the NBA Betting Dime. If you missed the debut edition, it’s a weekly basketball column that combines some of the game’s best aspects. You can expect to find some analytical deep dives, social media clips, gambling information, and maybe some dumb pop culture references sprinkled in.
This week, we’re going to take a look at the struggling Celtics, Kevin Love’s Sixth Man of the Year case, and the improvement of Ja Morant.
However, let’s start by diving into one of the most underrated players in the league:
1. DDR FTW x2!
The King in the Fourth nickname was originally given to Isaiah Thomas, but I think it’s time to repurpose it. DeMar DeRozan has been absolutely dominant in the final frame this season. He’s averaged 8.0 of his 26.9 points in the fourth quarter, which trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo’s league-best mark of 8.1. DeRozan has also been extremely efficient in the fourth quarter, shooting 53.0% from the field and 53.8% from three-point range.
DeRozan took things to another level last week. The Bulls took on the Pacers on New Year’s Eve, and DeRozan drilled one of the most casual game-winners you’ll ever see:
🚨 BUTTER at the BUZZER 🚨
DeMar DeRozan knocks down the ONE-LEGGED triple as the @chicagobulls win on a #TissotBuzzerBeater! #ThisIsYourTime pic.twitter.com/rKdMtGpoM0
— NBA (@NBA) December 31, 2021
Look at that composure. DeRozan dribbled out virtually the entire clock before realizing, “you know what, I should probably shoot this thing, huh?” He then proceeded to launch a one-legged runner from about 26 feet that hit nothing but the bottom of the net.
But DeRozan was just getting started. The Bulls were back in action the following night, and they once again found themselves trailing with just 3.3 seconds left on the clock. Once again, DeRozan took care of business:
DEMAR DEROZAN AGAIN! BUZZER BEATER! pic.twitter.com/qhkUnZqss5
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) January 2, 2022
This game-winner was a bit more traditional, but it was equally impressive. He got just enough space after a beautiful pump fake and ultimately rattled home a 3-pointer. DeRozan isn’t known for his 3-point shooting, but he can clearly knock them down when he has to.
With his bucket vs. the Wizards, DeRozan became the first player in NBA history to record buzzer-beaters on back-to-back nights. The Bulls have also ripped off eight straight wins, bringing them to 25-10 for the year. That’s good enough for first place in the Eastern Conference, giving them a 2.0-game lead over the Nets and Bucks. It remains to be seen if they can hold that spot for the rest of the year, but I continue to see this team as undervalued in the betting market. You can still grab them to win the East at +1400 on BetMGM, and they’re +3000 to win the Finals on DraftKings Sportsbook.
2. Jaylen Nowell Brings The Thunder
COVID-19 has made this an interesting NBA season. Players who are normally afterthoughts have been thrust into starring roles, which has produced some unexpected highlights.
Enter Nowell. The third-year guard out of Washington has yet to make a real impact at the NBA level, but he was asked to play nearly 35 minutes vs. the Celtics last week. The Timberwolves were without Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, and Patrick Beverley, leaving the team without their top three guards. Not only did Nowell respond with a career-high 29 points in an upset victory, but he threw down the most emphatic dunk of the week:
PUT SOME RESPECT ON HIS NAME @JaylenNowell pic.twitter.com/WXUQvcfLHH
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) December 28, 2021
Ok, so this isn’t the best dunk that we’ve seen this year, but it was a relatively thin week. Still, it’s impressive any time you throw it down on someone’s head, even if that someone is Jabari Parker. Kudos to Nowell for taking advantage of the situation.
3. The Not So Fighting Irish
The Celtics were once the envy of every other team in the league. They took their aging core of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen and flipped it into an abundance of first-round picks. When the Nets imploded sooner than expected, those picks became extremely valuable. The Celtics landed an outstanding young duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, and those two players led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals in just their first season together. They followed that up with another trip to the conference finals two years later.
Since then, nothing has gone as expected. Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, and Gordon Hayward all left, and the team has done very little to replace their production. The team exited in the first round of the playoffs in 2020-21, and they’re currently just 17-18 this season. That puts them in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, and they own just a 1.0-game lead over the 11th place Knicks. This team was supposed to be fighting for the NBA title at this point, not a spot in the play-in tournament.
So what the heck happened? For starters, losing Irving to free agency can’t be understated. Celtics’ fans may absolutely hate the guy, but there’s no denying that he’s an amazing basketball player. He’s one of the most gifted scorers in the league, and the team has been unable to replace his production.
Tatum and Brown have done a great job this season – they own a Net Rating of +3.9 when sharing the court – but the rest of the roster has been a bit of a disaster. Specifically, the three-man combination of Payton Pritchard, Aaron Nesmith, and Romeo Langford has torpedoed the Celtics. All three players own a Net Rating differential of -6.4 or worse per Cleaning the Glass, meaning the Celtics’ Net Rating decreases by at least 6.4 points when one of those players is on the floor. That puts each of them in the 23rd percentile or worse among qualified players. The Celtics don’t have enough depth to avoid all three players, who have combined for 1,190 minutes this season.
Given their struggles, there has been some talk about the Celtics breaking up the Brown-Tatum combination. That would be a huge mistake. The numbers suggest that these players have no issues playing together, and they remain arguably the best young duo in the league. Instead, the front office needs to upgrade some of the surrounding pieces. Unfortunately, that’s going to be easier said than done. The team has plenty of expiring contracts, so they could easily absorb a big contract in the trade market, but the days of the Celtics having oodles of draft picks is over. They have no extra first-rounders at this point, so they would have to be able to swing a trade using a combination of their own picks and players. Outside of Brown and Tatum, I’m not sure what the Celtics can offer that is very appealing.
4. Team Of The Week – Washington Wizards
The Wizards have been one of the biggest surprises this season. They’re currently 19-18, which puts them in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. That puts them ahead of the Celtics, Raptors, Knicks, and Hawks, all of which had aspirations of contending this season.
They’re just 18-18-1 against the spread this season, but they have ripped off four straight covers. That’s good for the longest current streak in the NBA.
One reason for their resurgence has been the return of Bradley Beal. He missed some time due to health and safety protocols, but he returned to the lineup three games ago. He’s turned in arguably his best stretch of basketball this season during those contests, averaging 30.3 points, 11.7 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game. He even had a game with 17 dimes, which was a new career-high.
The caveat is that Spencer Dinwiddie has missed each of those three contests. When he returns to the lineup, the Wizards need to keep Beal involved as a facilitator. The offense has been humming with Beal serving as the de facto point guard, so moving him back to an off-ball role just doesn’t seem like a smart decision.
5. Houston, We Have A Problem
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the surging Rockets. They put together a seven-game win streak, which just so happened to coincide with some of their young “stars” being out of the lineup.
Since they’ve returned, the Rockets have gone right back to being a disaster. They’ve managed a 3-28 record outside of that seven-game win streak, and they’ve failed to cover in eight straight games.
Unfortunately, their poor production on the court has started to boil over into the locker room. Christian Wood was benched for the start of their game vs. the Nuggets on New Year’s day, and he ultimately finished with eight scoreless minutes in the first half. He didn’t see the floor at all in the second half after reportedly refusing to go into the game.
However, at least he stayed in the building. The same cannot be said of Kevin Porter Jr., who reportedly exited after a halftime altercation with assistant coach John Lucas.
The only reason Porter is in Houston and not Cleveland is because of his temper. He reportedly got into a screaming match with Cavaliers’ officials after they moved his locker, which led to the team deciding to cut bait with him. Porter is clearly a talented player – he’s averaged 12.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.7 assists this season – but it’s fair to wonder if he’s wearing out his welcome with another team.
Wood and Porter were both suspended for the Rockets’ game vs. the 76ers on Monday, which they ultimately lost by 20 points. Rookie Jalen Green struggled to get things going once again, and he’s now shooting just 39.5% from the field and 32.7% from 3-point range in his debut season. There’s still plenty of time for Green to turn things around, but the Rockets’ Net Rating has decreased by 18.9 points with Green on the floor this season.
Ultimately, any goodwill that this team built with their seven-game win streak is all but gone. Things are looking extremely bleak, so this team will likely be looking for a new savior in the 2022 NBA Draft.
6. DFS Star Of The Night – Trae Young
There were some big games on Monday – Luka Doncic, Kyle Kuzma, and Joel Embiid all scored at least 62.0 DraftKings points – but no one could compete with Young. “Ice Trae” lived up to his nickname, dropping 56 points with four rebounds, 14 assists, and seven 3-pointers. He became just the sixth player in NBA history to score at least 55 points with 10 assists, joining Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. Young also was the first player in league history to get to 56 points and 14 rebounds, so it was an unprecedented performance.
Overall, Young racked up 85.0 DraftKings points, which was one of the best marks of the entire season. Only two other players have cracked 80 DraftKings points this season: Steph Curry on November 8 and Luka Doncic on November 12.
Unfortunately, the Hawks were unable to secure the win despite Trae’s huge night. The Blazers got big performances of their own from Anfernee Simons (60.75 DraftKings points), Norman Powell (47.5 DraftKings points), and Nassir Little (39.75 DraftKings points), which propelled them to a 136-131 victory.
7. More Morant
A few weeks back, I pondered the question “is Ja Morant overrated?” There was some strong statistical evidence that he was, and I thought I laid out an excellent case.
Since then, this guy has made me look incredibly foolish.
His past four games have been particularly impressive. He led the Grizzlies to a 4-0 record – including road wins over the Suns and Nets – and was rewarded with the Western Conference Player of the Week. He averaged 35.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in those contests while shooting a blistering 57.6% from the field and 73.7% from three-point range.
That 3-point shooting is obviously unsustainable, but more efficient shooting has always been the key to unlocking Morant’s full potential. He has all the ability in the world, but he shot just 33.5% and 30.3% from three-point range in his first two seasons. That made him more of a volume scorer than an efficient one, which capped his upside.
He’s up to 40.4% from three-point range and 49.2% from the field this season, both of which are easily new career highs. If he can continue to be that proficient, the sky is the limit.
Ultimately, I’m willing to admit I was wrong about Morant. He’s still just 22 years old, and I’m happy to see that he’s taken his game to another level. If he can continue to improve, the rest of the league better watch out.
8. All You Need Is Love
The Cavaliers have gotten plenty of love in this article this season, but Kevin Love hasn’t gotten nearly the credit he deserves. He entered the year as an afterthought in the Cavs’ rotation, and most people wondered why they didn’t just buy him out. After all, the team wasn’t expected to contend this year, and they already had their frontcourt of the future locked up with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Not only has Love had a bounce-back season for the Cavaliers, but he’s been one of their most important players. He ranks third on the team in Net Rating differential, and he’s been an absolute menace offensively. He’s averaging 14.6 points per game in just 21.4 minutes, and he’s shooting a career-best 43.3% from three-point range.
The Cavs have unsurprisingly been cautious with Love’s minutes – he has a massive injury track record – but they are starting to lean on him a bit more. He’s averaged 30.1 minutes over his past four games, and he’s responded with an average of 25.8 points. 8.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. He’s also continued to shoot the ball efficiently despite the spike in playing time, knocking down 50% of his shots from the field and from three-point range.
With that in mind, it might be time to get some exposure to Love in the betting market. He’s currently listed at +5000 to win Six Man of the Year at SugarHouse, and those odds are pretty tasty. If he can continue to produce at the same rate with some additional playing time moving forward, he’s going to garner heavy consideration at the end of the year.
9. The Knicks’ Bench Mob
Things have not gone as expected for the Knicks this season. They were hoping to build off last year’s fourth-place finish in the Eastern Conference, and they made a splash move by bringing in Kemba Walker.
The Knicks are currently fighting for their playoff lives, but they gave us one of the most interesting box scores I can ever remember last week vs. the Pistons:
Hang that sucker in the Louvre. I honestly don’t know where to start. Every member of the starting unit had a +/- of -17 or worse. Every member of the bench had a +/- of +27 or better. Miles McBride was +39 over 24.6 minutes despite not scoring a single point!
Since then, the Knicks have dropped two straight games – one of which was to the lowly Thunder – so the good times didn’t last long. Still, no matter what happens the rest of the way, we’ll always have this box score.
10. Darth Myles
We’ve seen some interesting pre-game outfits in recent years, but I’m not sure anyone is topping Myles Turner:
Myles Turner pulled up as Darth Vader 😂 pic.twitter.com/CDEFZM6fv1
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 30, 2021
I have so many questions. How hard is it for a seven-footer to find Darth Vader gear? Is the cheap lightsaber really necessary? Who the heck did he get to be the Stormtroopers?
The bar on pre-game outfits has been raised. The only thing that’s beating this is if someone shows up to play the Pacers dressed like C-3PO.
