College Basketball Betting: No. 11 Auburn A Solid Home Favorite Over No. 16 LSU

Auburn Tigers forward Jabari Smith (10) reacts during the second half against the Syracuse Orange in the 2021 Battle 4 Atlantis at Imperial Arena.
Image Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Bad news for sports bettors: College football’s regular season has come to a close.

Good news for sports bettors: College basketball’s regular season is heating up fast, with many of the power conferences getting a jump-start on league action in December.

Wednesday’s marquee matchup is a high-profile SEC clash between two Elite Eight contenders — a pair of schools perhaps better known for dominating the world of college football.

No. 16 LSU at No. 11 Auburn

LSU Tigers forward Darius Days prepares to shoot a free throw against the Ohio Bobcats
Image Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Tipoff Time: 7 p.m. EST
Venue: Auburn Arena (Auburn, AL)
TV: ESPN2
LSU: 12-0 SU/10-2 ATS
Auburn: 11-1 SU/8-4 ATS

Odds: Side & Total

Sportsbook Spread Total
BetMGM Auburn -4.5 (-110) 143.5
Caesars Auburn -5 (-110) 143
DraftKings Auburn -5 (+100) 143
FanDuel Auburn -4.5 (-110) 143
PointsBet USA Auburn -4.5 (-110) 143

*Odds updated as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 29.

Betting Trends

LSU

  • LSU is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 overall and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road (2-1 ATS in road/neutral-site games this year)
  • The Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win
  • The Under is 9-1 in LSU’s last 10 overall and 8-0 in its last eight following a spread-cover
  • LSU has topped the total in 37 of its last 52 road games and 47 of its last 67 as an underdog. The over is also 16-4-1 in the Tigers’ last 21 Wednesday tilts

Auburn

  • Auburn is on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 9-3-1 as a favorite and 12-3-1 as a home chalk
  • The Under is 9-1 in the Tigers’ last 10 home games
  • The Over is 14-3 in Auburn’s last 17 games against winning teams

The Series

  • The favorite has cashed in four of the last five meetings
  • The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 regular-season matchups

Odds & Ends

LSU Tigers forward Alex Fudge dunks the ball in a game against the Lipscomb Bisons
Image Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

— LSU, which has yet to encounter a Top 25 team this season, had a 2-7 SU record against nationally-ranked foes last season. The two victories: 78-65 vs. No. 16 Tennessee in February and 78-71 over No. Arkansas in the SEC tournament semifinals.

— Auburn is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS against power-conference opponents this season, all at neutral sites. The Tigers thumped Nebraska 99-68 as a 14.5-point favorite on Dec. 11; crushed Syracuse 89-68 as a 5.5-point chalk on Nov. 26; and lost to Connecticut 115-109 in double overtime as a 2.5-point underdog on Nov. 24.

— LSU is 3-6 SU versus ranked teams on the road since the 2017-18 campaign. Of the combined totals from those nine contests — 158, 138, 181, 144, 152, 158, 145, 165, and 137 — seven went above tonight’s consensus tally of 143 points.

— Dating back to the 2016-17 season, Auburn is 5-2 SU at home against ranked opponents. The combined totals: 170, 181, 164, 162, 174, 165, and 209 points. The Tigers scored at least 82 points in all seven games.

— LSU has posted double-digit victories in 10 of its 12 games. The exceptions were a 68-63 overtime triumph over Penn State as an 8.5-point neutral-site favorite (Nov. 26 in Destin, Fla.), and a 66-57 win over Louisiana Tech as an 11-point home favorite (Dec. 18).

— Six of Auburn’s last seven wins also have been double-digit routs. The average victory margin during this period was 19.1 points, with the Tigers posting four 20-plus-point wins.

— This season, LSU and its opponents are averaging 133.6 combined points per game, while Auburn and its competition are averaging 145.2 points per outing.

— At DraftKings, Auburn currently has the 16th-best odds to win the NCAA title (+4,000). LSU slots 20th on the national championship odds board (+4,500), tied with Texas Tech and Arkansas.

— Player to Watch: Auburn freshman Jabari Smith has drawn comparisons to a young Kevin Durant. As such, he’s on the shortlist of candidates for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NBA draft.

The 6-foot-10 Smith leads the Tigers in scoring (16.2 ppg), ranks second in rebounding (7.2 per game), and third in assists (2.3 per game). He’s also shooting 45.2 percent from three-point range — which is actually a notch higher than his overall field-goal proficiency (44.8 percent). Smith, whose campaign for SEC Player Of The Year ostensibly begins tonight, has two double-doubles in his last three games (against Murray State and North Alabama).

Jay Clemons
Jay Clemons remains the only sports writer on the planet to capture Cynposis Media's national award for Sports Blog Of The Year (beating out NBA.com, MLB.com, PGATour.com, The Players' Tribune in 2015), along with the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's pre-eminent award for Best Football Writer (2008). Through the years, Mr. Clemons has been a key figure with numerous blue-chip sports/media brands, namely the Detroit Lions, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, Bleacher Report and now American Affiliate's Props.com. Clemons, a graduate of Michigan State University and Wayne State University, has been an on-camera Web-TV host for Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report and FOX Sports. In 2015, he also became the first-ever sports journalism professor at Kennesaw State University in suburban Atlanta. And for the betting community, covering the last two years of the sports calendar (2019-20 / 2020-21), Clemons enjoyed a rock-solid winning rate of 59.6 percent with point-spread and over/under selections (NFL, college football and college basketball.)

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