Here we go with our NCAA Tournament predictions and best bets ahead of the first round — which starts on Thursday, March 16. Three of our Props.com analysts were asked to look into their crystal ball — actually, one of them used a magic eight ball — to make their top proclamations for the Big Dance. The results varied from Sweet 16 picks, Cinderella stories, and Final Four madness.
Before we dive into the predictions, don’t forget to check out our Best College Basketball Player Props article, which will be updated every day of the NCAA Tournament.
NCAA Tournament Predictions & Best Bets
These NCAA Tournament predictions were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday, March 14. New to FanDuel? Grab their exclusive offer for the NCAA Tournament “Bet $20 to Get $200 in bonus bets” in the banner below.
San Diego State to Reach the Sweet 16 (+154)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: San Diego State to reach the Sweet 16 | +154 at Fanduel Sportsbook
This is an odd number for San Diego State here. I understand winning two games isn’t an easy feat, but they should be favored in both contests.
First, we already know that San Diego State is a -5.5 point favorite over Charleston. This is an awful matchup for the Cougars, though. Charleston scores nearly 40% of their points from beyond the arc, which is one of the highest rates in the nation. They aren’t an efficient team from deep, though.
San Diego State boasts a top-10 defense against three-pointers. They allow their opponents to shoot them, but they’re also elite at defending them.
Ultimately, I feel comfortable with a relatively easy win over San Diego State. Oddly enough, it feels like this line would be a bit higher if this weren’t a 12/5 matchup that people love to use for upsets.
If the Aztecs win, they’ll ideally play Furman to get into the Sweet 16. I do believe Furman is live against Virginia, but I expect the Cavaliers to be the actual Round of 32 matchup.
Once again, I believe San Diego State will be favored here. The Mountain West Conference ranks one spot above the ACC in KenPom’s rankings. San Diego State also ranks 20 slots higher than Virginia with a harder schedule.
I do hate the idea that you need to hit threes against Virginia to win, and it isn’t an ideal matchup for the Aztecs. That said, I’ll go with the better team when I’m getting these odds.
Connecticut: West Region Winner (+500)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Connecticut: West Region Winner | +500 at Fanduel Sportsbook
Quite a bit goes into this play, but I just don’t believe these odds are indicative of the talent here. UConn is going to have an absurdly difficult path to the Final Four. The right side of the bracket is ridiculous, and this may be the most difficult path for virtually any team.
I’m going to skip over Iona because I feel comfortable that UConn will handle them with ease. Their remaining path will likely feature three of these four teams – Kansas, Saint Mary’s, UCLA, or Gonzaga.
So why are we siding with the Huskies here? The odds. UConn certainly hasn’t had the hardest schedule in the NCAA, but they rank fourth in KenPom’s efficiency rankings.
The Huskies have one of the best big men in the NCAA in Adama Sanogo. Freshman Donovan Clingan may be better than him, though, so we’re not going to see any issues if one of these two gets into foul trouble.
I wouldn’t say I love the ball-handers on this team, which is their only downfall. That said, they have several players that are at least acceptable, and they can space the floor extremely well.
We’re getting value here, even though I believe Saint Mary’s is a team that is under-seeded. Gonzaga’s had defensive struggles that could result in a less-than-stellar tournament. UCLA will be without one of their star players. Kansas is elite, and I believe they’re deserving of the number one overall seed, but they also aren’t unbeatable.
The other aspect here is that there are several teams – Arkansas, Illinois, VCU, TCU, Northwestern – that could pull off some type of upset to make UConn’s road to the Final Four a bit easier.
This number is also large enough that you could begin to hedge after a couple of wins.
Texas to Make Final Four (+400)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Texas To Make Final Four | +400 at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Longhorns were able to move forward after the Chris Beard situation and remain a top-ten team throughout the season. The final week of the season might have proved they are as they beat the defending champion Kansas in the season finale and Big 12 Championship.
A great two-way team, they finished in the top 20 in both adjusted offense and defense according to KenPom. They certainly did not have an easy schedule playing in the Big 12, but they proved themself throughout the season with the second-most Quad 1 victories with 14.
Memphis to Make the Sweet 16 (+360)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Memphis to make the Sweet 16 | +360 at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Tigers at No. 8 are highly under-seeded. They finished top 35 in adjusted offense and defense according to KenPom. They have some notable wins on their record including neutral site wins over Auburn and Houston, a road win against Cincinnati, and they battled Alabama in Tuscaloosa in a three point loss.
Memphis is one of the rare experienced teams in the country who put out an all-senior starting lineup. That experience is something you can’t teach and it should help them in this situation.
Kansas State to Make the Sweet 16 (+152)
Analyst: Spencer Limbach
Where to bet: Kansas State to make the Sweet 16 | +152 at FanDuel Sportsbook
This bet found me. I didn’t start my research looking to place a wager on Kansas State, but here we are. In fact, I’ve been skeptical of the Wildcats throughout the season. They seem overrated.
Whether it’s right or not, the Wildcats have the No. 3 seed in the East Region. They are favored by 10 points in the first round against No. 14 Montana State. That’s a really good draw for KSU.
From there, Kansas State will take on the winner of Kentucky and Providence. KSU should check in as a slight favorite no matter the opponent, and you could potentially hedge your bet to lock in a profit if this situation arises. Either way, neither of those matchups are terrible for Kansas State. Kentucky and Providence have both been all over the place this season, and KSU is a battle-tested team with a strong defense and a skilled group of bucket-getters like Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson.
Duke to Make the Sweet 16 (+140)
Analyst: Spencer Limbach
Where to bet: Duke to make the Sweet 16 | +140 at FanDuel Sportsbook
This is another price-driven bet, as the +140 odds on Duke to make the Sweet 16 feel generous. The Blue Devils’ first round matchup against Oral Roberts is hardly a cakewalk, but it could be worse as far as a No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup goes. After all, Duke is favored by 7 points.
The Blue Devils have picked up steam over the second half of the season, culminating in an ACC Tournament Championship in style. Duke has been a solid defensive team for most of the year. Now, Kyle Filipowski is rounding into form and Jeremy Roach is heating up.
A potential second-round meeting with Tennessee isn’t as daunting when considering the Volunteers are without guard Zakai Zeigler. The Vols lost two of three games without him.
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