The Raiders are favored on the road against the Rams. However, that’s not necessarily a reason to fade their passing overs. Instead, a few passing game props are exciting against LA’s lousy pass defense. Let’s dive into my three favorite Rams vs. Raiders player props for Thursday Night Football Week 14.
Rams vs. Raiders Player Props: TNF Week 14
For a full list of Rams vs. Raiders player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Derek Carr Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Derek Carr had a rocky start to the season. However, he’s been in excellent form lately. Since Week 9, Carr has passed for 259, 248, 307, 295, and 250 yards. So, he’s averaged 271.8 passing yards, had a median of 259 passing yards, and bested 248.5 passing yards four times in his last five games.
According to numberFire, the Raiders have passed 117 times and attempted a rush with a non-quarterback 90 times in neutral game scripts since Week 10. So, the passing rate was encouraging for Carr’s yardage output.
The matchup is good, too. Per Football Outsiders, the Rams have been 24th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 10. During that time frame, teams attempted 125 passes and only 55 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts against the Rams.
The Raiders might be further incentivized to attack the Rams through the air. Stud running back Josh Jacobs has been force-fed the ball in the past two weeks, despite dealing with a calf injury. Perhaps, they won’t run him into the ground in a short week, especially if he’s not as effective with less time to receive treatment and heal between contests. But, even if the Raiders continue to feed Jacobs his standard workload, Carr can exceed 248.5 passing yards. So, I’m happy to take his passing prop.
Where to bet: Derek Carr Over 248.5 Passing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Davante Adams Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Davante Adams is the alpha in the Raiders’ passing attack. Further, he’s white-hot. In his last five games, Adams had 146, 126, 141, 74, and 177 receiving yards, good for an average of 132.8 receiving yards per game and a median outcome of 141 receiving yards.
But, of course, Adams has also balled out all year. He had at least 95 receiving yards in four of his first seven games on the Raiders. Adams should feast again this week.
Top wideouts have barbecued the Rams. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have averaged the most receiving yards per game (90.6) against the Rams. Thus, this is another eruption spot for Adams, and betting on his over for 88.5 receiving yards is alluring.
Where to bet: Davante Adams Over 88.5 Receiving Yards | -113 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Davante Adams Over 6.5 Receptions (-155)
Adams is going to eat. So, let’s double up on his props. Adams has piled up yardage and receptions this year. He’s averaged 6.6 receptions per game and reeled in receptions at an eye-popping rate lately.
Adams had 10, 9, 7, 7, and 8 receptions since Week 9. Further, he’s had more than 6.5 receptions in six of his last seven games and eight times in 2022. Carr has force-fed Adams targets. Since Week 9, Adams had a staggering 37.9% Target Share.
He’s also been extremely impressive on a per-route basis. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Adams has been targeted on 33.5% of his routes in his last five games. And, again, the matchup is good. Teams have averaged 8.8 pass attempts to their No. 1 wide receiver when facing the Rams, and Adams is an elite No. 1 who should exceed that mark. Therefore, I’m all over Adams’ over for receptions, even at a slightly chalky -155 at BetMGM. If their line moves to 7.5 receptions like it is at many other sportsbooks, I suggest treading carefully and only taking it at a plus line.
Where to bet: Davante Adams Over 6.5 Receptions | -155 at BetMGM Sportsbook
