The Chargers and Dolphins wrap up Sunday with what projects to be a shootout. The offenses in this AFC battle are markedly better than the defenses. As a result, a pair of overs are enticing. However, not everyone can get in on the action. So, a cardio king’s under is also alluring. Let’s dive into the Chargers vs. Dolphins player props below.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Player Props: SNF Week 14
For a full list of Chargers vs. Dolphins player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Austin Ekeler Over 5.5 Receptions (-140)
The Chargers will get Mike Williams back for this game, creating more target competition for all parties in Los Angeles’s offense. Regardless, Austin Ekeler is a target hog. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Ekeler has been targeted on an eye-popping 30.4% of his routes this year. He’s also been a safety valve, sporting a -0.7-yard average depth of target.
Additionally, the offense is speedy and pass-happy. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers are first in situation-neutral pace. The Dolphins are in the middle of the pack, ranking 16th. So, the pace should be uptempo. And, per numberFire, the Chargers have attempted 174 passes and 74 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their previous five games.
The club’s offensive tendencies and Ekeler’s elite usage has resulted in 7.1 receptions per game. The pass-catching back has had more than 5.5 receptions eight times this year, and his median outcome is 7.0 receptions. The matchup is stellar for Ekeler’s odds of besting 5.5 receptions this week, too.
The Dolphins are more beatable through the air than on the ground. Per Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are ninth in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 23rd in pass defense DVOA. Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, running backs have averaged 5.3 receptions per game against Miami. Ekeler’s an elite pass-catching option and should be heavily involved in a probable shootout. So, I’m taking his over for 5.5 receptions.
Where to bet: Austin Ekeler Over 5.5 Receptions | -140 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Raheem Mostert Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-103)
The Chargers are a tire fire when defending the run. Los Angeles is 30th in rush defense DVOA. In addition, running backs have averaged 134.9 rushing yards per game and torched the Chargers for 5.60 yards per carry.
Understandably, teams have rushed early and often against Los Angeles’s comically bad run defense. LA’s opponents have attempted 129 passes and 129 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their last five games.
Miami’s rushing attack can benefit from above-average run blocking in this dreamy draw. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are 13th in Adjusted Line Yards (4.48).
The mystery is how Miami will distribute touches between Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. In neutral game scripts since Wilson joined the Dolphins, Mostert has attempted 21 rushes, and Wilson has handled 20 carries. Moreover, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Mostert had a 61% snap share last week, and Wilson’s was only 37%.
Mostert has rushed for 64, 26, 65, and 30 yards since the arrival of Wilson. Mostert’s two efforts besting 60 rushing yards were victories by the Dolphins. Miami is favored this week. The arrow is pointed up for Mostert this week in a plus matchup, and he can rush for more than 47.5 yards even if he splits work with Wilson. Finally, the Dolphins might be inclined to lean more heavily on their running attack this week to protect Tua Tagovailoa from taking unnecessary hits behind a banged-up offensive line.
Where to bet: Raheem Mostert Over 47.5 Rushing Yards | -103 at Caesars Sportsbook
Mike Gesicki Under 1.5 Receptions (+125)
If the Dolphins hammer the ball down LA’s throat, the pie will shrink for Miami’s pass-catchers. Even when Miami’s taken to the air regularly, Mike Gesicki has been an afterthought.
According to PFF, Gesicki has run 100 routes in Miami’s last five games, the fourth-most routes on the team. However, he’s earned only 11 targets. Gesicki turned his tiny target total into only six receptions.
Whether by design or by Tua’s preference, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been force-fed the majority of targets. Additionally, Trent Sherfield has received more attention than Gesicki.
Gesicki’s minor role in the offense has resulted in only 2.0 receptions per game. Yet, he’s had fewer than 1.5 receptions in three of his last four games and six games in 2022. Gesicki is already struggling to garner looks. And, again, the Dolphins will likely run more in this game than usual. So, I’m taking the under on 1.5 receptions for Gesicki at a tasty +125.
Where to bet: Mike Gesicki Under 1.5 Receptions | +125 at BetMGM Sportsbook