One of the best parts of the tennis calendar is upon us. The 2025 Indian Wells Open – otherwise known as “the fifth grand slam” – begins on Wednesday, March 5 and runs for the following 10 days.
Carlos Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion at Indian Wells and the tournament favorite at +200, but he’s got a pretty tough draw with the in-form Denis Shapovalov as a potential opponent in the Round of 32 and Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals.
Speaking of Djokovic, it’s anybody’s guess how he goes in California. The Serb started 2025 with a shocking exit against Reilly Opelka in Brisbane, then made a run to the semifinals at the Australian Open, withdrew with an injury, and then got upset by Matteo Berrettini in his first match back.
Djokovic is a five-time champion at Indian Wells, but his last title came in 2016.
Djokovic is also the second-favorite (+650) despite all the uncertainty.
Adding to the chaos is the fact that No. 1 seed and third-favorite Alexander Zverev (+700) has come off the boil after a hot start to the season. Zverev was runner-up to Jannik Sinner (who is serving a suspension and not eligible to play at Indian Wells) at the Australian Open, but he’s gone 4-3 since then and has lost to Francisco Cerundolo, Francisco Comesana, and Learner Tien in that span.
And the fourth-favorite for Indian Wells, Daniil Medvedev, has been erratic out of the gates in 2025.
2025 Indian Wells Best Bets & Futures
This tournament is wide open. Let’s dive in to the top picks.
Editor’s Note: Make sure to check out our other tennis player props and picks throughout the season!
Tomas Machac (+5000)
There is some concern that Tomas Machac could be gassed after winning the title in Acapulco last weekend, but the glass-half-full approach is that he’s just in great form.
Machac was imperious in Mexico, dropping just two sets in five matches and handling Alejandro Davidovich Fokina without any fuss in the final.
Machac’s still flying a bit under the radar on the ATP, but Tennis Abstract has him pegged as the eighth-best player per their Elo Model and his draw here isn’t that daunting. He gets a bye into the Round of 64 and should be a considerable favorite over the big-serving Alexander Bublik to get into the Round of 32.
A potential showdown with Zverev looms, but Machac has shown that he has the game to play up against the best players on tour and it would not be surprising if this is the Czech’s coming out party.
Jiri Lehecka (+7000)
On paper it looks like Jiri Lehecka has a really tough draw, but the heavyweights in his section – Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev – look vulnerable at the moment.
Jiri Lehecka has lost his last two matches, but he was in roaring form before those defeats with wins over Alcaraz, Grigor Dimitrov, and a run to the Round of 16 at the Australian Open already behind him in 2025.
Lehecka has already proven this year that he can beat the best on tour and there’s nothing about his draw that worries me, especially at this price.
Lorenzo Musetti (+15000)
From 2004 to 2016, Indian Wells was basically Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic alternating titles. But since then, we’ve seen a handful of players have their breakthrough moment in this tournament. Taylor Fritz, Cam Norrie, and Dominic Thiem all won titles here in the last five iterations and Nikoloz Basilashvili was a shocking finalist in 2021.
Lorenzo Musetti, like Machac and Lehecka, fits the bill of a player who has the game to win a Masters Title, but is still just searching for his moment.
The Italian has made a semifinal at Wimbledon, won the Bronze Medal, and has two ATP 500 titles. He can win in a field like this.
The concerns are certainly legitimate. Musetti struggled in the Australian Open and was forced to withdraw from Buenos Aires with a calf injury, but if that issue is behind him, he should be fresh for Indian Wells.
A lack of form and the injury issues have caused Musetti’s number to balloon to +15000, which is a terrific buying opportunity considering his ceiling and his draw.
Musetti’s likely path to the quarterfinals is Reilly Opelka, Arthur Fils, and Casper Ruud, which isn’t a daunting path.
