Thursday Night Football Props – Week 6 NFL Picks

Sep 30, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs the ball against the Detroit Lions in the fourth quarter at Ford Field.
Image Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Looking for all the best Thursday Night Football player props? You have come to the right place. Every week, we ask our analysts to sift through all the best daily fantasy sports sites to find you their best TNF player props for every week of the NFL season.

Make sure to check back weekly as this page will be updated a few days prior to each week’s matchup so you can get your bets in early to grab the most value.

So let’s dive into our two best plays for this week’s matchup between the 49ers and Seahawks.

Thursday Night Football Props: Week 6 NFL Picks

Josh Shepardson breaks down his top TNF picks for this week.

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Jordan Mason Higher Than 83.5 Rushing Yards 

Jordan Mason has been a workhorse in Christian McCaffrey’s stead. Mason has handled 105 of San Francisco’s non-quarterback rush 132 attempts (79.5%). The bruising runner has rewarded Kyle Shanahan’s faith in him with 107.2 rushing yards per game, with a median of 100. He’s cleared 83.5 rushing yards four times in five contests.

Mason also has excellent underlying data. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 59 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts this year, Mason is 10th in explosive run percentage (7.6%), 16th in explosive yards percentage (34.1%), tied for 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21), and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.01). He’s a hard-charging runner capable of ripping off chunk plays and falling forward after contact.

Mason should also have a favorable game script in a good matchup. The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites on Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have struggled mightily against the run. According to Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks have coughed up the ninth-most rushing yards per game (110.6) at 4.69 yards per carry to running backs.

They’ve also been below average in yards before contact per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Per Fantasy Points, Seattle has allowed the 10th-most yards before contact per attempt (1.89) and the 12th-most yards after contact per attempt (2.41) this season. Therefore, Mason should take advantage of the matchup and eclipse 83.5 rushing yards for the fifth time in six games. 

Where to play: Jordan Mason Higher Than 83.5 Rushing Yards | Underdog

Kenneth Walker Higher Than 18.5 Receiving Yards

The 2024 Seahawks aren’t Pete Carroll’s team anymore. Mike MacDonald has allowed offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to do his thing, which is airing the ball out. According to the nfelo app, Seattle has the highest pass rate over expected (7.7% PROE) this season. 

The Seahawks are also playing fast. Per RotoViz’s pace app, Seattle is taking the third-fewest seconds per snap and using no-huddle at the third-highest percentage (24%) this year. Meanwhile, the 49ers have faced a 55% situation-neutral pass rate. 

A pass-heavy game script last season would have been suboptimal for Kenneth Walker’s outlook. However, a new coaching staff has used Walker as a genuine featured running back, including keeping him on the field for passing work.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in Walker’s three games this season, he’s run 75 routes versus 43 for Zach Charbonnet. So, make no mistake, Walker stays on the field for passing work. Additionally, he hasn’t given the team a reason to remove that role from Walker’s plate.

Walker has secured 13 of his 16 targets for 99 receiving yards. Walker had two receptions for six receiving yards in Week 1 but has excelled in two subsequent games since returning from an oblique injury. In Week 4, Walker had four receptions for 36 receiving yards and seven for 57 in Week 5. 

The third-year pro should maintain his pass-catching momentum on Thursday night in a plus matchup. According to Pro Football Reference, the 49ers have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game (42.2) to running backs this season. Finally, per Fantasy Points, San Francisco has tied for the sixth-highest target share (18.5%) allowed to running backs this year. 

Where to play: Kenneth Walker Higher Than 18.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog

More NFL Week 6 Props

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Where To Place NFL Prop Bets

The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your NFL player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NFL player props.

You can’t go wrong with DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if DraftKings and FanDuel are legal in your state:

NFL Fantasy Player Props

We love the NFL player props available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper Fantasy. These fantasy player props aren’t technically sports betting picks, but they offer a very similar experience to prop-betting parlays.

You’ll often find the juiciest lines and payouts odds for NFL props available at legal DFS sites. These apps are available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.

More Sports Betting Resources

Check out the Props.com NFL Betting Guide and Guide To Prop Betting for more on how to bet NFL props.

For more on the available sports betting bonuses in your state, take a look at some of these Props.com resources:

Top Online Sportsbook And Daily Fantasy Promos By State

PrizePicks and other DFS apps offer fantasy prop contests that are very similar to prop betting. Check out our Apps Like PrizePicks guide, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).

Wondering if the PrizePicks daily fantasy app is legal in California? Check out the Is PrizePicks Legal in California? Guide.