Thunder vs. Mavericks Player Props & Predictions – Game 2

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) dribbles the ball down the court during the second half against the San Antonio Spurs at Paycom Center.
Image Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

The Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will matchup on Thursday, May 9. Tip-off for the game is 9:30 ET and will be shown on ESPN. Oklahoma City is favored by 5 points in this game, and the total is 218. Who do we think will come out on top? Keep reading for our top Thunder vs. Mavericks player props predictions.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds

  • Spread: Thunder -5
  • Total 218

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Game Info

  • Date: Thursday, May 9
  • Time: 9:30 ET
  • Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City OK
  • TV: ESPN

Mavericks Betting Trends

  • Over their last five games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Across their last three road contests, Dallas has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 104 points per game.
  • In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 1-2.

Thunder Betting Trends

  • In their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.
  • Oklahoma City has played well in their previous three home games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 108 points per game while allowing 97. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
  • As the betting favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder in their most recent game against the Mavericks, finishing with 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists. Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder easily covered the spread in this game, as they were favored by 4.5 points and won by a score of 117-95. The Thunder really pulled away in the 4th quarter, outscoring the Mavericks 28-16.

Oklahoma City’s defense was excellent in this game, as they held the Mavericks to just 39.3% shooting from the field. The Thunder also knocked down 16 threes, which was above their season average. Going into the game, the over/under line was set at 218.5 points, and the teams fell 6.5 points short of that mark.

Can the Dallas Offense Score Enough on the Road?

Dallas is 52-37 against the spread this season, including a 29-16 mark on the road. As the underdog, they are 16-17 ATS on the road and 13-20 overall.

For the season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 40-49, with an average of 231.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 218, and 6 of their games have had lower lines than that.

In their most recent game against the Thunder, the Mavericks lost 117-95. They were 4.5-point underdogs in that game, and the O/U line was 218.5.

Dallas is 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 compared to 19-11 in non-conference games.

As the underdog, the Mavericks are 13-20 this season. They have been the underdog in 33 of their 82 games, and they are 16-17 ATS as the underdog on the road.

The Mavericks have an average scoring differential of +0.7 points per game on the road this season. Their overall ATS record on the road is 29-16.

Currently, the Mavericks are 1st in the Southwest Division. In their last game, they lost to the Thunder by a score of 117-95.

The Mavericks come into tonight’s game as the NBA’s 8th ranked scoring offense, averaging 117.9 points per game. Looking at their pace, they are 14th in the league, with 99.6 possessions per contest. Dallas is 3rd in the league in both three-point attempts and makes this season, averaging 14.6 made threes per game.

Luka Doncic is averaging 26.6 points per game over his last five games but has shot just 38.3% from the field in that stretch. In these games, he has averaged 10.2 assists and 8 rebounds. Kyrie Irving is averaging 25 points per game in his last five games while shooting 51.7% from the field and 41.1% from beyond the arc this season.

On the season, the Mavericks are giving up 114.6 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. In their last five games, they have been even stingier, allowing just 103.4 points per game, which is 5th in the league over that span.

On the road this season, Dallas is allowing 115.1 points per game, which is 16th in the NBA. For the season, opposing teams have made 13.1 three-pointers per game against the Mavericks, which is 18th in the league.

Opposing offenses have scored more than their season average in 61.0% of games vs. Dallas this season. In terms of shooting percentage, the Mavs have been solid, ranking 12th in two-point percentage allowed and 18th in three-point percentage allowed.

Will Oklahoma City Secure A Victory as Home Favorites?

The Thunder are looking to extend their win streak to 11 games today against the Mavericks. In the Western Conference, the Thunder are in 1st place with a record of 57-25.

Oklahoma City has been favored in 66 of their 82 games this season and have gone 52-14 in those games. As the favorite, they have a scoring margin of +10.9 points per game, compared to -1.3 as the underdog.

At home, the Thunder are 29-15 straight-up and 36-8 overall. Against the spread, they are 29-15 at home and have an average scoring margin of +13.3 points per game.

In their last game against the Mavericks, the Thunder won 117-95 and covered the spread (-4.5). The O/U line for that game was 218.5 points.

Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 51-36 this season and have covered the spread in their last two home games. The average O/U line in their games this season is 231.1 points and their games have averaged 230.8 points.

The Thunder’s O/U record for the season is 45-41-1, with the under hitting in their last three games.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes into the game averaging 27.6 points per game over his last five games. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Jalen Williams has averaged 20.6 points per game over his last five games while Chet Holmgren has averaged 16 points and 8.4 rebounds in his last five games.

Overall, the Thunder are averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. They are also the league’s 2nd best scoring team at home, putting up 122.3 points per contest. Oklahoma City leads the league in three-point shooting percentage but are just 16th in three-point attempts.

At home this season, the Thunder have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 109.0 points per game, which is 7th best in the league. They have been able to hold opponents to just 45.2% shooting from the field, which is 3rd best in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 90.6 points per game.

One area where they have struggled defensively this season is defending the three-point line, as they have allowed opponents to shoot 35.9% from deep, which is 21st in the NBA. However, opposing teams have attempted just 37.0 three-pointers per game, which is 26th in the league.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Player Props

A player prop we are looking at is Luka Doncic and his points prop of 31.5.

Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -110 while the under is at -120. Our model predicts that Luka Doncic will finish the game going 12/26 from the field and scoring 36 points. Our suggested wager is to bet on the over for his prop bet, which comes with a payout of -110.

  • The Prop: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-110)

Thunder vs. Mavericks Predictions

As the underdogs with a spread of +5, we recommend going with the Mavericks on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 218, and our model predicts the Mavericks and Thunder to score a combined 231 points. We recommend betting on the over.

The Pick: Mavericks +5 | at Fanduel Sportsbook