In this free recurring feature, we will post our favorite tennis plays on the top DFS pick’em sites.
Tennis has become a popular sport for DFS and betting, so let’s see if we can make some money and pick some winners. We will be posting frequent plays with well-reasoned analysis for the biggest events, so keep checking back!
Tennis Props Today – DFS Pick’Em Analysis
Tennis takes place all throughout the day. In order to maintain consistency and expectations, tennis props will be posted when there are major events taking place.
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Friday, March 7th Preview
Looking for the best ATP Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at Indian Wells:
Stefanos Tsitsipas LOWER Than 10 Games Lost
One of the most polarizing players on the ATP Tour, it looked like Stefanos Tsitsipas was heading in the wrong direction in 2025. The Greek went 1-1 in the United Cup, was bounced in Round 1 of the Australian Open by Alex Michelsen, and then lost consecutive matches to players ranked outside the top-70.
But then everything seemed to turn on a dime. Tsitsipas ran rampant in Dubai, defeating Lorenzo Sonego, Matteo Berrettini, Karen Khachanov, and Felix Auger-Aliassime en route to winning the title.
That performance has completely flipped the script for Tsitsipas, who now looks like he could be a dark horse in Indian Wells.
That journey starts with a cushy matchup on Friday against clay-court specialist Thiago Seyboth Wild.
The Brazilian deserves credit for his win over an in-form Alexadre Muller in the opening round, but he was also quite fortunate. He saved 11 of 15 break points and could have easily ended up on the wrong side of that contest if one of those points went the other way.
It’s hard to envision Seyboth Wild getting away with that kind of form again, and Tsitsipas should be buoyant after his win in Dubai.
One of these sets could easily go 6-1 or 6-2 in favor of the Greek, so I like the value on betting Tsitsipas to lose fewer than 10 games.
Matteo Berrettini HIGHER Than 0.5 Sets Lost
On his day, Matteo Berrettini can serve through any opponent. He’s one of the most prolific players on tour when he has the ball, and is able to rack up cheap points when he has his game cooperating.
The problem is that Indian Wells isn’t your typical hard court. Daniil Medvedev already noted it’s playing slowly, and that mutes Berrettini’s best weapon.
The concern here is that Berrettini defeated O’Connell, 2-0, just a couple of weeks ago, but the first set went to a tie-break and O’Connell wilted from there.
The Aussie can dig in and make any match a grind, which is the exact opposite environment that Berrettini wants to play in.
Throw in Berrettini’s win-one-lose-one form this year and there’s enough in this number to play the Italian losing at least one set.
Ugo Humbert LOWER Than 0.5 Sets Lost
Nothing but respect for Kei Nishikori and it was great to see the Japanese legend grind through Jaume Munar in the opening round, but this will likely be a bridge too far for the former US Open runner-up.
At this stage of his career, Nishikori wants to hang in and outlast opponents, but that is much easier said than done against Ugo Humbert
The Frenchman should be able to rack up some cheap points and win quick games on serve, forcing the issue on Nishikori. That spells a lot of trouble for the 35-year-old, who comes into this match having dropped three of his last four.
Thursday, March 6th Preview
Alexander Shevchenko HIGHER Than 22 Games Played
Sometimes the ugliest matches provide the best sweat in tennis.
That’s the case on Thursday as two out-of-form players, Alexander Shevchenko and Rinky Hijikata, meet in the opening round of Indian Wells.
Shevchenko is the lukewarm -150 favorite to win this match with the bookies, but it’s easy to see this thing going in a million different directions.
Neither player is serving well (Shevchenko’s serve is rated 69th out of 76 over the last 52 weeks on the ATP Tour, Hijikata’s is 76th) and their style of play isn’t really conducive to overwhelming their opponent. Add in the slow hard courts at Indian Wells, and you have a recipe for a grueling match with plenty of swings.
There is the danger that one of Hijikata or Shevchenko just no-show and that leads to a quick match, but that seems unlikely. Both of these players will have this contest circled as a chance to get off the schneid and start building some momentum.
It may not be the prettiest match, but this one could be quite the ride. Hopefully it lasts longer than 22 games.
Lorenzo Sonego LOWER Than 0.5 Sets Lost
David Goffin is at an interesting stage of his career.
The former World No. 7 is 34 years old and well past his prime, but he’s shown the past couple of years that he can get white hot out of nowhere and string together some wildly surprising wins. It makes Goffin a tricky player to handicap, because he can also fall completely off the boil at a moment’s notice.
Goffin showed no signs of form heading into last week’s tournament in Acapulco, but he overpowered Hijikata in Round 1 and then upset Ben Shelton in his next match. Those were his first two victories in 2025 and ended a spell that saw the Belgian drop seven in a row.
Goffin now sets his sights on Lorenzo Sonego, who is quite the mercurial player himself.
That said, only one of these players seems likely to completely overpower the other and that’s the Italian.
According to the ATP, Sonego’s serve grades out as the 11th-best of qualifying players over the last 52 weeks and we saw that on display earlier this season when he made a run to the quarterfinals at the Australian Open.
Sonego’s results since then haven’t been great, but part of that just comes down to luck of the draw. Four of the 29-year-old’s last six matches have come against top-20 opposition, so his 2-4 record in that span isn’t all that concerning.
Simply put, Sonego’s toolkit and form look much more encouraging than Goffin’s, which puts some value on this match turning into a whitewash in favor of the Italian.
Gael Monfils HIGHER Than 23 Games Played
UPDATE: This match has been moved to Thursday.
Gael Monfils is one of the most exhilarating athletes on the planet, but part of what makes “La Monf” so special is how his matches can twist, turn, and buckle until the finish line.
His showdown with Jan-Lennard Struff should have plenty of excitement in it, but it’s anybody’s guess how it will finish up. That’s just the nature of Monfils’ game.
What does feel safe is backing this match to last longer than 23 games. Both Monfils and Struff rank inside the top-15 on the ATP Tour in aces per match, so you’d think there’s a good chance that we see at least one tie-breaker, with break points few and far between.
Beyond that, you can hope that all the twists and turns lead to a long match with many chapters. Something that’s never a bad shout when Monfils is on the court.
Wednesday, March 5th Preview
Looking for the best ATP Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at Indian Wells:
Alexandre Muller LOWER Than 0.5 Sets Lost
Alexandre Muller has quietly started to ascend in 2025.
The 28-year-old Frenchman had spent the better part of the previous three seasons on the Challenger Tour, but this year has been a coming out party for Muller. He won a title in Hong Kong in the beginning of January, and then finished as the runner-up in Rio de Janeiro last month.
Muller now turns his sights to Indian Wells, where he takes on clay-court specialist Thiago Seyboth Wild in the opening round.
In a vacuum, you’d say this is a fairly even matchup between two players who have spent a lot of time scrapping their way onto the main tour, but right now there is a pretty sizable gulf between Muller and Seyboth Wild.
First of all, the conditions should suit Muller over Seyboth Wild. And secondly, the two players come into Indian Wells in very different form. Muller is in the midst of his best spell as a pro, while Seyboth Wild has lost his last three matches and is 2-7 so far in 2025.
Muller is a deserving favorite on Wednesday and has every chance to make quick work of the Brazilian.
Gael Monfils HIGHER Than 23 Games Played
UPDATE: This match has been moved to Thursday.
Gael Monfils is one of the most exhilarating athletes on the planet, but part of what makes “La Monf” so special is how his matches can twist, turn, and buckle until the finish line.
His showdown with Jan-Lennard Struff should have plenty of excitement in it, but it’s anybody’s guess how it will finish up. That’s just the nature of Monfils’ game.
What does feel safe is backing this match to last longer than 23 games. Both Monfils and Struff rank inside the top-15 on the ATP Tour in aces per match, so you’d think there’s a good chance that we see at least one tie-breaker, with break points few and far between.
Beyond that, you can hope that all the twists and turns lead to a long match with many chapters. Something that’s never a bad shout when Monfils is on the court.
Kei Nishikori HIGHER Than 22 Games Played
Kei Nishikori is out to prove he still has more left in the tank, but there’s a limit to his game at this point in his career.
At his peak, the former World No. 4 was a tireless competitor and an impossible player to plan for, but with his tools dwindling he seems to be overly reliant on his gamesmanship and experience.
Those skills are certainly still useful – Nishikori went to the finals in Hong Kong to start the year – but aren’t enough to overwhelm most players on the ATP Tour.
Luckily, Nishikori is unlikely to need to overwhelm his opponent on Wednesday. Jaume Munar has had his moments in his career, but his best work has come on the dirt and he’s not the type of player to blast an opponent off the court without much fuss.
All of this adds up to a real arm wrestle, which points us to a play on this one going beyond 22 games.
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Tennis FAQ – Tennis Props & DFS Pick’Em Information
Read on for more information on tennis props and DFS pick’em.
Overview of Tennis Props & Betting Markets
See below for an overview of all of the most popular markets in tennis. Most of these are self-explanatory, and it should be noted that this is not a complete list of every type out there.
- Games Won
- Games Lost
- Sets Won
- Sets Lost
- Games Played
- Aces
- Breakpoints Won
