Best Tennis Props Today – Top Player Picks & Analysis

In this free recurring feature, we will post the best tennis props today on the top DFS pick’em and betting sites, along with the reasons why.

Tennis has become a popular sport for DFS and betting, so let’s see if we can make some money and pick some winners. We will be posting frequent plays with well-reasoned analysis for the biggest events, so keep checking back!

Best Tennis Props Today – DFS Pick’Em & Betting Analysis

Tennis takes place all throughout the day. In order to maintain consistency and expectations, these tennis player props will be posted when there are major events taking place.

Saturday, May 3 Preview

Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Madrid Open:

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff

Aryna Sabalenka battles Coco Gauff in the Madrid Open Final on Saturday. Sabalenka is coming off a 6-3, 7-5 win against Elina Svitolina in the semifinals on Thursday. She also has wins against Anna Blinkova, Elise Mertens, Peyton Stearns, and Marta Kostyuk in the tournament. 

Gauff reached the Final after upsetting Iga Swiatek 6-1, 6-1 on Thursday. She also beat Dayana Yastremska, Ann Li, Belinda Bencic, and Mirra Andreeva on her way to Saturday’s match with Sabalenka. 

Gauff is 5-4 in nine career matches against Sabalenka. Sabalenka beat Gauff 1-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the 2024 Wuhan Open semifinals, but Gauff beat her 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 in the 2024 WTA Finals semifinals.

Sabalenka has been dominant throughout the Madrid Open, leaning on her powerful serve and aggressive baseline game. Her flat groundstrokes have been especially effective in Madrid’s high altitude, allowing her to control rallies and keep points short.

Gauff, however, enters the Final off a shock 6-1, 6-1 demolition of Swiatek—one of her most impressive wins of the season. Gauff’s serve has looked more stable than usual, and her backhand has done heavy damage throughout the tournament. The speed of the Madrid court, which favors first-strike tennis, hasn’t exposed her forehand inconsistency the way slower surfaces do.

This matchup pits Sabalenka’s raw power and aggressive intent against Gauff’s speed, improved serve, and ability to absorb pace. Gauff’s fitness and court coverage give her a chance to extend rallies and force Sabalenka into errors, but if Sabalenka lands her first serve consistently and keeps her unforced errors in check, she can still dictate most points.

This Final is set to be a war of momentum, but Sabalenka’s firepower and Madrid’s altitude give her a slight edge in a tightly contested three-setter.

Pick: Aryna Sabalenka Over 12.5 Total Games | FanDuel

Pick: Both players to win a set | FanDuel

Friday, May 2 Preview

Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Madrid Open:

Francisco Cerundolo vs. Casper Ruud

Francisco Cerundolo is coming off a 3-6, 7-6 (7-5), 6-2 win against Jakub Mensik on Thursday. He also has wins against Harold Mayot, Francisco Comesana, and Alexander Zverev to reach the Madrid Open semifinals.

Casper Ruud upset Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 7-5 on Thursday on his way to this match against Cerundolo. Rudd also beat Arthur Rinderknech, Sebastian Korda, and Taylor Fritz in this tournament.

Cerundolo is 5-3 in eight career matches against Ruud. Cerundolo beat Ruud 6-4, 6-2 in the Miami Open Round of 16 in March and 6-4, 6-4 in the Round Robin of the 2024 Laver Cup.

Cerundolo has shown a knack for adapting mid-match, as evidenced by his comeback win after dropping the first set to Mensik. His path to the Madrid semifinals has included a mix of powerful baseline hitters and elite competition, notably a win over a top-tier player in Zverev.

Cerundolo’s strengths lie in his forehand-heavy offense and comfort on clay, where his topspin and lateral movement create constant pressure. His mental resilience and fitness are also assets, especially in grinding three-setters.

Ruud enters this match with considerable momentum after a straight-sets win over Medvedev in his most recent outing. His route to this point has included victories over varied opponents, showing his tactical flexibility.

Ruud thrives on clay, where his heavy topspin forehand and deep court positioning allow him to dictate rallies. However, recent head-to-head matchups show he’s had trouble containing Cerundolo’s aggressive pace and variety.

Cerundolo has seemingly found a game plan that consistently disrupts Ruud’s rhythm. That said, Ruud is in excellent form this tournament and could adjust tactically, likely focusing on extending rallies and targeting Cerundolo’s backhand to avoid being overpowered from the baseline.

Expect Ruud to strike early, capitalizing on Cerundolo’s occasional slow starts. But Cerundolo’s combination of recent confidence, superior head-to-head performance, and court speed on clay should allow him to wear Ruud down in the final two sets.

Pick: Over 22.5 Games | FanDuel

Jack Draper vs. Lorenzo Musetti

Jack Draper dominated Matteo Arnaldi 6-0, 6-4 in the quarterfinals on Thursday. Draper also beat Tallon Griekspoor, Matteo Berrettini, and Tommy Paul on his way to the semifinals.

Lorenzo Musetti beat Gabriel Diallo 6-4, 6-3 to advance to the semifinals. Musetti also has wins against Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alex De Minaur in this tournament.

Draper is 3-0 in three career matches against Musetti. They last met in the Erste Bank Open semifinals in Vienna last year and Draper won 6-2, 6-4.

Draper’s recent run—dominating top-tier opponents like Berrettini and Paul and dropping just four games in a quarterfinal rout against Arnaldi—evidences that he’s playing with controlled aggression and consistency.

Draper’s lefty serve has been particularly effective, producing free points and setting up his forehand. He’s been dictating rallies early and closing at the net when needed, showing improved court coverage and confidence in his all-court game.

Musetti, meanwhile, is also having a strong tournament, with impressive wins over Etcheverry, Tsitsipas, and De Minaur.

Mussetti’s one-handed backhand remains a signature weapon, especially effective on clay, and he’s shown mental fortitude to beat higher-ranked opponents. However, Musetti can still struggle against players who rush him and take away his rhythm, particularly those with strong serves and flatter, more penetrating shots like Draper.

Draper’s 3-0 record in their head-to-head reflects a stylistic edge. Musetti’s shot tolerance and flair can be nullified by Draper’s pace and angles, especially when the Brit is serving well and stepping inside the baseline.

Expect Draper to control the tempo early, applying pressure on Musetti’s serve, especially with aggressive returns. Musetti will likely have some flashes of brilliance—particularly off his backhand wing—but Draper’s form, power, and confidence should carry him to another straight-sets win.

Pick: I see this match ending in straight sets, so consider investing in a LOWER Than x Games Played market for either player once it is available at Underdog

Thursday, May 1 Preview

Looking for the best ATP and WTA Tennis props today? Check out our FREE picks for the upcoming action at the Madrid Open:

Casper Ruud HIGHER Than 12 Games Lost

Casper Ruud advanced to the Madrid Open quarterfinals by beating Taylor Fritz 7-5, 6-4 on Wednesday. He also defeated Arthur Rinderknech and Sebastian Korda in this tournament.

Daniil Medvedev beat Brandon Nakashima 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 on Wednesday in the fourth round to reach this stage. He also has wins against Laslo Djere and Juan Manuel Cerundolo.

Medvedev is 3-0 in three career matches against Ruud. Their last meeting was in the semifinals of the Nitro ATP Finals in 2021 and Medvedev prevailed 6-4, 6-2.

This match will likely be decided by Medvedev’s superior baseline control and return game versus Ruud’s more traditional clay-court toolkit. While Medvedev has shown vulnerability on clay in the past, he’s adapted well in recent years, and his grinding three-set win over Nakashima shows his resilience when his rhythm is disrupted.

Ruud, meanwhile, enters this matchup having not dropped a set in the tournament, handling Fritz, Korda, and Rinderknech with clean, composed clay-court tennis. His heavy forehand, strong court positioning, and ability to build points patiently are ideal for this surface. 

However, as mentioned before, he’s never beaten Medvedev in three tries. Medvedev’s flat strokes and deep returns challenge Ruud’s preferred topspin-heavy baseline rhythm. Ruud tends to struggle when rushed on the backhand side or when unable to dictate with his forehand. Medvedev, on the other hand, thrives on neutralizing servers and turning defense into offense with awkward angles and court coverage.

Ruud’s improvements on serve and patience may help extend rallies, especially on this surface, but Medvedev’s prior head-to-head dominance and ability to adapt mid-match give him the edge in high-pressure moments.

Pick: Casper Ruud HIGHER Than 12 Games Lost | Underdog

Coco Gauff vs. Iga Swiatek

Coco Gauff reached the Madrid Open semifinals after beating Mirra Andreeva 7-5, 6-1 on Wednesday. Gauff has wins against Dayana Yastremska, Ann Li, and Belinda Bencic in this tournament.  

Iga Swiatek beat Madison Keys 0-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the Madrid Open quarterfinals on Wednesday. She beat Alexandra Eala, Linda Noskova, and Diana Shnaider on her way to the semifinals.

This showdown between Gauff and Swiatek will deliver a high-level tactical battle. Swiatek has dominated the rivalry overall, leading 11-3.

Swiatek beat Gauff 6-2, 6-4 in the 2024 Roland Garros semifinals, but Gauff won their last two matches, 6-3, 6-4 in Round 1 of the 2024 WTA Finals and 6-4, 6-4 in the 2024 United Cup Final.

Madrid’s altitude and clay surface slightly favor Swiatek’s heavy topspin forehand and ability to control rallies from behind the baseline. While Gauff has improved her forehand consistency and court positioning over the past year, Swiatek’s ability to absorb pace and redirect it deep into the corners can still pressure Gauff’s less stable wing. 

Gauff’s serve has become a bigger weapon, and her willingness to move forward gives her a dynamic edge, but Swiatek remains the better returner and clay-court mover.

Given Swiatek’s proven ability to adjust mid-match—as she showed by recovering from a bagel set against Keys—and her past clay dominance, it’s likely this encounter turns into a three-setter.

Swiatek’s edge on clay and tactical flexibility give her the upper hand in longer exchanges, while Gauff’s improved serve and growing confidence keep her competitive throughout.

Pick: HIGHER Than 21.5 Games Played | Underdog

Jack Draper vs. Matteo Arnaldi

Jack Draper is coming off a 6-2, 6-2 win against Tommy Paul in the fourth round on Wednesday. He also beat Tallon Griekspoor and Matteo Berrettini on his way to the Madrid Open quarterfinals.

Matteo Arnaldi has been on a roll, he beat Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 7-5 on Wednesday to reach the quarterfinals. He has wins against Borna Coric, Novak Djokovic, and Damir Dzumhur in this tournament.

Draper is clearly playing confident, aggressive tennis. Draper’s lefty serve, forehand firepower, and ability to dictate from the baseline give him a significant edge when he’s controlling rallies early, especially on faster clay like Madrid’s high-altitude surface.

On the other side, Matteo Arnaldi’s run—capped by a straight-sets win over Frances Tiafoe and highlighted by an upset of Novak Djokovic—shows he’s not just consistent, but thriving against higher-ranked opposition. Arnaldi relies on his court coverage, compact groundstrokes, and ability to neutralize pace. His win over Djokovic suggests he can redirect pace and absorb pressure against big hitters.

This will be the first match between Draper and Arnaldi, and a clash of styles: Draper trying to end points quickly with heavy lefty patterns and Arnaldi looking to extend rallies and force errors.

Pick: HIGHER Than 22 Games Played | Underdog

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Tennis Props Tips and Strategy

Tennis player props can offer sharp bettors a profitable edge — if they know where to look. Unlike traditional match odds, props let you isolate specific outcomes like total aces, double faults, number of sets won, or even individual set winners. But without the right approach, it’s easy to get burned.

Here’s how to improve your tennis props strategy and make sharper bets.

Know the Surface, Know the Player

Not all courts are created equal — and that matters a lot when betting tennis props. Surface speed plays a huge role in player performance. Here’s what to watch:

• Grass: Fastest surface, favors big servers (think: Alexander Zverev).
• Hard Court: Balanced conditions, but bounce varies between venues.
• Clay: Slows the game down, rewards grinders and defensive baseliners.

If you’re betting on props like total aces or service games won, the surface has to be part of your model. Someone like Aryna Sabalenka might average 12 aces on grass but just 6 on clay.

Head-to-Head Matchups Tell a Story

Past results between two players aren’t just trivia — they’re data points. When two players have history, check these:

• Who wins more service games?
• Are matches going the distance?
• Is there a pattern in break points converted?

If a matchup regularly produces long three-setters, there’s value in overs on total games, sets played, or player to win a set props.

Serve and Return Metrics Are Gold

If you’re betting tennis props, serve/return stats should be your bread and butter. Focus on:

• First Serve %
• Service points won %
• Break points saved
• Return games won

Aces and double faults are the obvious outputs, but don’t overlook the deeper numbers. For example, a player with a strong second serve win percentage can survive high-pressure moments — making them more reliable for overs on games won.

Watch for Fatigue and Injury Trends

Tennis players grind through long seasons, and fatigue is real. That’s where sharp bettors thrive:

• Back unders if a player has gone deep in consecutive tournaments.
• Fade players coming off five-set marathons, especially in humid/hard conditions.
• Track players with nagging injuries — especially those affecting serve motion.

These physical factors are rarely priced into prop markets early enough. Use them to your advantage.

Track Line Movement and Market Sentiment

Props are often softer than moneyline markets, but they do move — especially around majors. Look at:

• Opening lines vs. closing lines
• Movement correlated with weather changes (like wind, which kills serve props)
• Public vs. sharp action (some sportsbooks release prop bet splits)

When totals move a full game or ace props tick a few serves up or down, that tells you where the smart money is leaning.

Target Lesser-Known Players and Early Rounds

Books aren’t as sharp when it comes to Challenger-level guys or lesser-known WTA matchups. If you’ve done your homework, there’s more value betting:

• Props in first-round matches, especially when talent is lopsided.
• Up-and-comers with elite junior stats who haven’t hit the mainstream yet.
• Niche markets during smaller ATP 250 and WTA International events.

You won’t get the same prop depth as Grand Slams, but the lines will often be beatable.

Weather, Altitude and Conditions Matter

Fast courts in Mexico City? Slower ones in Miami humidity? Props like service holds and aces are tied to conditions:

• High altitude = faster conditions = more aces, shorter rallies.
• Windy conditions = fewer clean service games = more breaks.

Always factor in the external conditions. They don’t show up on the stat sheet — but they impact everything.

Props Are About Context, Not Just Stats

Tennis props aren’t about blindly riding numbers. It’s about context — surfaces, opponents, mental game, fitness, and even the crowd. When you understand the full picture, your edge increases exponentially.

So stop chasing volume plays on name-brand players and start handicapping props like a pro. The next time you see a “Player A Over 8.5 Aces” market? You’ll know how to break it down.

Most Popular Tennis Props & Betting Markets

See below for an overview of all of the most popular markets in tennis. Most of these are self-explanatory, and it should be noted that this is not a complete list of every type out there.

• Games Won
• Games Lost
• Sets Won
• Sets Lost
• Games Played
• Aces
• Breakpoints Won

Where To Play Tennis DFS Pick’Em

There are numerous operators that consistently post markets for tennis props and DFS pick’ems.

Here are a few of our favorite places you can get in on the tennis DFS action:

Underdog: Special Pick & $1000 Deposit Bonus
Enter Promo Code: PROPS