Following an action-packed regular season and postseason, the NFL serves up quite the rematch on Sunday at Caesars Superdome when the Chiefs and Eagles meet for the second time in the last three Februaries. We’re here to break it all down from a Super Bowl props perspective.
Despite the fact Kansas City is making its fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years, the matchup doesn’t lack for excitement considering the skill-position players on either sideline.
With what could be another nail-biter of a championship clash on tap, let’s take a closer look at the Chiefs-Eagles rematch and a quartet of Super Bowl props from the game to consider on Underdog and PrizePicks.
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Super Bowl Props – Game Preview & Player Picks
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
After a season in which they constantly threaded the needle in terms of close games, the Chiefs were still able to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed by Week 17 with just one loss on their ledger at that point. KC then got past the challenges of the Texans and the Bills in the wild-card and divisional rounds by margins of nine and three points, respectively, to get to Sunday’s championship showdown.
The Eagles had almost as impressive a regular season and saw their offseason investment in Saquon Barkley pay massive dividends after he rushed for a career-high 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns in just 16 regular-season games. Philly has had to traverse a tougher postseason road to get to Super Sunday, going through the Packers, Rams and Commanders in their three playoff games with the help of Barkley’s 442 rushing yards and five touchdowns at 6.7 yards per carry.
While both teams’ defenses are among the best all-around units in the league, Philadelphia was a cut above on paper. The Eagles have allowed an NFL-low 289.3 total yards per game and 4.8 yards per play since the start of the regular season, and they recorded 13 interceptions alongside 41 sacks during the campaign. Meanwhile, Mahomes took a career-high 36 sacks during the regular season and has been taken down another five times through two postseason games.
Saquon Barkley More Than 22 Rush Attempts
Barkley has been a workhorse since his first game in an Eagles uniform, logging a career-high 345 carries across 16 regular-season games, in addition to 33 receptions. The newly minted Offensive Player of the Year has shown no signs of wear in the postseason, averaging 25.5 rush attempts per contest in Philly’s first two playoff games.
Barkley was down to 15 carries in the NFC Championship Game against the Commanders, but a game script that saw the Eagles pull away in the second half had plenty to do with that. He should be well rested with the extra week between games, and Philadelphia will undoubtedly lean on him plenty as it looks to keep Mahomes on the sideline as much as possible.
The Chiefs’ offensive style hasn’t lent to them pulling away from teams, so game script shouldn’t get in the way of Barkley seeing a typical rushing workload. The Chiefs also faced an average of 26.8 rush attempts per game outside Arrowhead Stadium during the regular season, enhancing Barkley’s case.
Where to play: Saquon Barkley more than 22 rush attempts | PrizePicks
Xavier Worthy More Than 56.5 Receiving Yards
Worthy has a tough task in front of him Sunday against an Eagles defense that allowed just a 59.6% catch rate to wide receivers during the regular season. However, the rookie speedster has been a revelation down the stretch, and Worthy has the type of speed that allows him to potentially cash this prop on one catch.
Worthy averaged slightly less than this number – 52.2 receiving yards per game to be exact – since Week 11, but he’s eclipsed 56.5 receiving yards in three of his past four games dating back to Week 16, including in KC’s AFC Championship Game win over the Bills.
The Eagles surrendered 11.2 yards per catch to WRs during the regular season and have allowed four receivers to eclipse 56.5 receiving yards thus far this postseason.
Where to play: Xavier Worthy more than 56.5 receiving yards | PrizePicks
DeVonta Smith Higher Than 51.5 Receiving Yards
Much like Worthy, Smith has the speed to rip off chunk gains and vault over this yardage prop with a modest number of catches. Moreover, Smith has a solid track record of success against Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defenses.
Smith produced a 6-99 line on eight targets against the Chiefs in a Week 11 win back in 2023. That impressive performance was preceded by a seven-catch, 100-yard effort versus KC in Super Bowl LVII.
Smith posted at least 51 receiving yards in four straight games from Week 15 through the NFC Wild Card Game, and he’s accomplished the feat on nine occasions overall since the start of the regular season. Kansas City gave up 11.4 yards per reception to WRs during the regular season and an average of 138.8 per game to the position overall.
Given Smith’s prior body of work against this defensive scheme and many of these same players and the likelihood the Eagles maintain a certain level of aggression offensively, this is a viable bet to consider.
Where to play: DeVonta Smith higher than 51.5 receiving yards | Underdog
Dallas Goedert Higher Than 0.5 First Drive Receptions (1.3x payout)
While Smith should have his opportunities on the perimeter, the Chiefs’ defense has been most generous to tight ends. Kansas City finished the regular season tied for the second-most receptions allowed to TEs (106), while also surrendering the most receiving yards to the position for good measure (1,191).
Goedert has enjoyed a steady role throughout the postseason, logging 18 targets over the first three playoff games and parlaying them into 15 receptions. Dating back to Week 11, Goedert has averaged 4.4 grabs on 5.4 targets per game, underscoring how efficient he’s been from a catch-rate perspective. Additionally, KC gave up a 77.9 percent catch rate to TEs during the regular season and has conceded eight receptions to tight ends through two postseason games as well.
Philadelphia has also scored on all three opening drives thus far this postseason, a nice bonus stat that supports the notion of Philly holding the ball long enough on the first possession to get Goedert at least one catch.
Where to play: Dallas Goedert higher than 0.5 first drive receptions (1.3x payout) | Underdog
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Super Bowl props content linked below.