We’re going to hunt for the best NFL Week 9 props for this weekend!
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
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Mining the Metrics: Week 9 Player Props
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
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Christian McCaffrey, SF at NYG
- Over 131.5 rushing + receiving yards
McCaffrey figures to be a popular subject of prop bets this week, and with good reason – he’s locked into perhaps the best matchup for running backs in the league and has an ironclad role as both rusher and receiver that could help lead him to his best overall showing of the season yet.
McCaffrey’s one true breakout effort to date in 2025 came two games ago against the Falcons, when he ripped off 129 rushing and a pair of scores while adding a 7-72-0 line through the air. The perennial Pro Bowler has seen at least 17 carries in all but one game – last week’s outlier of a loss to the Texans – and six or more targets in each contest, including at least 10 in three.
The Giants have struggled against the run all season, now surrendering an NFL-high 6.12 RB yards per carry after being gashed by Saquon Barkley in essentially three quarters in Week 8. New York has also conceded the most second-level (1.57) and open-field (1.93) yards per carry, making this about as pristine a matchup as possible.
McCaffrey is averaging 24.5 touches per game, is being targeted on 27.7% of his routes, and is clocking 2.09 yards per route run as well. New York has also given up a 35-225 receiving line to running backs, so a combination prop here for an explosive player averaging exactly 131.5 rushing + receiving yards per contest, even when factoring in last week’s dud versus Houston, is viable.
Tyler Warren, IND at PIT
- Over 54.5 receiving yards
Warren has essentially delivered on all the hype surrounding him coming into his rookie season, but he’s yet to have his first true breakout game as a pro in a lethally efficient Colts offense that runs primarily through Jonathan Taylor’s MVP-level exploits on the ground and an egalitarian air attack.
However, that first signature performance could well be on tap this week during a game the Colts are projected for 26.75 points (and rising) in. Warren already has a steady, reliable role in Indy’s standout offense, posting a 37-492-3 line on 50 targets while also adding a rushing touchdown.
Warren is averaging an impressive 2.24 yards per route run, as well as an outstanding 8.2 yards after the catch per reception. Meanwhile, the Steelers will be missing at least two safeties for Sunday’s game, as both DeShon Elliott (IR, knee) and Jabrill Peppers (quadriceps) are ruled out, while Chuck Clark is questionable due to illness.
Pittsburgh has already surrendered a 45-555-6 receiving line to tight ends across seven games, along with a 73.8% catch rate to the position. Warren is being targeted on a solid 22.7% of his routes, and he’s taken eight of his receptions for 20+ yards while eclipsing this prop in five of his first eight games and coming within two yards of the mark in a sixth.
Kyle Monangai, CHI at CIN
- Over 70.5 rushing yards
D’Andre Swift has been ruled out for Sunday’s game due to his lingering groin injury, as has No. 3 back Roschon Johnson (back). Therefore, it figures to be Monangai or bust when it comes to the bulk of the work in the ground versus Cincinnati, setting the rookie up for a big workload against one of the most vulnerable run defenses in the league.
The Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 5.39 adjusted line yards per carry, along with with an AFC-high 5.26 RB yards per carry as well. Cincy is also ranked No. 30 in second-level yards (1.48) and No. 25 in open-field yards (1.03) per carry surrendered. For his part, Monangai sports an impressive 19.0% broken-tackle rate, and he’s taken six of his 42 carries for 10+ yards in his part-time role.
The Bengals are facing the NFL’s ninth-highest rush play rate as well (46.37%), and Chicago’s offensive line has blocked to the third-most adjusted line yards (4.97), 11th-most RB yards (4.66), and most second-level yards (1.55) per carry, making them a dangerous foe for a porous Cincy defensive front that is likely to be without Trey Hendrickson (hip).
Kimani Vidal, LAC at TEN
- Over 75.5 rushing yards
- Anytime TD scorer
Vidal is another young back primed for a big workload in Week 9, in his case thanks to the ongoing absence of Omarion Hampton (IR, ankle). Vidal has proven adept for the most part at shouldering the load in Los Angeles’ ground attack thus far, exceeding the 100-yard mark in two of his first three games as the lead back.
The second-year pro has had some extra down time to prepare for this highly favorable matchup since Los Angeles played on Thursday night in Week 8. The Titans are an enticing target for Vidal to carry over the momentum of his 117-yard, one-touchdown effort versus the Vikings last time out, as Tennessee is surrendering the fifth-most RB yards per carry (5.08).
The Titans are also ranked No. 24 in second-level yards (1.34) and No. 30 in open-field yards (1.49) per carry allowed, while Vidal has an encouraging 74.1% positive-run rate and has seen 18 and 23 carries in the two positive game scripts he’s been involved in as a starter.
Additionally, the Titans have surrendered an NFL-high 11 red-zone rushing touchdowns and 12 rush TDs overall to running backs. Therefore, Vidal’s TD prop is also in play, considering he received 14 red-zone carries in his first three games as the lead back (along with four targets) and the Chargers are projected for just under 27 points as of Friday afternoon.
Sam Darnold, SEA at WAS
- Over 238.5 passing yards
Darnold’s already come through in this column this season thanks to his aggressive approach downfield, and we’re banking on the same from him coming out of the bye against a Commanders team that’s had trouble preventing chunk plays through the air all season.
Washington is surrendering an NFL-high 12.0 yards per completion, including 12.3 per home game. They’re also yielding 260.9 passing yards to QBs per contest, as well as 8.4 yards per attempt. All those figures dovetail well with Darnold’s profile this season, as he’s averaging a career-high 9.1 yards per attempt, as well as an NFL-high 9.7 intended air yards per attempt and 8.7 completed air yards per attempt.
The Seahawks also boast an NFL-high 8.1% explosive-play rate, while the Commanders are tied with several teams for second-most yards per play allowed (5.9).
