Here’s our NFL Week 10 best bets! We’re going to hunt for the best NFL Week 10 props and talk about the top Sunday picks.
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
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Mining the Metrics: NFL Week 10 Player Props
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
Looking for more content? We’ve got you covered all season:
- NFL News Hub
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- Monday Night Football Props
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NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Kyle Pitts
- Higher Than 4.5 receptions
After years of perpetual underutilization relative to his talent, Pitts’ role has finally gained a measure of week-to-week consistency.
The veteran tight end already has a 43-482-1 receiving line on 54 targets in just eight contests, with four of his catches going for 20+ yards. In comparison, Pitts averaged 42.7 receptions for 541.7 receiving yards with 6.3 receptions of 20+ yards across 14.7 games over the prior three campaigns.
Part of Pitts’ more accelerated accumulation of stats this season has been due to much more catchable throws, as his 6.2-yard aDOT is the lowest of his career, and it’s helped lead to a career-high 79.6% catch rate.
This week, Pitts is in a good position to continue adding to his numbers overseas in the Berlin clash against a Colts defense that’s surrendered the second-most catches (60) and receiving yards (674) to tight ends.
Additionally, Indy is surrendering a 74.1% catch rate to the position and a robust 8.3 yards per target. Finally, it’s worth noting the Colts are playing the sixth-highest rate of man coverage in the last five games, while Pitts is averaging a robust 2.64 yards/route run against the coverage in that same span.
Best Bet Sunday: De’Von Achane
- Higher Than 61.5 rushing yards
Achane has been one of the few consistent week-to-week impact players in the Dolphins’ offense, even as Tua Tagovailoa’s performances have been all over the map. Achane is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has recorded 18 receptions for 101 yards over the last four games, averaging 19.8 touches per contest in that span.
Achane posted 67 rushing yards on just 12 carries against the Bills on the road back in Week 3, and he’s averaging 81 rushing yards per contest over his first four home games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is allowing the third-most RB yards per carry (5.13) while ranking No. 28 and No. 31 in second-level and open-field yards per carry surrendered, respectively.
The Bills are also conceding the fifth-highest explosive-play rate (6.8%) and have generated the third-highest missed-tackle rate (14.6%) in the last five contests, two figures that bode well for Achane, who boasts an above-average 18.2% broken-tackle rate and averages 5.0 yards per carry.
NFL Best Bet: Jameson Williams
- Over 44.5 receiving yards
Williams jumped back onto the Lions air attack’s radar in the Week 9 loss to the Vikings, posting a 4-66-1 receiving line on six targets. It was Williams’ second 66-yard, one-TD effort in the last three games, sandwiching a Week 7 blanking on three targets that led the coaching staff to commit to getting the speedy receiver the ball more often.
Williams now walks into what might be the best all-around matchup for receivers with a downfield profile the caliber of the 2022 first-round pick. The Commanders are surrendering an NFL-high 12.4 yards per completion, including 13.3 per home contest, as well as the third-highest yards per play (6.2), including 7.1 in the last three.
Williams has an elevated 15.1-yard aDOT and is laying claim to 35.8% of Detroit’s air yards, also a significant figure. Washington is also playing man coverage at a top-10 rate (37.97%), while Williams is averaging 2.57 yards/route run against man, including 3.25 in the last three contests. Six of his 21 catches have gone for 20+ yards as well, so if he’s the subject of another 6-8 targets, he’ll be in line to eclipse this yardage.
Best Packers Player Props Today: Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs
- Christian Watson Higher Than 35.5 receiving yards
- Romeo Doubs Higher Than 52.5 receiving yards
The reasoning behind the double GB WR entry here is due to Watson’s iffy status because of “load management” on his surgically repaired knee. With Watson having practiced on a limited basis both Thursday and Friday, there’s at least a hint of doubt about his status for Monday night’s game against the Eagles.
Assuming he’s a full go, his yardage prop is an eye-catching one, but if Watson is out, Doubs’ prop becomes a point of interest. There’s even a scenario where rolling with both bets is a consideration, although that would be a lower-percentage proposition.
The matchup lines up particularly well for Watson, considering his ability to get downfield and the fact Philadelphia has allowed the fourth-highest yards per completion on the road (11.6). The Eagles are also utlizing man coverage at an NFL-high 50.9% clip, while Watson is averaging 3.63 yards per route run against man in a small sample this season, and 3.69 in a larger sample in 2024.
Watson has taken three of his six catches so far this season for 20+ yards, and he also did so on 17 of his 57 receptions in the prior two campaigns.
Doubs’ numbers against man aren’t quite as impressive but still solid – he averaged 2.47 yards/route run vs. that coverage last season and has a solid 1.78 figure at home this season in that split. If Watson is out, Doubs, who has a career-high 13.4-yard aDOT and whose seven receptions of 20+ yards are just one fewer than he recorded last season across 13 games, is certainly in play.
D’Andre Swift Player Props Today
- Higher Than 46.5 rushing yards
Swift’s prop is as high as 51.5 at several sportsbooks, but this number is available at DraftKings as of early Saturday. This prop is included as a bonus because of some doubt surrounding Swift’s availability after he went from full participant Thursday to a missed Friday session for personal reasons and due to his lingering groin injury.
If Swift suits up, he’ll face a Giants defense allowing an NFL-high 5.89 RB yards per carry, and also sporting No. 32 rankings in both second-level and open-field yards per carry surrendered. Swift has eclipsed 46.5 rushing yards in four of seven games, and he fell just two yards short against the Ravens in Week 8 despite logging only 11 carries.
