The smell of football is in the air. Training camps are right around the corner, and July is technically the last month of 2022 without NFL football. I’m counting the preseason, but beggars can’t be choosers at this point.
With the start of the season in sight, it’s time to dive into some of my favorite NFL season-long rushing yard prop bets for the upcoming year.
These rushing yard prop bets will focus heavily on Unders. The Under is almost always the correct play in season-long bets, and I would argue that’s especially true for running backs. Running backs take a physical beating, making them far more vulnerable to injury than players at other positions.
With that, let’s dive right into the top NFL season-long rushing yard prop bets for 2022.
Top NFL Season-Long Rushing Yard Prop Bets
Broncos RB Javonte Williams Under 975.5 Yards
Everyone loves Williams. I 100% get it. He is a phenomenal runner, leading the league with an average of 6.5 attempts per broken tackle as a rookie. Rhamondre Stevenson was the only other player even in the same ballpark, averaging one broken tackle for every 8.3 attempts.
However, Williams’ stock took a serious hit given the Broncos’ offseason moves. They brought back Melvin Gordon, who figures to split the workload with Williams once again this season. Both players had exactly 203 carries last year, although Williams did benefit from one additional game. The split will probably be a bit more in Williams’ favor this season, but he is not going to be a feature back.
Additionally, the Broncos might run the ball at a lower frequency after acquiring Russell Wilson. The Broncos ran the ball at the 10th highest rate last year, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they skewed more towards the pass given the massive upgrade at quarterback.
Add in the omnipresent injury concern at the position, and I’m willing to bank on an Under for Williams.
Where to bet: Javonte Williams Under 975.5 rushing yards | -130 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Steelers RB Najee Harris Under 1200.5 yards
Harris is another second-year player coming off a quality rookie year. He racked up exactly 1,200 rushing yards in his first season with the Steelers.
That said, his campaign was built on volume more than efficiency. His 307 carries ranked second in the league, but he averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards per attempt. His offense didn’t do him any favors – he averaged the sixth-fewest yards before contact among all running backs – and that doesn’t figure to change much in 2022-23.
If anything, Harris’ supporting cast could be worse this year. The team lost Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and they will be starting either rookie Kenny Pickett or reformation project Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Roethlisberger wasn’t nearly the same player in his final year, but he still might be better than those guys.
If Harris doesn’t see the same rushing volume for whatever reason, he’ll struggle to repeat his numbers from his rookie year.
Where to bet: Najee Harris Under 1,200.5 rushing yards | -112 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Trey Lance Over 500.0 Rushing Yards
The one Over I feel confident in resides at the quarterback position. All reports indicate that Lance will take over as the 49ers starting signal-caller, and he’s a major threat with his legs. He averaged 12 carries and 60 rushing yards per game in his two starts last year, so asking him to get over 500 is very reasonable for a full year.
Where to bet: Trey Lance Over 500 rushing yards | -150 at DraftKings Sportsbook
James Conner Under 825.5 Rushing Yards
Conner was one of the best stories in the league last season, posting a massive season with the Cardinals. However, he played a career-high 15 games, and health is something he’s struggled with throughout his career. He also benefitted from Chase Edmonds suffering multiple injuries, and while he’s now with the Dolphins, Conner will still have to split time with the dependable Darrel Williams. It’s a great spot to bet on some regression.
Where to bet: James Conner Under 825.5 rushing yards | -112 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Ezekiel Elliott Under 875.5 Rushing Yards
Could this year be the passing of the torch at running back in Dallas? It’s possible. Tony Pollard was better than Elliott in virtually every way last year, but Elliot saw 107 more carries than him. That gap could significantly narrow this season, and Elliott isn’t the same efficient runner as in his prime. The Cowboys’ offensive line isn’t quite as good as in years past, but that didn’t stop Pollard from doing major damage behind them last year.
Where to bet: Ezekiel Elliott Under 875.5 rushing yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook