The Indianapolis Colts are playing host to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. It’s a divisional matchup that won’t have a ton of playoff implications, at least in a head-to-head sense. And for NFL Props, there are several juicy matchups.
Indianapolis is coming off of a long week where they played the Jets in a wild Thursday night game. Meanwhile, the Jags got what is almost certain to be their biggest win of the season, beating the Bills in a wildly dull 9-6 game on Sunday afternoon.
So which of the NFL Props should you target? Jonathan Taylor’s yardage total is the way to go. Here’s why:
The Case For Taylor
The Prop: Jonathan Taylor Total Rushing Yards (vs Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Odds: Over 90.5 -110/Under 90.5 -120
Jonathan Taylor has been a man on a mission over the last few weeks, posting games of 145, 107, 70, and 172 rushing yards over the last 4 weeks. Taylor has also hit the over on this prop in 4 of the last 6 weeks, something that likely has the number rising again and again each week.
Taylor has clearly asserted himself as the lead back in this backfield, but that doesn’t mean he is getting 95% of the snaps or the touches, as the Colts have Nyheim Hines, one of the best change of pace backs in the NFL. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t continue to expect to see Taylor getting 15-20 carries a game, just as he has all season long.
NFL Props: A Look At The Matchup
The matchup angle here is a tricky one. I think that the Jags interior defensive line and linebacker play are good against the run and that shows up in the stats. However, the game script is definitely set up for a run-heavy game plan on Sunday afternoon.
This is definitely not unusual for the Jags opponents, so let’s quantify this with some defensive stats. The Jacksonville Jaguars rush defense ranks just 12th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, which doesn’t sound great. However, they rank 3rd in the NFL in rush yard per carry against.
JONATHAN TAYLOR IS HAVING A NIGHT 💪
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/WhMVvWANSx
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 5, 2021
I think that we will see the Jags focus on the run here and I think that we should see Taylor limited to some degree. Taylor is good at hitting those big runs like the one in the clip above, so an under will never feel great. That being said, the under is the right play here if you are willing to close your eyes and check the box score at the end of the game.
