Latavius Murray should return to the lineup in this matchup with the Bears. Will he be greeted by plenty of carries, or is Devonta Freeman still the main rusher in Baltimore? This edition of the NFL Player Props Series looks to answer that question in regards to whether or not Murray can surpass 31.5 rushing yards in Week 11.
All props and odds are via BetPrep as of 12:45 pm on Nov. 18.
Baltimore Ravens: Latavius Murray
The Prop: Over 31.5 rushing yards at Chicago Bears
The Odds: -115 projected on BetPrep
Latavius Murray should return to the Ravens this weekend after missing the last few games due to injury. And it’s at an opportune time.
Murray’s rushing yards over is one of my favorite spots in Week 11. Le’Veon Bell was released this week, suggesting this backfield will be just Murray and Devonta Freeman.
There are three reasons Murray will go over his rushing yards this weekend: the defense he’s facing, his usage, and BetPrep trends.
Let’s explore all three.
Chicago’s Rushing Vulnerabilities
The Bears come into this one sporting a bottom-ten run defense, very un-Bears-like.
Chicago allows 107.9 rushing yards to running backs per game, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL.
Efficiency-wise, the Bears allow 4.4 yards per rush, the fifth-highest total in the league. Before shutting down Najee Harris before their bye, the Bears had let three straight rushing attacks go over 135 rushing yards.
This is not the Chicago defense you’re accustomed to. Ravens are in a top-five rushing offense, are poised to take advantage.
Latavius Murray’s Role in This Offense
Prior to missing the past three games, Murray had an established role on this offense, seeing between 26-45 snaps per game.
Murray should return this weekend:
A look at Ravens RB Latavius Murray back at Wednesday’s practice pic.twitter.com/SFZK3BWUy5
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) November 17, 2021
With Le’Veon Bell now out of the picture, it’s much easier to trust that Murray will get his touches in this offense. Murray averages just under ten carries per game.
Considering his 3.6 yards per carry and the bump that the Bears defense will give him, 31.5 yards is very much attainable.
BetPrep Trends
The final push on this bet is the data provided by BetPrep. Their platform offers you positive and negative trends that bring confidence to your picks.
Murray’s BetPrep page shows two positive trends that support this pick:
— Ran for 32+ yards in 22 of his last 31 (70.97%) games when he averaged at least 4.5 rush yards per attempt last game.
— Ran for 32+ yards in 13 of his last 17 (76.47%) games when he is averaging at least 0.6 rush TDs per game on the season.
The weak Bears defense is the primary target. With the ability to trust Murray’s role on this team and his past production, I feel confident rolling into the weekend with Murray as one of my favorite prop bets.
Good luck this weekend! For more on the NFL, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.