One of my favorite NFL Player Props for Week 8 has been Lions running back D’Andre Swift to go over his receptions total against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have seriously struggled covering the middle of the field, where Swift operates. Swift has been a force for Detroit and leads the team in receiving.
Together, it’s the perfect storm for betting an over. Here are three reasons why betting on D’Andre Swift to go over 5.5 receptions is a smart bet on Sunday.
His Role
Swift leads this Lions team in receiving yards and has one less target than TJ Hockenson, second-most on the team with 52.
Jared Goff trusts Swift and the team designs plays to get the ball in his hands out of the backfield.
Swift has yet to see less than five targets in a game and averages 7.43 per game. He’s gone over this reception total in 50% of his games this season.
He’s the top offensive weapon for the Lions and sees elite volume; he can be trusted to get his catches and his yards.
This Philly Defense
The Eagles have been slipping of late, partially due to the soft defensive scheme they’ve been trotting out.
Philadelphia is taking away the deep ball by playing safeties deep, and in doing so, sacrificing the middle of the field too short and intermediate passes.
Just last week, Derek Carr completed over 91% of his passes, all over the middle of the field.
Linebacker Alex Singleton, in particular, has been a disaster in coverage, allowing the most Yards After Catch (YAC) in the NFL.
Well, in comes Swift, who leads the NFL in YAC and primarily catches the ball over the middle of the field, where the Eagles play soft.
It’s hard to imagine an adjustment coming out of Philly; they’ve allowed quarterbacks to gash them over the middle all season.
BetPrep’s Projection
Before placing any player prop for an NFL Sunday, it’s a good idea to check out their page on BetPrep.
For Swift, what stuck out to me was BetPrep projected him to finish with 5.89 receptions, a +7.06% increase over his reception line.
They’re higher on Swift than the books, and while it’s not an egregious difference, it’s enough to push this pick over the edge.
The Pick
With an established role and a weak defense on the other end, Swift is in for a big game in Week 8. Bet him confidently, and good luck!
