NFL passing props let you bet on individual quarterback performance instead of just team results.
Whether you’re looking at how many yards a quarterback will throw, how many completions they’ll rack up, or how many touchdowns they’ll toss, passing props offer a wide range of betting options.
From season-long wagers to live in-game bets, these markets add another layer of excitement to every throw.
This guide breaks down everything you need to know about NFL passing props. Learn how they work, when to bet, where to find the best lines, and our expert picks and predictions for the best NFL passing props available today.
Best NFL passing props available today — Our experts picks
Below, you’ll find our best season-long long passing props for the upcoming 2025 season.
Jared Goff Less Than 29.5 Passing Touchdowns
In four seasons with the Lions, Jared Goff has passed for 19, 29, 30, and 37 touchdowns. He’s thrived in back-to-back years. However, Ben Johnson was his offensive coordinator and play caller for the previous three years, and Johnson is now Chicago’s new head coach.
In Goff’s only season with Anthony Lynn as Detroit’s offensive coordinator, Goff passed for 19 touchdowns. Obviously, the Lions have drastically improved their supporting cast in the last few years since his first year in the organization.
However, Goff wasn’t a passing touchdown machine before his tenure with the Lions, either. After a dreadful rookie season in 2016, he made a huge step forward after Sean McVay was hired as the head coach in 2017. Nevertheless, from 2017 through 2020, with McVay as his head coach, Goff had just 28, 32, 22, and 20 passing touchdowns.
Detroit’s offense and Goff could take a step back with John Morton as the team’s new offensive coordinator. Morton was the offensive coordinator for the Jets in 2017. Josh McCown (18 passing touchdowns) and Bryce Petty (one passing touchdown) combined for only 19 passing touchdowns. Morton didn’t have top-shelf ingredients to work with in his first stint as an offensive coordinator. Regardless, Johnson has been a hot commodity during coaching searches in the previous two years, and Morton has a high bar to clear to keep the Lions’ offense on track.
Additionally, the Lions love their running game. They were tied for the eighth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (48%) in 2024. Moreover, per the data suite at Fantasy Points, Detroit had a 51.4% rush rate inside the 20-yard line and a 58.0% rush rate inside the 10-yard line last year. I don’t expect Dan Campbell and the Lions to reverse course and air it out in scoring territory, and even a few hiccups in the transition to Morton as the offensive coordinator can keep Goff under 30 passing touchdowns in 2025.
Where to play: Jared Goff Less Than 29.5 Passing Touchdowns | Underdog
Jayden Daniels More Than 3,299.5 Passing Yards
Jayden Daniels had a sensational rookie season, leading the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game while capturing Offensive Rookie of the Year hardware. According to Pro Football Reference, Daniels averaged 209.9 passing yards per game en route to 3,568 passing yards in 17 games in the regular season.
Daniels’ full-season average was depressed by his Week 7 and Week 18 starts. He was knocked out of the Week 7 game against the Panthers after only 10 offensive snaps (14.5%) and played just 26 (44.8%). He passed for six yards against Carolina and 38 against the Cowboys in Week 18. Daniels averaged a more impressive 234.9 passing yards per game in his other 15 contests. Furthermore, if you add Daniels’ 822 passing yards in the playoffs to the 15-game sample without early exits, Daniels averaged 241.4 passing yards per game.
Daniels’ success through the air was made all the more impressive by his lackluster cast of weapons beyond Terry McLaurin. Old-man Zach Ertz was his second-best passing-game weapon. The Commanders have added to their pass-catching corps in the offseason, trading for Deebo Samuel and drafting speedy wideout Jaylin Lane. Daniels’ passing yardage prop leaves some wiggle room for missing a few games and still going over, as he did last year when exiting two contests early.
Where to play: Jayden Daniels More Than 3,299.5 Passing Yards | Underdog
Top sportsbooks for betting on NFL passing props
The sportsbooks you choose to place your passing prop bets can impact your odds, available passing prop bet types, and bonus value if any are available. Below, we compare top sportsbooks by market depth, pricing, and sign-up offers to help you find the best fit for your NFL passing props.
DraftKings
DraftKings is a go-to sportsbook for NFL passing props, offering one of the widest ranges in the market. You’ll find player passing yards, touchdowns, completions, interceptions, and even weekly specials.
The platform is fast, user-friendly, and offers stats-driven insights. DraftKings consistently offers competitive odds and early lines, especially during big NFL weeks. New users can get a generous sign-up bonus, like a first deposit match or bet credit bonus.
FanDuel
FanDuel shines for NFL passing props. Its well-organized layout makes it easy to browse passing yards, TD totals, and fun alternate lines. It also offers same-game parlays, combining multiple passing props for bigger payouts.
The sportsbook’s odds are strong, often leading the pack on popular quarterback props. There’s usually a sign-up bonus for new players, like a “bet and get” offer or bonus bets on your first wager.
Caesars
Caesars brings a premium experience with a full slate of NFL passing props, including player totals, milestones, and even custom bet options for top matchups.
The app is sleek, easy to navigate, and backed by reliable customer service. Caesars often runs special promos during the NFL season. New users usually get a big welcome bonus, like first-bet insurance up to a set amount.
BetMGM
BetMGM delivers a strong lineup of NFL passing props, from total yards to TD passes, and they usually offer live betting options as games unfold. The interface is clean, and the “Edit My Bet” feature adds flexibility if you want to adjust your passing props mid-game.
This sportsbook is known for regular prop specials and odds boosts, especially around primetime NFL games. New users generally get a first-bet offer, giving you bonus bets if your initial wager doesn’t hit.
Fanatics
Fanatics is quickly becoming a favorite among bettors, especially with its sharp selection of NFL passing props. Expect competitive lines on player yards, touchdowns, and other passing stats.
The platform integrates cleanly with Fanatics merchandise perks, adding a unique twist to your betting experience. New users often receive a welcome bonus, like bonus bets back on your first wager, making joining in on the action easy.
Single game NFL passing props explained
Single-game NFL passing prop bets let you wager on a quarterback’s performance in a specific game. Instead of waiting all season, these bets resolve quickly (often in just a few hours), adding immediate excitement.
Here are some popular bet types, plus some riskier options.
Total passing yards over/under per game
Total passing yards involves betting on whether a quarterback will surpass or stay below a certain yardage total for a single game.
Sportsbooks set these totals by examining recent player performance, defensive matchups, weather, and other situational factors.
Bettors enjoy this prop because yardage totals directly reflect player skill and game action. It’s easy to track and provides continuous excitement as yards add up during the game.
Example: Joe Burrow’s yardage prop is set at 275.5 yards against the Browns. You bet the over, and he finishes with 290 yards. Your bet wins.
Main bet influences:
- Opposing defense’s pass coverage
- Quarterback’s recent form and consistency
- Weather conditions (wind, rain, snow)
- Offensive strategy (pass-heavy or run-focused)
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Target quarterbacks facing weak secondary units.
- Check weather forecasts for passing conditions.
- Consider team offensive schemes and recent trends.
Passing touchdowns over/under per game
Passing touchdown props are where you try to predict if a quarterback will throw more or fewer touchdowns than a sportsbook’s game-specific number.
Lines are based on red-zone efficiency, defensive matchups, and anticipated scoring opportunities. Touchdown props are popular for their high entertainment value, tying bets to exciting scoring plays.
Example: Jalen Hurts’ touchdown total is set at 1.5 against the Giants. You bet over, and Hurts throws two touchdowns. You win the bet.
Main bet influences:
- Red-zone offense strength
- Opponent’s defensive pass coverage
- Receiver availability and health
- Recent quarterback scoring trends
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Select quarterbacks facing defenses weak in red-zone coverage.
- Monitor player injuries affecting receiving options.
- Evaluate offensive scheme tendencies near the goal line.
Passing completions over/under per game
Passing completions are where you bet on whether the quarterback completes more or fewer passes than the established total for a game.
Totals reflect accuracy, game script, and defensive quality. This prop appeals to bettors interested in accuracy and strategic play calling.
Example: Kirk Cousins’ completions total is set at 24.5 against the Bears. You bet under, and Cousins finishes with only 22 completions, resulting in a winning bet.
Main bet influences:
- Quarterback accuracy and recent completion percentage
- Defensive strategy and ability to disrupt passing routes
- Expected game tempo (fast-paced games favor more completions)
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Bet on accurate quarterbacks in matchups with softer pass defenses.
- Consider games likely to have high offensive output.
- Look for quarterbacks who use short, high-percentage throws.
Passing attempts over/under per game
Passing attempts prop bets revolve around how many times a quarterback attempts a pass in a single game.
Sportsbooks set totals based on expected offensive approaches and game situations. This method is popular because it relates directly to game strategy and anticipated play calling.
Example: Lamar Jackson’s total attempts are set at 29.5 against the Steelers. You take the over, and Jackson attempts 33 passes. Your bet wins.
Main bet influences:
- Team offensive game plans
- Game script (teams trailing typically pass more)
- Opponent defensive pressure and style
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Bet on quarterbacks likely to play from behind, forcing more passing.
- Consider coaches’ tendencies in key matchups.
- Avoid matchups where a run-heavy approach is probable.
Interception totals per game
This passing prop involves predicting whether a quarterback throws more or fewer interceptions than the given number.
Lines consider quarterback tendencies, defensive strengths, and situational risks. This bet type is intriguing as it predicts mistakes and adds another layer of excitement.
Example: Brock Purdy’s interception line is set at 0.5 against the Cowboys. You bet under, and Purdy completes the game without an interception. Your bet wins.
Main bet influences:
- Quarterback risk-taking tendencies
- Opposing defense’s interception rate and aggression
- Game conditions (weather, defensive pressure)
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Focus on quarterbacks known for taking risks or being pressured often.
- Target defenses adept at forcing turnovers.
- Consider bad weather conditions or challenging road environments.
Other, less popular, single-game passing props
Some sportsbooks offer unusual NFL passing props, like betting on a quarterback’s longest completion or even whether they’ll record a reception themselves.
Typically set as numeric lines or simple yes/no scenarios, these bets appeal to casual or novelty bettors. Single-game props are fun but risky, so they’re not ideal for consistent or strategic bettors.
Example: A prop offers “Will Justin Fields complete a pass longer than 50 yards against the Packers?” You bet no, and his longest pass is only 35 yards. Your bet wins.
Main bet influences:
- Play calling creativity
- Specific game conditions and player matchups
- Rare, unpredictable scenarios
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Generally best avoided unless for entertainment.
- If wagering, choose games with highly unpredictable circumstances.
Season-long NFL passing props explained
Season-long NFL passing prop bets (short for proposition bets) let you predict how specific quarterbacks will perform throughout an entire season.
Rather than betting on single-game results, you wager on the total player stats accumulated from week one all the way through to the final game. These props offer exciting opportunities to follow players closely and keep your interest alive throughout the season.
Let’s break down some popular prop bet types and less common ones.
Total season passing yards over/under
In this bet, sportsbooks set a total number of passing yards for a quarterback over an entire season. You decide if they’ll pass for more (over) or fewer (under) yards than that number.
Sportsbooks create this line using previous stats, projected team strategy, and schedule strength. Bettors then analyze these same details to choose their wager.
This prop is popular because it’s easy and keeps you engaged every week. It lets you cheer for or against a player’s success all season long, regardless of their team’s performance.
Example: Patrick Mahomes has a total set at 4,700.5 yards. You bet on the over. By the end of the season, Mahomes finishes with 4,812 passing yards. Your bet wins because he exceeded the set line.
Main bet influences:
- Player performance and consistency
- Team offensive style and strategy
- Past results and trends
- Strength of opposing defenses
- Injury history and news
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Focus on quarterbacks with consistent performance history.
- Choose teams with pass-heavy offensive styles.
- Look at how tough the opponents’ defenses will be throughout the season.
- Keep an eye on offseason news, including team changes and player health.
Total season passing touchdowns over/under
With this NFL passing prop bet, you predict if a quarterback will throw more or fewer touchdowns than the sportsbook’s season total.
Sportsbooks pick a line based on past touchdown performance, offensive style, red-zone effectiveness, and other vital stats.
This prop is popular because touchdowns directly affect scoring and excitement. It ties your bet to high-energy, game-changing moments throughout the season.
Example: Josh Allen’s touchdown total is set at 32.5. You bet the under. He throws exactly 32 touchdowns over the season. You win your bet because he fell short of the sportsbook’s line.
Main bet influences:
- Quarterback red-zone efficiency
- Offensive scheme (run-heavy vs. pass-heavy teams)
- Wide receiver and tight end quality
- Historical touchdown performance
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Choose quarterbacks with reliable red-zone targets.
- Review the team’s past touchdown-to-field-goal ratio.
- Watch for offensive coordinator changes that might affect scoring strategy.
- Keep an eye on player health, especially pass-catching teammates.
Total season passing completions over/under
This wager focuses on the total number of completions a quarterback achieves during the season.
Sportsbooks predict a quarterback’s completions based on accuracy stats, team play calling patterns, and anticipated game situations.
This NFL passing prop is appealing because it emphasizes a quarterback’s accuracy and decision-making skills, keeping bettors invested.
Example: Justin Herbert’s completions total is set at 420.5. You take the over, and by the end of week 18, Herbert totals 425 completions. You win your bet because he went over the predicted number.
Main bet influences:
- Quarterback accuracy and completion percentage
- Offensive game plan and style
- Quality of receiving corps
- Level of opposing defenses
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Look at quarterbacks known for high accuracy and short-passing games.
- Evaluate teams’ offensive tendencies: are they conservative or aggressive?
- Consider the strength and reliability of the wide receiver group.
- Factor in the team’s overall strength of schedule.
Total season interceptions over/under
This prop focuses on how many interceptions a quarterback throws across a season.
The sportsbook sets a line based on historical interception rates, quarterback play style, and quality of opposing defenses.
Interception bets attract attention because they’re tied to mistakes and defensive plays. They offer a unique betting angle focused on a player’s downside.
Example: Dak Prescott’s interception line is 12.5. You wager the under, and by the end of the season, Prescott throws only 11 interceptions. Your bet is a win because he stayed under the line.
Main bet influences:
- Quarterback risk-taking tendencies
- Strength of opponents’ secondaries
- Offensive line quality (pressure leads to picks)
- Historical interception data
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Identify quarterbacks known for riskier throws or weaker protection.
- Target quarterbacks facing strong defensive backfields throughout the season.
- Consider coaching changes that influence risk tolerance.
Other, less popular, season-long NFL passing props
Some sportsbooks offer less common NFL passing props, like quarterback rushing yards or longest completion over/under. Others can get even stranger, like predicting if a quarterback will catch a touchdown pass themselves.
These props usually set a numeric line or a simple yes/no scenario, offering niche bets.
Their quirky nature makes these bets appealing to casual bettors looking for unique or entertaining wagering options. However, they’re less popular with experienced bettors who prefer consistency and predictability.
Example: A sportsbook offers a prop asking, “Will Lamar Jackson catch at least one touchdown pass this season?” You bet no, and Jackson doesn’t catch a single touchdown pass, meaning your bet wins.
Main bet influences:
- Play calling creativity (for novelty props)
- Quarterback athleticism and versatility
- Team circumstances (injuries, strategy shifts)
Tips for picking strong bets:
- Avoid overly niche bets unless you have inside knowledge or a strong insight.
- Novelty props can be fun, but rarely offer long-term betting value.
When are NFL passing prop bets released?
Sportsbooks release NFL passing props according to specific timelines, which can affect your betting strategy.
- Early line release schedules — Season-long passing props typically appear in the preseason. Single-game props come out early each game week, usually around Tuesday or Wednesday. Early lines can offer great value, especially before odds adjust due to betting volume and news.
- Adjustments based on team news — Sportsbooks update lines regularly throughout the week based on injury reports, practice participation, weather forecasts, and other information. Staying informed allows you to identify value opportunities when lines shift.
- Last-minute betting opportunities — Props continue adjusting up to kickoff. Last-minute injury announcements or lineup changes give quick-value opportunities for sharp bettors who stay attentive until game time.
Tips and strategies for betting on NFL passing props
Enhance your betting success with these practical strategies:
- Use statistical analysis and historical trends: Quickly assess quarterback performance history against specific opponents and under different conditions to spot betting opportunities.
- Line shop for best odds: Always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to maximize potential payouts.
- Research quarterback performance trends: Review recent quarterback performances, including consistency, accuracy, and matchup history.
- Effective bankroll management: Set a betting budget and stick to it, managing your bankroll wisely.
- Track in-game news and adjustments: Pay close attention to in-game announcements and last-minute lineup changes. This allows you to make timely wagers at optimal value.
- Interpret the betting action: Check betting line movements to understand where professional bettors place their money, as it shows potential betting value.
- React to injury reports and odds changes: Stay proactive by responding to injury updates and shifts in betting lines, as they often provide profitable opportunities.
Common mistakes to avoid when betting on NFL passing props
Successful NFL passing prop betting means you need to avoid common pitfalls. Here are some mistakes bettors frequently make.
Overreacting to in-game injuries or isolated news
Bettors often make hasty decisions based on minor injuries or isolated news without fully assessing the impact. One minor injury doesn’t always derail a quarterback’s overall performance, and quick reactions can lead to poor wagers.
Ignoring line movement and betting trends
Not paying attention to how odds shift can be costly. Line movements reflect professional betting action and critical information. Ignoring these signs might lead to missing crucial insights.
Misjudging matchup impacts on player performance
Many bettors underestimate the importance of specific matchups. Quarterbacks’ performances depend on opposing defenses, past matchup data, and individual strengths. Misjudging these factors can result in inaccurate betting assessments.
Live betting on NFL passing props
Live betting lets you wager on NFL passing props in real-time during games, adding an exciting layer to your betting strategy.
- How to choose which live passing props to bet on: Look for situations where a quarterback is playing better or worse than expected. Exploit rapid odds adjustments based on short-term game events.
- When to place live bets: Immediately after scoring drives, turnovers, during injury timeouts, or longer game stoppages.
- Risks and benefits of live betting: Fast-paced decisions can lead to impulsive bets, but real-time insights offer instant betting opportunities with potential value.
How to parlay NFL passing props
Same-game parlays allow you to combine multiple passing prop bets in one NFL game, boosting odds and potential returns. The risks include increased difficulty since all bets must win, but the rewards are higher potential payouts compared to single wagers.
Here are some strategies for successful parlays:
- Combine bets with similar outcomes (e.g., quarterback yards and completions).
- Limit your parlays to 2–4 bets for a higher probability of success.
- Consider matchup dynamics and avoid conflicting props in the same parlay.
How sportsbooks set and adjust NFL passing prop odds
Sportsbooks carefully establish and continually adjust NFL passing prop odds through a combination of analytics, expert insights, and betting activity.
Analyze player performance data and offensive schemes — Sportsbooks examine historical player stats, current-season performance, quarterback accuracy, and team offensive strategies to set initial lines. Reliable quarterbacks with high passing volume generally receive higher yardage and touchdown totals.
Consider defensive matchups and game conditions — Defensive strength, coverage effectiveness, and specific matchup histories influence odds. Weather forecasts and playing conditions also affect odds, especially for passing yards and completions.
Adjust lines based on expert analysis and media reports — Insights from sports analysts, injury updates from media sources, and insider reports can shift lines. Bookmakers react quickly to ensure odds accurately reflect evolving expectations.
Monitor betting action and line movement — Professional bettors heavily influence line adjustments. Lots of betting activity from informed bettors causes sportsbooks to reevaluate their odds quickly.
Update odds in real-time with breaking news and adjustments — Real-time adjustments are crucial. Sportsbooks continuously update odds based on breaking news like injuries, lineup changes, or in-game developments to keep accurate and appealing betting markets.
Resources for staying updated on passing props
Successful betting on NFL passing props requires the use of reliable resources for updated information:
- Sports websites like ESPN and NFL, betting platforms, sportsbook apps, and NFL experts’ social media accounts offer reliable updates.
- Resources like Pro Football Reference and specialized betting analysis platforms provide detailed player stats and predictive insights.
Pay attention to real-time injury updates, weather forecasts and playing conditions, betting trends and line movements.
How do you find and compare the best NFL passing prop bets?
A little research goes a long way when it comes to betting NFL passing props.
The key is to compare odds across multiple sportsbooks and analyze short-term data like player trends and matchup stats. Books adjust their lines throughout the week based on betting action and new information, so staying alert can bring real value.
Comparing NFL passing prop odds
No two sportsbooks are the same. Some might offer better value on passing yards, while others have sharper odds for touchdowns or interceptions.
Use odds comparison tools or manually check a few top sportsbooks to spot discrepancies. Even a small difference in odds can make a big impact over the season.
Tracking daily and weekly betting trends
Pay attention to how lines move as the week progresses. If a quarterback’s passing yard total climbs, sharp bettors often see an edge.
Following betting splits and public vs. sharp money trends can help you identify where the action is and whether you want to follow it.
Impact of injuries and weather on passing props
Injuries to quarterbacks, offensive linemen, or top receivers can change passing expectations.
The weather is just as important; heavy rain, strong winds, or extreme cold tend to favor the run game and limit passing efficiency. Clear conditions open the door for bigger passing performances. Always check injury and weather reports before placing bets.
Bet on NFL passing props with confidence
NFL passing props add a new layer of excitement and depth to football betting. They allow you to focus on the performance of specific quarterbacks rather than just team results.
Whether you’re placing season-long bets or wagering on live in-game markets, remember to track trends, check the news, and compare odds across sportsbooks for the best value.
With solid research, good timing, and careful bankroll management, passing props can be a fun and potentially profitable part of your NFL betting experience. Use what you’ve learned in this guide to make smarter, more confident bets all season long.
