These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
Overall, the model went 4-3 last week. The cumulative record is now 53-29-1 on the season. That’s a 65% hit rate across the first eight weeks of this 2022-23 campaign.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 9
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. Still, there are 11 picks this week, including notable spreads and totals you should be paying attention to.
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Jets +12.5 | vs. Bills | 97% |
| Bills-Jets | Under 47 | 97% |
| Colts-Patriots | Over 39.5 | 100% |
| Packers -3.5 | at Lions | 75% |
| Packers-Lions | Under 49.5 | 66% |
| Commanders +3.5 | vs. Vikings | 80% |
| Vikings-Commanders | Under 43.5 | 70% |
| Seahawks +2 | at Cardinals | 70% |
| Seahawks-Cardinals | Under 49.5 | 88% |
| Titans +12.5 | at Chiefs | 100% |
| Titans-Chiefs | Under 46.5 | 70% |
Insights For Week 9
You can view last week’s results by visiting the NFL Computer Picks article for Week 8. It’s worth noting that the model only had one 100% line value pick last week. There are two 100% bets for Week 9.
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 3-2 in Week 8. That threshold is now 26-19-1 on the season. These bets made the cut for Week 8:
- Jets +12.5 vs. Bills
- Bills-Jets Under 47
- Commanders +3.5 vs. Vikings
- Seahawks-Cardinals Under 49.5
One of these bets also made the cut in our NFL Parlay Picks for Week 9. That series is currently up 4.54 units on the season.
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 53-29-1
Spread: 29-13-1
Totals: 24-16
NFL Computer Picks: Previous Articles
You can browse previous editions of this article below: