These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
The model went 8-7 last week, putting the season record at 99-64-1 overall. That’s a solid 61% hit rate across the first 17 weeks of this 2022-23 campaign.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 18
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. There are twenty-three picks this week, including notable spreads and totals worth paying attention to:
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders +9.5 | vs. Chiefs | 85% |
| Chiefs-Raiders | Under 52 | 88% |
| Titans +6.5 | vs. Jaguars | 91% |
| Titans-Jaguars | Over 40 | 67% |
| Patriots +7 | at Bills | 100% |
| Patriots-Bills | Over 42.5 | 68% |
| Jets-Dolphins | Over 38.5 | 70% |
| Steelers -2.5 | vs. Browns | 74% |
| Ravens +7 | at Bengals | 94% |
| Texans-Colts | Over 38.5 | 100% |
| Bears +7.5 | vs. Vikings | 85% |
| Panthers-Saints | Over 42 | 79% |
| Bucs +4 | at Falcons | 67% |
| Bucs-Falcons | Over 40.5 | 67% |
| Chargers +2.5 | at Broncos | 65% |
| Chargers-Broncos | Over 40.5 | 97% |
| Giants +14 | at Eagles | 100% |
| Giants-Eagles | Over 43 | 71% |
| Commanders +7 | vs. Cowboys | 79% |
| Cowboys-Commanders | Over 41.5 | 73% |
| Cardinals +14.5 | at 49ers | 97% |
| Cardinals-49ers | Over 40.5 | 70% |
| Rams +6.5 | at Seahawks | 68% |
Insights For Week 18
You can view last week’s results by visiting the NFL Computer Picks article for Week 17. There are two picks with 100% in the similar matchup column for Week 18.
- Patriots +7 at Bills
- Texans-Colts Over 38.5
- Giants +14 at Eagles
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 5-3 in Week 17. That threshold is now 56-42-1 (55%) on the season. On top of the aforementioned 100% pick, these bets made the cut for Week 18:
- Raiders +9.5 vs. Chiefs
- Chiefs-Raiders Under 52
- Titans +6.5 vs. Jaguars
- Ravens +7 at Bengals
- Bears +7.5 vs. Vikings
- Chargers-Broncos Over 40.5
- Cardinals +14.5 at 49ers
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 99-64-1
Spread: 58-30-1
Totals: 41-34
NFL Computer Picks: Previous Articles
You can browse previous editions of this article below:
- Week 17: Record 8-7
- Week 16: Record 1-2
- Week 15: Record 7-6
- Week 14: Record 7-5
- Week 13: Record 5-4
- Week 12: Record 1-2
- Week 11: Record 3-5
- Week 10: Record 5-1
- Week 9: Record 8-3
- Week 8: Record 4-3
- Week 7: Record 2-3
- Week 6: Record 6-3
- Week 5: Record 9-3-1
- Week 4: Record 3-5
- Week 3: Record 16-4
- Week 2: Record 7-6
- Week 1: Record 6-2