These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
Overall, the model went 5-1 last week. The cumulative record is now 66-33-1 on the season. That’s a 67% hit rate across the first ten weeks of this 2022-23 campaign.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 11
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. There are nine picks this week, including notable spreads and totals worth paying attention to.
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots -3 | vs. Jets | 91% |
| Jets-Patriots | Over 38.5 | 91% |
| Rams-Saints | Over 38.5 | 100% |
| Broncos -2.5 | vs. Raiders | 73% |
| Raiders-Broncos | Over 41.5 | 67% |
| Steelers +4.5 | vs. Bengals | 91% |
| Chargers +6.5 | vs. Chiefs | 88% |
| Chiefs-Chargers | Under 50 | 85% |
| Cardinals +8 | vs. 49ers | 84% |
Insights For Week 11
You can view last week’s results by visiting the NFL Computer Picks article for Week 10. It’s worth noting that the model had one 100% line value pick last week, and it (Commanders +11) ended up a winner. There is one pick with 100% in the similar matchup column for Week 11:
- Rams-Saints Over 38.5
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 3-1 in Week 10. That threshold is now 33-22-1 (60%) on the season. On top of the aforementioned 100% pick, these bets made the cut for Week 11:
- Patriots -3 vs. Jets
- Jets-Patriots Over 38.5
- Steelers +4.5 vs. Bengals
- Chargers +6.5 vs. Chiefs
- Chiefs-Charger Under 50
- Cardinals +8 vs. 49ers
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 66-33-1
Spread: 37-14-1
Totals: 29-19
NFL Computer Picks: Previous Articles
You can browse previous editions of this article below: