With training camps set to open soon, Props.com offers a breakdown of the league’s 30 teams from an NBA season win total perspective. After previewing the Atlantic Division and Central Division last week, we wrap up our look at the Eastern Conference by shining a spotlight on the Southeast Division.
Unlike last season, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced the league to reduce the regular season to 72 games, the NBA returns to an 82-game schedule in 2021-22.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Sept. 17.
Miami Heat
Projected Win Total: 48.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 40-32 (2nd in Southeast)
Projected Starters: Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, P.J. Tucker
— Based on win-total projections, the Heat enter the 2021-22 season as the favorite to claim the Southeast Division title. However, at 48.5 wins, Miami is tied (with Dallas in the Southwest) for the lowest expectations of any projected division champ.
— The Heat last year were solid against Eastern Conference opponents (24-18), at home (21-15), and on the road (19-17). The only negative: They went 0-4 in overtime games. And while Miami had five separate winning streaks of four games or more, it had two losing skids of five-plus games.
— The Heat had a top-five defense last season, allowing only 108 points per game. The club also ranked sixth in field-goal percentage defense and fourth in offensive rebounds.
— Miami has an interesting early-season scheduling quirk: From Nov. 8-15, the club embarks on a five-game trip out West to Denver, Los Angeles (Lakers and Clippers), Utah, and Oklahoma City. After coming home for a back-to-back against the Pelicans and Wizards, the Heat pack their bags again for a four-game journey to Washington, Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago.
— You have to go back to the 2013-14 season—the final one of the LeBron/Wade/Bosh era—for the last time Miami cleared this win total projection (54-28). In the last four NBA seasons with a full 82-game schedule (2015-19), the Heat averaged 43 victories.
Atlanta Hawks
Projected Win Total: 46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
2020-21 Record: 41-31 (1st in Southeast)
Projected Starters: Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter
— Atlanta was one of the NBA’s surprise teams of 2020-21, capturing the Southeast Division after three consecutive last-place finishes. And thanks in large part to the spectacular play of point guard Trae Young (25.3 points, 9.4 assists, 0.8 steals per game), the Hawks made it to the Eastern Conference finals for just the second time since the franchise relocated from St. Louis to Atlanta in 1968.
— Even with Young rolling last season (he missed nine games), the Hawks still finished below average in scoring offense (tied for 11th, 113.7 points per contest), three-pointers made (17th overall), field-goal percentage (17th) and assists (19th).
— The Hawks actually started 13-18 last season before closing on a 28-13 run, winning 16 of those 28 games by double digits. Atlanta went 9-3 against Southeast foes, 25-11 at home and 24-18 versus Eastern Conference opponents, but just 16-20 on the road.
— It’s rare for a club with 50-victory potential to be underdogs as many as 10 times during an 11-game stretch, but Atlanta could be staring at just that situation early in the 2021-22 campaign. From Oct. 27-Nov. 14, the Hawks travel to New Orleans, Washington, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Phoenix, Golden State, Utah, and Denver, while hosting the Wizards, Jazz, and defending-champion Milwaukee Bucks.
— In an 82-game season, the Hawks have exceeded this year’s win-projection of 46.5 just twice in the last decade (doing it in 2014-15 and 2015-16).
Charlotte Hornets
Projected Win Total: 38.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 33-39 (4th in Southeast), 0-1 in Eastern Conference play-in game
Projected Starters: LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington, Mason Plumlee
— If the oddsmakers are to be believed, the Hornets are headed for their sixth consecutive sub.-500 season. In fact, Charlotte has cracked the 38-win barrier just four times since returning to the NBA as the Charlotte Bobcats in 2004-05.
— The Hornets took care of business against Southeast Division opponents last season, going 8-4 (including 4-2 against the Hawks and Heat). However, Charlotte was a .500 team on its home floor (18-18) and was among four Southeast teams to post a losing road mark (15-21).
— Charlotte ranked just 23rd in scoring last season (109.5 ppg) and 22nd in field-goal percentage. On the bright side, rookie LaMelo Ball’s impact was instantly felt in other vital categories, with the Hornets ranking fifth in assists (26.8 per game) and 10th in three-pointers made (13.7 per contest).
— The Hornets’ toughest stretch in 2021-22? From Dec. 13-23, they embark on a five-game Western Conference road trip to Dallas, San Antonio, Portland, Phoenix, and Utah. After Christmas, Charlotte tackles an eight-game stretch that includes games against the Pacers (road), Suns (home), Bucks (two games at home in three nights), and 76ers (road).
Washington Wizards
Projected Win Total: 33.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
2020-21 Record: 34-38 (3rd in Southeast), plus 1-1 in play-in games
Projected Starters: Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma, Rui Hachimura, Daniel Gafford
— The Wizards’ offseason featured two big moves: hiring head coach Wes Unseld Jr. and trading triple-double machine Russell Westbrook to the Los Angeles Lakers. Washington’s revamped rotation now includes Beal, Dinwiddie, Kuzma, Hachimura, Gafford, Montrezl Harrell, Davis Bertans, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Deni Avdija and sharpshooting rookie Corey Kispert (Gonzaga).
— Led by Westbrook (22.2 points, 11.5 rebounds, 11.7 assists per game) and Beal (31.3 points per contest), the Wizards were the NBA’s third-highest scoring team last season, averaging 116.6 points per game. Washington ranked 10th overall in field-goal percentage, shooting at a 47.5-percent clip.
— The up-tempo Wizards failed to crack the 100-point mark just six times last season, but also only held three opponents under triple digits. They also struggled mightily against the division’s top teams, going 2-7 against the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets.
— The 2021-22 NBA schedule-makers gave the Wizards a break, with only 10 back-to-back situations all season. Also, Washington’s most treacherous stretch comes relatively early: From Dec. 5-28, the Wizards play 10 of 12 games on the road (at Toronto, Indiana, Detroit, Denver, Sacramento, Phoenix, Utah, Brooklyn, New York and Miami). The two home outings come against the Jazz and Sixers, who finished last season with the top records in the West and East, respectively.
— The Wizards finished with 41 or more victories in five straight seasons from 2013-14 to 2017-18. Prior to that, though, Washington posted fewer than 30 wins in five consecutive campaigns.
Orlando Magic
Projected Win Total: 22.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
2020-21 Record: 21-51 (5th in Southeast)
Projected Starters: Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Chuma Okeke, Wendell Carter Jr.
— If the oddsmakers are correct in their projections, the Magic will be battling it out with the Thunder for the NBA’s worst record this season. It would be a familiar position for Orlando, which has won 29 games or fewer in five of the last eight seasons (not including last year’s 72-game slate).
— The Magic had the league’s second-worst offense last season (just ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers), averaging only 104 points per game. Orlando also ranked 26th in three-pointers made, 28th in assists, and dead last in field-goal percentage.
— Orlando came out on fire last season, winning its first four games by an average of 8.5 points. After that, it was all downhill for the Magic, whose dearth of talent, versatility, and depth was most evident during separate losing streaks of six, six, seven, and nine games.
— Two-thirds of Orlando’s defeats last season (34 of 51) were double-digit routs. Things were especially ugly down the stretch, as the Magic’s final 12 setbacks were by an average of 20.6 points.
— Orlando has an interesting scheduling quirk this season, with two separate five-game road trips. Here’s the quirk: During each trip, the Magic only visit four cities. The first road voyage (Nov. 15-22) includes back-to-back games in Milwaukee; the second trip (Dec. 3-12) ends with back-to-back games against the Lakers (Dec. 11) and Clippers (Dec. 12) at Staples Center in Los Angeles.
— As bad as they have been in recent years, the Magic have failed to clear this particular win total in an 82-game season just once since 2004-05 (they went 20-62 in 2012-13).
