Monday Night Football Props – Wild Card Round NFL Picks

We’re locked into finding your best Monday Night Football player props every week of the NFL season.

Props.com analyst Justin Bales will break down two picks from the top daily fantasy sites for maximum value each time Monday Night Football rolls around.

Monday night caps off the NFL weekend with a final chance to win big! Bettors react to Sunday’s results and bookmakers adjust the lines accordingly, creating unique MNF prop opportunities. On top of our expert picks, we’ll guide you through spotting the sweet spots, timing your wagers, and hopefully ending your week in the green.

Monday Night Football Props: Wild Card Round

Justin Bales breaks down his best Monday Night Football picks below. Remember that projections can change quickly on some of these DFS pick’em sites, so there’s a chance not all of these numbers are available.

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Matthew Stafford More Than 239.5 Passing Yards

Stafford enjoyed another solid season for the Los Angeles Rams. He threw for 3,762 yards with 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions across 16 games. He posted 240+ passing yards in 8 of those 16 games.

This play is entirely about the matchup, though. Stafford will face off against the Minnesota Vikings, who have struggled against the pass. They’re allowing the fourth-most passing yards (261.5) per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Stafford faced off against Minnesota in Week 8. He posted 279 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception on 34 attempts. It was his third-best game of the season based on yards per pass attempt (8.2).

The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs in this game. They’re going to throw throughout the entire game, which wasn’t truly the case for Stafford in their first matchup. The Rams won that game by 10 points, with Kyren Williams seeing 23 carries.

Stafford still has two dominant receivers in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The Vikings don’t have the secondary to slow this passing attack down, and Stafford boasts the potential to throw for 300+ yards in this game.

Where to play: Matthew Stafford more than 239.5 passing yards | PrizePicks

Sam Darnold More Than 267.5 Passing Yards

Darnold is in the midst of one of the best “comeback” seasons in recent memory. He’s thrown for 4,319 yards with 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions across 17 games. He’s also recorded 300+ passing yards in 3 of his last 7 games.

Similar to Stafford, this is an elite matchup for Darnold. He’ll face off against the Los Angeles Rams. They’re allowing the ninth-most passing yards (241.2) per game to opposing quarterbacks. More importantly, the Rams are giving up 11.5 yards per completion this season.

Darnold looked elite in a loss to Los Angeles in Week 8. He only needed 25 pass attempts to throw for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns. Oddly enough, the Minnesota Vikings lost that game, so they may be willing to rely more on their passing attack this weekend.

The Rams don’t have the secondary to slow down Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison. This game is expected to stay close throughout, and both of these teams should be throwing for four quarters.

This isn’t as high as a total as one would expect, and that may be because Darnold fell on his face against the Detroit Lions in a huge game last week. That doesn’t matter for this week, though, and both of these teams should find plenty of success with their passing games.

Where to play: Sam Darnold more than 267.5 passing yards | 1.74x at Sleeper

Looking for more Wildcard Weekend analysis? Check out all of our Wildcard Weekend content linked below.

• Wildcard Weekend: Content Hub
• Wildcard Weekend: Top Player Props
• Wildcard Weekend: First TD Props
• Wildcard Weekend: Anytime TD Props
• Wildcard Weekend: Last TD Props

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Where can you place Monday night football prop bets?

Prop betting on Monday night football offers an exhilarating conclusion to the NFL weekend with diverse wagering options. As one of the most-watched broadcasts in sports, MNF attracts substantial betting attention with numerous platforms offering specialized prop markets for these primetime matchups.

Legal sportsbooks for MNF props

Legal sportsbooks feature comprehensive MNF prop selections, often with special promotions designed specifically for these high-profile games. These platforms provide the widest variety of betting options with competitive odds.

Top legal sportsbooks for MNF props include:

• DraftKings stands out with a vast array of player prop bets and dynamic Same Game Parlay options.
• FanDuel shines with consistently strong odds and an exceptionally easy-to-navigate interface.
• BetMGM is a proud NFL partner and features exclusive prop selections and attractive new-user bonuses.
• Caesars excels with enticing prop odds and frequent specials tailored to Thursday Night Football.

DFS Pick’em apps for MNF props

Daily fantasy sports pick’em platforms offer engaging alternatives to traditional MNF prop betting. It focuses on player performance predictions in contest formats that blend skill and chance. These apps are accessible in more states than conventional sportsbooks.

Popular DFS pick’em options for Monday night football include:

• Underdog Fantasy offers addictive “over/under” player-stat showdowns.
• Boom Fantasy features MNF-only contest pools with adjustable entry levels.
• DraftKings Reignmakers merges NFT-style collectibles with prop bet–inspired forecasting.

What are the most common MNF prop bet types, odds, and win conditions?

Monday night football prop bets provide the perfect finale to the NFL weekend with specialized wagering markets beyond traditional game outcomes. These unique betting options focus on specific events within the game rather than just who wins or covers the spread. We’ll look at the most popular MNF prop markets below, showing you how to understand the odds and what makes for a winning wager in each category.

Player props

• Completion percentage – Bet on what percentage of passes a quarterback will complete during the game. Typically as an over/under (eg, over 67.5%). You win if the QB’s completion rate matches your prediction.
• Rushing attempts – Wager on how many times a running back will carry the ball. Presented as an over/under (eg, over 18.5 attempts). You win when the final carry count aligns with your selection of over or under the established number.
• Receiving targets – Predict how many times a receiver will be thrown during the game. Set as an over/under (eg, under 7.5 targets). You win if the player’s target count exceeds or falls short of your prediction.
• Player total touchdowns – Bet on the exact number of touchdowns a player will score. Offered with different odds for each outcome (eg, +200 for exactly 2 TDs). You win if your selected player scores precisely the number of touchdowns you wagered on.
• Yards per carry – Wager on a running back’s efficiency rather than total production. Presented as an over/under (eg, over 4.8 yards per carry). You win if the player’s average matches your prediction, regardless of total carries.
• First reception – Bet on which player will record the game’s first catch. Listed with moneyline odds for eligible receivers (eg, +650 for a tight end). You win if your chosen player makes the first reception of the game.

Team/game props

• halftime/fulltime result – Predict both the halftime leader and final winner. Offered as combination bets with various outcomes (eg, Team A leads at half/Team B wins game at +550). You win only if both predictions are correct.
• Race to 15 points – Wager on which team will reach 15 points first. Presented with moneyline odds for each team or “neither” option. You win if your prediction is the first to hit the point threshold or if neither team does.
• Total field goals – Bet on how many successful field goals will be kicked in the game. Set as an over/under (eg, over 3.5 field goals). You win if the combined successful field goals match your over/under prediction.
• Team first downs – Predict how many first downs a specific team will achieve. Offered as an over/under (eg, under 21.5 first downs). You win when the team’s final first down total aligns with your selection of over or under the line.

What other Monday night football props exist?

Monday night football offers unique prop bets beyond standard player and team markets. We’ll find out more about defensive touchdowns, kicking milestones, and crowd-related wagers unique to Monday broadcasts. These niche MNF markets can deliver exceptional value when you understand primetime game dynamics.

Player props

• Total Quarterback rushing attempts –  Bet on how many times a quarterback will run the ball, including designed runs and scrambles. Offered as an over/under (eg, over 7.5 attempts). You win if the quarterback’s rushing attempt total aligns with your prediction.
• Player to record a safety – Predict whether any defensive player will score a safety. Listed with high moneyline odds (eg, +2000) reflecting the event’s rarity. You win if any player records a safety during the game.

Team/game props

• First team to commit a turnover – Wager on which team will first lose possession via interception or fumble. Presented as a three-way moneyline including a “neither team” option. You win if your selection matches the game’s turnover sequence.
• First penalty type – Wager on the specific category of the game’s first accepted penalty. Presented with varying odds for common infractions like false start, holding, or pass interference. You win if the penalty matches your selection.
• Overtime occurrence – Bet on whether the game will extend beyond regulation time. Offered as a yes/no proposition with odds (eg, yes +650). You win if the game requires overtime to determine a winner.
• Coach’s challenge result – Predict the outcome of the first coach’s challenge in the game. Listed with odds for successful or unsuccessful challenge results. You win if the initial challenge outcome matches your selection.

What factors make Monday night football unique for prop bettors?

The final game of the NFL week creates a distinctive betting environment unlike any other matchup. As the closing contest, prop bettors get complete roster clarity and refined odds shaped by a full week of market activity. Sportsbooks offer better promotions for this primetime showcase, while many fans use this last opportunity to chase weekend losses or hedge existing positions. These factors combine to create a different market landscape with unique betting challenges and opportunities that require specialized strategies.

Below, we’ll detail each of these distinctive MNF factors.

How do props reflect the final betting volume of the week?

The final NFL game of the week benefits from the most comprehensive betting data. By kickoff, these lines have experienced sharp money, public action, and multiple oddsmaker adjustments.

This creates both challenges and opportunities. MNF prop markets are heavily influenced by recreational bettors, who often favor overs on popular players due to media narratives and public sentiment. This tendency can inflate lines, creating value opportunities on unders and less prominent props for bettors who base their strategies on performance rather than public perception.

How does injury and roster clarity affect prop betting?

The week’s final game provides unparalleled roster transparency. Unlike Thursday contests with fluid designations, teams have completed a full practice week with comprehensive injury reports, walkthroughs, and clear game-status updates.

This clarity offers significant advantages. By Monday evening, the football world knows precisely which players are active, their health status, and expected roles. Full practice reports lead to better lineup clarity than earlier games, making personnel deployment and snap count projections more reliable for informed decision-making.

Why are promotional boosts increased for MNF props?

MNF creates intense competition among sportsbooks seeking maximum engagement before the week concludes. Operators frequently deploy MNF-specific odds boosts, parlay insurance, and “no-brainer” promotions targeting the standalone game.

This promotional landscape generates unique value opportunities unavailable during Sunday’s packed slate. The aggressive marketing push reflects operators’ desire to capture attention on a night with fewer viewing options. This creates a more competitive environment that can benefit those who compare offerings across multiple platforms.

How does public and book focus affect star player props?

Primetime broadcasts naturally emphasize QB storylines and star performers, significantly influencing market dynamics. Sportsbooks anticipate heavy action on recognizable names featured prominently in pre-game coverage, often adjusting lines based on expected betting patterns rather than statistical projections.

This star-focused environment creates interesting market inefficiencies. While casual bettors gravitate toward QB and WR1 props, secondary markets like running back committees, tight end targets, and defensive player props typically receive less attention. The spotlight effect often results in inflated lines for headline performers while complementary players remain more accurately priced.

How does the final game act as a hedge or chase opportunity?

The week’s concluding game often becomes a psychological inflection point for football enthusiasts. This final opportunity creates distinct wagering behaviors. Some chase weekend losses aggressively, while others hedge open parlays or season-long positions.

The emotional motivations significantly impact market dynamics. The standalone nature of the broadcast amplifies these tendencies, as bettors face their last chance to either recover or capitalize on the week’s results. Experienced bettors recognize this phenomenon and establish predetermined limits before weekend outcomes are known, treating the game as an independent event rather than viewing it through the emotional lens of recent results.

What are the best timing and bankroll strategies for MNF props?

Monday night football props demand strategic timing, diligent odds shopping, and disciplined bankroll management. The standalone nature of the season’s final weekly game creates unique challenges where emotional decisions become particularly tempting after a weekend of results.

Let’s examine the five key strategies that can transform your Monday night approach and help you capitalize on these distinctive market conditions.

When are MNF props released?

These prop markets follow a distinct timeline compared to other NFL games. Most major sportsbooks begin posting basic props on Sunday evening, starting with quarterback passing yards and primary skill position totals.

Early-week options focus on players with clearly defined roles who are expected to play regardless of minor injuries. More specialized markets like TD scorers or props involving questionable players typically appear later, sometimes not until Monday morning after final practice reports. Release schedules vary by operator, with some posting earlier than others, creating opportunities for those monitoring multiple platforms.

How can you avoid chasing after a bad Sunday?

The final game creates a psychological danger zone for those coming off disappointing weekend results. The temptation to view it as a “recovery opportunity” rather than an independent event leads many to abandon discipline and make emotional wagers.

Combat this tendency by establishing firm limits before knowing your Sunday outcomes. Allocate a fixed percentage of your weekly bankroll to the Monday game, regardless of weekend performance. Recognize warning signs like increasing bet sizes or pursuing longshot props with poor odds. Preserving capital through disciplined restraint often represents the most profitable long-term approach.

When are the best times to bet MNF props for value?

Timing represents the most critical element for MNF success, requiring a balance between capturing early value and waiting for information clarity. The optimal strategy varies by prop type and your tolerance for uncertainty.

Sunday evening often offers value on stable markets before significant public money arrives. Target props involving players with clearly defined roles that aren’t dependent on late injury news. Monday afternoon provides maximum information clarity once inactive reports become official, working best for props involving questionable players or backup roles that might expand. Combine these approaches based on prop type for optimal results.

How can you leverage promotional offers effectively?

MNF attracts substantial promotional attention from sportsbooks seeking maximum engagement. When approached strategically, these offers can significantly boost expected value, but they require evaluation.

Focus on promotions providing a genuine mathematical advantage rather than marketing gimmicks. True odds boosts that improve payout rates deliver clear value, while same-game parlay insurance can effectively reduce variance. Never increase your planned exposure to qualify for promotional offers. Stick to predetermined unit sizes even when tempted by “free bet” incentives.

Why consider betting low-variance props to close the week?

The final NFL betting opportunity until Thursday can tempt investors to pursue volatile, high-payout options. However, a more sustainable approach focuses on low-variance markets that offer steady performance and manageable risk profiles.

Consider targeting props with high touch volumes and predictable usage patterns. The primary options are QB completions, established running back carries, or receiver targets. These markets typically have narrower outcome ranges than touchdown scorers or big-play propositions, providing more consistent results over time while reducing the emotional swings that can impact decision-making on future slates.

Close your betting week with disciplined, measured plays rather than emotional darts at longshot outcomes. Ending with calm, calculated decisions regardless of outcome positions you better for the following week than chasing one final thrill with questionable expected value.

What are some common mistakes to avoid when betting MNF props?

Monday night football attracts enormous public betting volume after a full weekend of NFL results. Recreational bettors often make emotional wagers based on recent performances and primetime excitement. Sportsbooks anticipate these tendencies and adjust prop lines accordingly, creating both challenges and opportunities for strategic bettors.

• Overreacting to Sunday results – Weekend losses often increase MNF betting volume as players chase losses, leading to poor bankroll decisions. Establish limits for Monday before knowing Sunday’s outcomes and maintain consistent unit sizes regardless of weekend performance.
• Ignoring line movement from weekend results – MNF props shift significantly based on how similar player propositions performed on Sunday, creating value in contrarian positions. Track whether quarterback, receiver, or rushing props consistently went over/under during weekend games to identify potential market overreactions.
• Overlooking travel disadvantages—Teams playing outside their home time zone show measurable performance declines that affect prop markets. When evaluating player prop expectations, factor in travel distance, direction (east/west), and time zone changes.
• Betting based on broadcast narratives – Pre-game shows heavily influence public perception, creating inflated lines on storyline-driven props. Focus on analytical factors that influence performance rather than narrative elements emphasized for entertainment.
• Trusting same-game parlays blindly – Multiple-leg parlays for Monday games appear attractive, but often contain components with negative expected value. Evaluate each prop within a parlay independently, ensuring every component offers standalone value before combining them.

Conclusion

Monday night football prop betting requires balancing technical analysis with psychological discipline as the NFL week concludes. The standalone nature creates both promotional opportunities and emotional pitfalls for bettors coming off weekend results.

Success comes from maintaining consistent unit sizing regardless of Sunday outcomes, leveraging genuine promotional value without overextension, and focusing on reliable volume projections. The disciplined approach treats each opportunity with fresh analysis rather than viewing it through the emotional lens of weekend results.