We’re locked in to finding your best Monday Night Football player props every week of the NFL season.
Props.com analyst Justin Bales will break down two picks from the top daily fantasy sites for max value every time Monday Night Football rolls around.
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Monday Night Football Props: Week 12 NFL Picks
Check back on 11/24 for an updated slate of props. In the meantime, feel free to read through last week’s content below.
Monday Night Football Props: Week 11 NFL Picks
Justin Bales breaks down his best Monday Night Football picks below. Remember that projections can change quickly on some of these DFS pick’em sites, so there’s a chance not all of these numbers are available.
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Joe Mixon Higher Than 85.5 Rushing Yards
Mixon has been enjoying an outstanding season for the Houston Texans. He owns 655 yards and 7 touchdowns on 151 carries through seven games. He’s posted 100+ yards in five of those seven games.
Mixon recorded only 46 yards on 25 carries against the Detroit Lions last week. It’s his first fully healthy game where he recorded under 100 rushing yards. He’s also seen 24+ carries in five of his six healthy games this season.
Mixon gets a solid matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this week. They’re allowing the ninth-most rushing yards (111.1) per game to opposing running backs. The Cowboys are also allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs this season.
The Texans have shown that they’re willing to ride Mixon as much as necessary in any given game. He should find ~25 carries for the fifth consecutive game, as Houston is a sizeable favorite with Dallas’ lack of a solid quarterback.
If the Texans get out to a big lead, we could see four quarters of touches for Mixon. His total is a bit low for his potential workload, especially in a plus matchup against this Dallas defense.
Where to play: Joe Mixon higher than 85.5 rushing yards | Underdog
Jake Ferguson Less Than 36.5 Receiving Yards (1.84x)
Ferguson’s seen mixed results for the Dallas Cowboys throughout the 2024 season. He’s posted 42 receptions for 358 yards on 54 targets through eight games. He’s recorded 70+ yards in three contests while posting fewer than 25 yards in four games.
The Cowboys’ offense has taken a step back with the injury to Dak Prescott. Cooper Rush drew the start in Dallas’ last game, throwing for 45 yards before being benched for Trey Lance. The latter recorded only 21 yards, totaling 66 passing yards between the duo.
I’m not necessarily expecting as bad of a game for Dallas, but they get a terrible matchup against the Houston Texans. Houston is allowing a league-low 24.7 receiving yards to opposing tight ends. They’re also holding them to only 2.7 receptions on 5.1 targets.
Ferguson caught all four of his targets last week for only 24 yards. He posted an absurdly low 0.5 aDOT on those targets. Nearly all of his yards came after the catch, and that isn’t likely to be available against Houston.
The Cowboys are expected to rely a bit more on Rico Dowdle for as long as they can keep the game close, which could limit Ferguson’s opportunities. I’m not expecting an explosive offense from Dallas this week, and the Cowboys’ star tight end is in the worst spot of any player on their offense.
Where to play: Jake Ferguson less than 36.5 receiving yards | 1.84x at Sleeper Fantasy
Looking for more Week 10 analysis? Check out all of our Week 11 content linked below.