We’re locked into finding your best Monday Night Football player props every week of the NFL season.
Props.com analyst Josh Shepardson will break down two picks from the top daily fantasy sites for maximum value each time Monday Night Football rolls around.
Monday night caps off the NFL weekend with a final chance to win big! On top of our MNF expert picks, we’ll guide you through spotting the sweet spots, timing your plays, and hopefully ending your week in the green.
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Monday Night Football Props: Week 1
The Props crew breaks down our best Monday Night Football picks below. Remember that projections can change quickly on some of these DFS pick’em sites, so there’s a chance not all of these numbers are available.
Caleb Williams LOWER Than 219.5 Passing Yards
Caleb Williams had a forgettable rookie season after tons of hype accompanied the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner to the NFL. The Bears made him the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, and many folks expected immediate success, but it didn’t come to fruition.
Instead, per Pro Football Reference, Williams was 22nd in passing yards per game (208.3), 31st in adjusted net passing yards per attempt (5.09 ANY/A), 24th in Quarterback Rating (88.1), and 31st in QBR (43.3) among 36 qualified quarterbacks. Williams’ underwhelming passing yardage was all the more discouraging since he was seventh in pass attempts (562).
Pro Football Focus (PFF) was also unimpressed with Williams, ranking him 29th in their passing grade among 32 quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks in 2024.
The Bears hope offensive whiz Ben Johnson will get the most out of Williams as the organization’s new head coach. However, the vibes aren’t particularly good surrounding Williams after Tyler Dunne released an unflattering piece with quotes from former coaches on Chicago’s staff last year, who spoke poorly of Williams’ attitude and work ethic.
Vibes aside, Williams exceeded 219.5 passing yards only seven times in 17 starts last season, with a median of 191. He had a whopping 340 passing yards against the Vikings in an overtime loss to Minnesota in Week 12, but followed that up with only 191 in Week 15.
Williams might not get off to a fast start in his first regular-season game in Johnson’s offense. Moreover, Johnson might attempt to replicate the balanced offense he employed with the Lions.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Lions had just a 54% situation-neutral pass rate from 2023 through 2024. The Bears had a 56% situation-neutral pass rate last year, and they were frequently forced to air it out in negative game scripts.
Fewer passing attempts in Johnson’s offense would make it difficult for Williams to surpass 219.5 passing yards against the Vikings after doing so in just seven of 17 starts last season.
Where to play: Caleb Williams LOWER Than 219.5 Passing Yards | Underdog
J.J. McCarthy HIGHER Than 16.5 Rushing Yards
J.J. McCarthy is making his first regular-season start after missing his entire rookie season while recovering from surgery for a torn meniscus in his knee.
According to PFF, McCarthy played 30 preseason snaps in 2024. He dropped back to pass 19 times. He didn’t have any designed runs, but he turned two scrambles into 18 rushing yards.
McCarthy played only 12 snaps this preseason. He dropped back eight times. Once again, Kevin O’Connell (KOC) justifiably didn’t put his young franchise quarterback in harm’s way with any designed runs. Yet, McCarthy assuaged some concerns about his mobility post-knee surgery by turning one scramble into eight rushing yards.
The QB was a viable rushing weapon at Michigan. Per PFF, McCarthy had 25 rushes for 152 yards (6.1 yards per carry) in 2021, 67 for 402 (6.0 yards per carry) in 2022, and 57 for 340 (6.0 yards per carry) in 2023.
McCarthy bested 16.5 rushing yards in eight of 15 starts in 2023 after doing so in nine of 14 games in 2022. McCarthy can use his legs to pick up yardage. He might get many opportunities to show off his wheels in Week 1.
First, KOC has had pass-heavy offenses in his three seasons (2022-2024) as Minnesota’s head coach. According to Sumer Sports, the Vikings had the fifth-highest Pass Rate Over Expectation (2.67%) in 2022, the sixth-highest PROE (2.45%) in 2023, and the third-highest PROE (3.89%) in 2024. McCarthy will also likely see man coverage at a high rate.
Dennis Allen is Chicago’s new defensive coordinator. Allen was the head coach of the Saints from 2022 through the first nine games of 2024.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Saints had the ninth-highest man-coverage rate (32.9%) through Week 9 in 2024, the fifth-highest man-coverage rate (32.2%) in 2023, and the eighth-highest man-coverage rate (29.7%) in 2022. If they play man coverage without a spy for McCarthy, he’ll have opportunities to scamper for yardage if he breaks contain while linebackers and defensive backs have their backs to him while in coverage.
As a result, I expect McCarthy to surpass 16.5 rushing yards on Monday Night Football.
Where to play: J.J. McCarthy HIGHER Than 16.5 Rushing Yards | Underdog
Where can you place Monday night football prop bets?
Prop betting on Monday night football offers an exhilarating conclusion to the NFL weekend with diverse wagering options. As one of the most-watched broadcasts in sports, MNF attracts substantial betting attention with numerous platforms offering specialized prop markets for these primetime matchups.
Legal sportsbooks for MNF props
Legal sportsbooks feature comprehensive MNF prop selections, often with special promotions designed specifically for these high-profile games. These platforms provide the widest variety of betting options with competitive odds.
Top legal sportsbooks for MNF props include:
- DraftKings stands out with a vast array of player prop bets and dynamic Same Game Parlay options.
- FanDuel shines with consistently strong odds and an exceptionally easy-to-navigate interface.
- BetMGM is a proud NFL partner and features exclusive prop selections and attractive new-user bonuses.
- Caesars excels with enticing prop odds and frequent specials tailored to Monday Night Football.
DFS Pick’em apps for MNF props
Daily fantasy sports pick’em platforms offer engaging alternatives to traditional MNF prop betting. It focuses on player performance predictions in contest formats that blend skill and chance. These apps are accessible in more states than conventional sportsbooks.
Popular DFS pick’em options for Monday Night Football include:
What are the most common MNF prop bet types, odds, and win conditions?
Monday night football prop bets provide the perfect finale to the NFL weekend with specialized wagering markets beyond traditional game outcomes. These unique betting options focus on specific events within the game rather than just who wins or covers the spread. We’ll look at the most popular MNF prop markets below, showing you how to understand the odds and what makes for a winning wager in each category.
Player props
- All of the most popular yardage (passing, rushing, receiving) props, on top of anytime and first touchdown picks.
- Completion percentage – Bet on what percentage of passes a quarterback will complete during the game. Typically as an over/under (eg, over 67.5%). You win if the QB’s completion rate matches your prediction.
- Rushing attempts – Wager on how many times a running back will carry the ball. Presented as an over/under (eg, over 18.5 attempts). You win when the final carry count aligns with your selection of over or under the established number.
- Receiving targets – Predict how many times a receiver will be thrown during the game. Set as an over/under (eg, under 7.5 targets). You win if the player’s target count exceeds or falls short of your prediction.
- Player total touchdowns – Bet on the exact number of touchdowns a player will score. Offered with different odds for each outcome (eg, +200 for exactly 2 TDs). You win if your selected player scores precisely the number of touchdowns you wagered on.
- Yards per carry – Wager on a running back’s efficiency rather than total production. Presented as an over/under (eg, over 4.8 yards per carry). You win if the player’s average matches your prediction, regardless of total carries.
- First reception – Bet on which player will record the game’s first catch. Listed with moneyline odds for eligible receivers (eg, +650 for a tight end). You win if your chosen player makes the first reception of the game.
Team/game props
- Halftime/fulltime result – Predict both the halftime leader and final winner. Offered as combination bets with various outcomes (eg, Team A leads at half/Team B wins game at +550). You win only if both predictions are correct.
- Race to 15 points – Wager on which team will reach 15 points first. Presented with moneyline odds for each team or “neither” option. You win if your prediction is the first to hit the point threshold or if neither team does.
- Total field goals – Bet on how many successful field goals will be kicked in the game. Set as an over/under (eg, over 3.5 field goals). You win if the combined successful field goals match your over/under prediction.
- Team first downs – Predict how many first downs a specific team will achieve. Offered as an over/under (eg, under 21.5 first downs). You win when the team’s final first down total aligns with your selection of over or under the line.
What other Monday night football props exist?
Monday night football offers unique prop bets beyond standard player and team markets. We’ll find out more about defensive touchdowns, kicking milestones, and crowd-related wagers unique to Monday broadcasts. These niche MNF markets can deliver exceptional value when you understand primetime game dynamics.
Player props
- Total Quarterback rushing attempts – Bet on how many times a quarterback will run the ball, including designed runs and scrambles. Offered as an over/under (eg, over 7.5 attempts). You win if the quarterback’s rushing attempt total aligns with your prediction.
- Player to record a safety – Predict whether any defensive player will score a safety. Listed with high moneyline odds (eg, +2000) reflecting the event’s rarity. You win if any player records a safety during the game.
Team/game props
- First team to commit a turnover – Wager on which team will first lose possession via interception or fumble. Presented as a three-way moneyline including a “neither team” option. You win if your selection matches the game’s turnover sequence.
- First penalty type – Wager on the specific category of the game’s first accepted penalty. Presented with varying odds for common infractions like false start, holding, or pass interference. You win if the penalty matches your selection.
- Overtime occurrence – Bet on whether the game will extend beyond regulation time. Offered as a yes/no proposition with odds (eg, yes +650). You win if the game requires overtime to determine a winner.
- Coach’s challenge result – Predict the outcome of the first coach’s challenge in the game. Listed with odds for successful or unsuccessful challenge results. You win if the initial challenge outcome matches your selection.
What factors make Monday night football unique for prop bettors?
The final game of the NFL week creates a distinctive betting environment unlike any other matchup. As the closing contest, prop bettors get complete roster clarity and refined odds shaped by a full week of market activity. Sportsbooks offer better promotions for this primetime showcase, while many fans use this last opportunity to chase weekend losses or hedge existing positions. These factors combine to create a different market landscape with unique betting challenges and opportunities that require specialized strategies.
Below, we’ll detail each of these distinctive MNF factors.
How do props reflect the final betting volume of the week?
The final NFL game of the week benefits from the most comprehensive betting data. By kickoff, these lines have experienced sharp money, public action, and multiple oddsmaker adjustments.
This creates both challenges and opportunities. MNF prop markets are heavily influenced by recreational bettors, who often favor overs on popular players due to media narratives and public sentiment. This tendency can inflate lines, creating value opportunities on unders and less prominent props for bettors who base their strategies on performance rather than public perception.
How does injury and roster clarity affect prop betting?
The week’s final game provides unparalleled roster transparency. Unlike Thursday contests with fluid designations, teams have completed a full practice week with comprehensive injury reports, walkthroughs, and clear game-status updates.
This clarity offers significant advantages. By Monday evening, the football world knows precisely which players are active, their health status, and expected roles. Full practice reports lead to better lineup clarity than earlier games, making personnel deployment and snap count projections more reliable for informed decision-making.
Why are promotional boosts increased for MNF props?
MNF creates intense competition among sportsbooks seeking maximum engagement before the week concludes. Operators frequently deploy MNF-specific odds boosts, parlay insurance, and “no-brainer” promotions targeting the standalone game.
This promotional landscape generates unique value opportunities unavailable during Sunday’s packed slate. The aggressive marketing push reflects operators’ desire to capture attention on a night with fewer viewing options. This creates a more competitive environment that can benefit those who compare offerings across multiple platforms.
How does public and book focus affect star player props?
Primetime broadcasts naturally emphasize QB storylines and star performers, significantly influencing market dynamics. Sportsbooks anticipate heavy action on recognizable names featured prominently in pre-game coverage, often adjusting lines based on expected betting patterns rather than statistical projections.
This star-focused environment creates interesting market inefficiencies. While casual bettors gravitate toward QB and WR1 props, secondary markets like running back committees, tight end targets, and defensive player props typically receive less attention. The spotlight effect often results in inflated lines for headline performers while complementary players remain more accurately priced.
How does the final game act as a hedge or chase opportunity?
The week’s concluding game often becomes a psychological inflection point for football enthusiasts. This final opportunity creates distinct wagering behaviors. Some chase weekend losses aggressively, while others hedge open parlays or season-long positions.
The emotional motivations significantly impact market dynamics. The standalone nature of the broadcast amplifies these tendencies, as bettors face their last chance to either recover or capitalize on the week’s results. Experienced bettors recognize this phenomenon and establish predetermined limits before weekend outcomes are known, treating the game as an independent event rather than viewing it through the emotional lens of recent results.
What are the best timing and bankroll strategies for MNF props?
Monday night football props demand strategic timing, diligent odds shopping, and disciplined bankroll management. The standalone nature of the season’s final weekly game creates unique challenges where emotional decisions become particularly tempting after a weekend of results.
Let’s examine the five key strategies that can transform your Monday night approach and help you capitalize on these distinctive market conditions.
When are MNF props released?
These prop markets follow a distinct timeline compared to other NFL games. Most major sportsbooks begin posting basic props on Sunday evening, starting with quarterback passing yards and primary skill position totals.
Early-week options focus on players with clearly defined roles who are expected to play regardless of minor injuries. More specialized markets like TD scorers or props involving questionable players typically appear later, sometimes not until Monday morning after final practice reports. Release schedules vary by operator, with some posting earlier than others, creating opportunities for those monitoring multiple platforms.
How can you avoid chasing after a bad Sunday?
The final game creates a psychological danger zone for those coming off disappointing weekend results. The temptation to view it as a “recovery opportunity” rather than an independent event leads many to abandon discipline and make emotional wagers.
Combat this tendency by establishing firm limits before knowing your Sunday outcomes. Allocate a fixed percentage of your weekly bankroll to the Monday game, regardless of weekend performance. Recognize warning signs like increasing bet sizes or pursuing longshot props with poor odds. Preserving capital through disciplined restraint often represents the most profitable long-term approach.
When are the best times to bet MNF props for value?
Timing represents the most critical element for MNF success, requiring a balance between capturing early value and waiting for information clarity. The optimal strategy varies by prop type and your tolerance for uncertainty.
Sunday evening often offers value on stable markets before significant public money arrives. Target props involving players with clearly defined roles that aren’t dependent on late injury news. Monday afternoon provides maximum information clarity once inactive reports become official, working best for props involving questionable players or backup roles that might expand. Combine these approaches based on prop type for optimal results.
How can you leverage promotional offers effectively?
MNF attracts substantial promotional attention from sportsbooks seeking maximum engagement. When approached strategically, these offers can significantly boost expected value, but they require evaluation.
Focus on promotions providing a genuine mathematical advantage rather than marketing gimmicks. True odds boosts that improve payout rates deliver clear value, while same-game parlay insurance can effectively reduce variance. Never increase your planned exposure to qualify for promotional offers. Stick to predetermined unit sizes even when tempted by “free bet” incentives.
Why consider betting low-variance props to close the week?
The final NFL betting opportunity until Thursday can tempt investors to pursue volatile, high-payout options. However, a more sustainable approach focuses on low-variance markets that offer steady performance and manageable risk profiles.
Consider targeting props with high touch volumes and predictable usage patterns. The primary options are QB completions, established running back carries, or receiver targets. These markets typically have narrower outcome ranges than touchdown scorers or big-play propositions, providing more consistent results over time while reducing the emotional swings that can impact decision-making on future slates.
Close your betting week with disciplined, measured plays rather than emotional darts at longshot outcomes. Ending with calm, calculated decisions regardless of outcome positions you better for the following week than chasing one final thrill with questionable expected value.
What are some common mistakes to avoid when betting MNF props?
Monday night football attracts enormous public betting volume after a full weekend of NFL results. Recreational bettors often make emotional wagers based on recent performances and primetime excitement. Sportsbooks anticipate these tendencies and adjust prop lines accordingly, creating both challenges and opportunities for strategic bettors.
- Overreacting to Sunday results – Weekend losses often increase MNF betting volume as players chase losses, leading to poor bankroll decisions. Establish limits for Monday before knowing Sunday’s outcomes and maintain consistent unit sizes regardless of weekend performance.
- Ignoring line movement from weekend results – MNF props shift significantly based on how similar player propositions performed on Sunday, creating value in contrarian positions. Track whether quarterback, receiver, or rushing props consistently went over/under during weekend games to identify potential market overreactions.
- Overlooking travel disadvantages—Teams playing outside their home time zone show measurable performance declines that affect prop markets. When evaluating player prop expectations, factor in travel distance, direction (east/west), and time zone changes.
- Betting based on broadcast narratives – Pre-game shows heavily influence public perception, creating inflated lines on storyline-driven props. Focus on analytical factors that influence performance rather than narrative elements emphasized for entertainment.
- Trusting same-game parlays blindly – Multiple-leg parlays for Monday games appear attractive, but often contain components with negative expected value. Evaluate each prop within a parlay independently, ensuring every component offers standalone value before combining them.
Conclusion
Monday night football prop betting requires balancing technical analysis with psychological discipline as the NFL week concludes. The standalone nature creates both promotional opportunities and emotional pitfalls for bettors coming off weekend results.
Success comes from maintaining consistent unit sizing regardless of Sunday outcomes, leveraging genuine promotional value without overextension, and focusing on reliable volume projections. The disciplined approach treats each opportunity with fresh analysis rather than viewing it through the emotional lens of weekend results.
