Spring is in the air, and the 2022 MLB regular season is nearly upon us. Emphasis on nearly — meaning there’s still time to peruse the MLB division odds and place your wagers!
Having already broken down the American League division races from a value perspective, we now turn our attention to the Senior Circuit. As was the case with the AL, we’ll break down the odds for all three NL divisions, then highlight the team that offers the best betting value in each.
As you’ll see, one recommendation involves backing a chalky favorite — because oddsmakers should’ve made it even chalkier. Additionally, a pair of teams at better than +400 odds to win their divisions stand out as intriguing long shots.
All odds updated as of 2 a.m. ET on April 4.
MLB Division Odds: NL East
- Atlanta Braves +120
- New York Mets +200
- Philadelphia Phillies +350
- Miami Marlins +1,400
- Washington Nationals +4,000
The NL East is a toss-up at the top. Prior to the injury news about Mets ace Jacob deGrom, the Mets were the betting favorites at FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbooks, while the Braves were the chalk at DraftKings and PointsBet USA.
With deGrom now out for at least the first month of the season, Atlanta is the clear-cut favorite across the board, ranging from a low of +115 at DraftKings and FanDuel to a high of +125 at PointsBet USA. New York’s division odds are out to +200 on the low side (BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel) and +225 on the high end (Caesars Sportsbook and PointsBet USA).
Now let’s get to the analysis: Obviously, the Braves are the defending World Series champions … who lost superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers in free agency. However, Atlanta filled the void by trading with the A’s for slugger Matt Olson, a top-shelf first baseman in his own right. In addition, outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. should return from injury in a few weeks, further bolstering the lineup.
Fellow outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who played just 48 games last year because of injury and suspension, also is back in the fold. Ozuna’s return eases the sting of losing 2021 in-season acquisition and World Series MVP Jorge Soler in free agency.
Atlanta’s rotation is talented and deep, and its bullpen should be a strength, especially with the addition of longtime Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen.
According to FanGraphs, the Braves are projected to defend their NL East crown with a division-best 93-69 record. That’s actually 1.5 games higher than the team’s projected win total.
It’s also four games better than FanGraphs’ projection for the Mets, who are pegged to finish second at 89-73 even with deGrom’s long-term availability in doubt.
Lest we forget, New York has a new co-ace in town named Max Scherzer. Behind him are veteran right-handers Carlos Carrasco (who is a bounce-back candidate for 2022) and Chris Bassitt, who has delivered a 3.30 ERA in 70 starts since 2018 (all with the A’s, who traded Bassitt to the Mets in the offseason).
The rotation depth drops off from there, but Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Trevor Williams are serviceable options at the back end. The bullpen is above-average on paper, as well.
At the plate, New York fortified a lineup that lacked consistency in 2021, mostly because of a down year from shortstop Francisco Lindor and no year from second baseman Robinson Canó (season-long PED suspension). Canó is back — albeit long in the tooth at 39 years old — and joined by free-agent acquisitions Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar.
If Lindor returns to form, Canó outperforms his age, and the newcomers contribute to their capabilities, New York will score runs (which will help offset the deGrom loss).
Still, the Braves are rightly favored to take the NL East — but they’re not the best bet. Neither are the Mets …
NL East Value Bet
The bet: Philadelphia Phillies +350
Where to bet: Bet MGM
Frankly, the NL East odds should be closer to a three-team pick ’em. Instead, the Phillies sit a distant third — and even though their price dipped when the deGrom news hit, they still scream “value”!
FanGraphs projects Philadelphia to win 88 games, only five fewer than Atlanta and one less than New York. Yet BetMGM has the Braves at +120, the Mets at +200, and the Phillies at +350.
Philadelphia’s roster isn’t without weak links, particularly when it comes to the bullpen and a very shaky defense. But the lineup packs a big-time power, especially with recent additions Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber surrounding reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper. Also, the 1-2 starting pitching punch of Zack Wheeler (the 2021 NL Cy Young runner-up) and Aaron Nola is well above-average.
To repeat what we stated at the top: This division is a toss-up, but the betting odds don’t really reflect that. So why not take a shot with Philadelphia? Certainly, many bettors already have, as the Phillies lead the way in ticket count and handle in BetMGM’s NL East odds market. They’re also the book’s biggest liability to win the division.
Finally, I’m encouraged by Derek Carty’s “The Bat X” projections:
THE BAT X now projects the #Phillies as the # 2⃣ team in MLB!! 👀👀👀
Schwarber and Castellanos have added 5⃣ WINS to their projection!
*(Way behind Dodgers, a fraction of a win ahead of MIL/NYY/ATL)
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) March 19, 2022
Bottom line: You won’t find better value in the MLB division odds market than the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies.
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MLB Division Odds: NL Central
- Milwaukee Brewers -165
- St. Louis Cardinals +215
- Chicago Cubs +1,100
- Cincinnati Reds +1,700
- Pittsburgh Pirates +7,500
The most intriguing battle in the NL Central might be the race to the bottom rather than the quest for the division crown. According to Spotrac, 10 teams have a 2022 payroll under $100 million, and two of those squads call the NL Central home.
The Reds are 21st in salary ($99,580,000) and the Pirates are 28th ($37,875,000). Shortly after MLB’s lockout ended, Cincinnati traded outfielder Jesse Winker to the Mariners to dump free-swinging third baseman Eugenio Suarez and his sizable contract for a pittance in return. Meanwhile, with owner/notorious tightwad Robert Nutting running the ship in Pittsburgh, the Pirates are constantly pinching pennies — and thus constantly in rebuild mode.
Speaking of rebuilding, that’s the situation on the north side of Chicago. And while the Cubs have added some interesting pieces — most notably, Japanese import/NL Rookie of the Year favorite Seiya Suzuki — they’re probably not a legitimate challenger for the division title.
That leaves the Cardinals as the top pick to topple the chalk. They’re the only team other than the Brewers with a projected FanGraphs record above .500. However, St. Louis’ 82-80 predicted finish is six games worse than Milwaukee’s 88-74 mark.
It’s ironic that the Redbirds are expected to be merely average in 2022 because that’s what their roster looks like: average, across the board. Even at full health, St. Louis is inferior to the Brewers in every way. Throw in the arm issues that ace Jack Flaherty is dealing with, and St. Louis is an even easier fade.
Which means … yep, get ready to eat some chalk!
NL Central Value Bet
The bet: Milwaukee Brewers -165
Where to bet: DraftKings
Milwaukee’s offense has flaws — the biggest of which appear to center around a recent NL MVP. Outfielder Christian Yelich is batting .194 with 21 homers and 77 RBI in 175 games spanning the last two seasons. This after going .326-36-110 in 2018 and .329-44-97 in 2019.
However, whatever issues the Brewers have at the plate are trumped by a stacked starting rotation topped by 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. Behind Burnes is fellow Cy Young candidate Brandon Woodruff, as well as solid No. 3 starter Freddy Peralta. From there, Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer don’t generate excitement, but they’re fine enough. And 23-year-old right-hander Aaron Ashby is a breakout candidate.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s bullpen is headlined by the one-two lockdown punch of Josh Hader and Devin Williams. So dominant are Hader and Williams that they turn nine-inning games into seven-inning games.
Going back to FanGraphs, the site’s projection of the Brewers to win the NL Central by six games matches the largest gap of any division winner (tying Houston in the AL West). Understandably, Milwaukee leads the way in handle at BetMGM and is its biggest liability. However, the best price on the Brewers in the MLB division odds market is at DraftKings, which has Milwaukee at -165, just a hair better than PointsBet USA (-167).
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MLB Division Odds: NL West
- Los Angeles Dodgers -230
- San Diego Padres +350
- San Francisco Giants +600
- Colorado Rockies +12,000
- Arizona Diamondbacks +15,000
The Dodgers are the runaway favorites to win the NL West and have the shortest odds of any team to win their division. But, honestly, the price is fair. Los Angeles has added 2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman to an already loaded lineup, creating one of the deepest and best offenses in the game’s history.
The rotation is topped with three front-line starters who all would be aces in many places: Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Clayton Kershaw (though Kershaw’s health becomes a growing concern with each passing year). There is a bit of a drop-off from top three, but there are plenty of options in Tony Gonsolin, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, and David Price. Further, veteran southpaw Danny Duffy should return this summer, and 2020 NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer (administrative leave) is a complete wild card.
Obviously, several of those back-end-rotation options will wind up in the bullpen, where Craig Kimbrel, Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson are the likely the main late-game/closing candidates.
As great as L.A. should be, I don’t like tying money up on a futures bet at -230 odds, even if it’s — again — a fair price. Instead, I encourage parlaying the Dodgers with another division winner if you’re absolutely convinced they can’t lose NL West. For example, parlaying the Brewers and Dodgers to win their divisions at FanDuel yields a +131 payout.
Right behind L.A. on the MLB division odds board in the NL West is San Diego, which beefed up an already strong starting rotation Sunday by acquiring Oakland A’s lefty Sean Manaea. With ace-like stuff, Manaea joins Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Tommy John-returnee Mike Clevinger to form one of the best top-to-bottom staffs in the game.
The biggest problem for the Padres last year was health. Expected to challenge the Dodgers for division supremacy in 2021, San Diego petered to a 79-83 record. That was four games worse than the club’s 83-79 Pythagorean (expected) record — meaning that in addition to injuries the Padres were on the receiving end of some bad luck.
So what happened right after the MLB lockout ended? More injuries/bad luck: Superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. revealed he broke his wrist in the offseason and is expected to miss at least the first two months. That’s a huge blow to an offense that already had quality and depth issues (especially in the outfield).
So who’s left to truly challenge the big-bad Dodgers in the NL West? The same team that stole the division from L.A. last season.
NL West Value Bet
The bet: San Francisco Giants +600
Where to bet: DraftKings and FanDuel
Full disclosure: I’m a Giants fan. However, I assure you this isn’t a homer pick. In fact, I’m not so sure I’ll make this bet myself, and I caution you against sprinkling more than a few bucks on the Giants to win the NL West.
All that said, much like Philadelphia in the NL East, San Francisco has longer odds to win the NL West than it should — which is why the Giants are the best value bet in this division.
In 2021, San Francisco improbably won an MLB-high 107 games. It also had the second-most Pythagorean wins at 103 (meaning the club outperformed expectations by only four games). Additionally, according to FanGraphs, the 2021 Giants had a top-five offense (108 wRC+), defense, and pitching staff (3.44 ERA).
Unfortunately, the 2022 Giants look much different than the 2021 squad. Catcher Buster Posey’s retirement is likely the most impactful offseason loss. Further, San Francisco lost frontline starting pitcher Kevin Gausman and in-season trade acquisition Kris Bryant in free agency.
On the flip side, Carlos Rodon and Alex Cobb were added to replace Gausman, who waited till his ninth big-league season to have a career year (14-6, 2.81 ERA in 2021). In tandem, Rodon and Cobb offer a higher ceiling than Gausman by himself. But, of course, Rodon comes with risk, as he dealt with shoulder fatigue at the end of 2021. As for Cobb, he’s reportedly lighting up the radar gun.
Jeff Passan says multiple scouts have heard that Alex Cobb is throwing 97 mph 👀https://t.co/oWfM0rNSVy pic.twitter.com/Z52STmr3Tg
— Ben Kaspick (@BenKaspick) March 31, 2022
The velo spike is an eye-catching change on the heels of a stellar 2021 season in which Cobb spun a 3.76 ERA, 3.98 xERA, 3.83 SIERA, and 3.38 xFIP in 18 starts spanning 93.1 innings for the Los Angeles Angels last year.
Throw in bona fide ace Brandon Webb, and San Francisco’s rotation should be in great shape if Rodon holds up.
Naysayers will scream regression for the offense, pointing to older veterans coming off career years. However, I’ll counter by pointing to the superb underlying plate discipline and batted-ball data for vets such as third baseman Evan Longoria and first baseman Brandon Belt, and the batting stance change for shortstop Brandon Crawford (career-high 24 homers, 90 RBI in 2021).
Am I projecting the Giants to lead MLB in wins again? No. Might they need to in order to best the Dodgers for the NL West crown? Maybe.
Again, I expect the Dodgers to win the division. Still, San Francisco was great last year and should be a playoff contender again. If the Giants win the “health battle” against Los Angeles — that is, lose fewer key players to injury than their hated rivals — they very easily could be in contention come September.
If that happens, wouldn’t it be nice to have a 6/1 ticket in your pocket — even if just for hedging opportunities?
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