We’re going to hunt for the best Week 8 picks for this weekend!
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
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Best Week 8 Picks – NFL Player Props
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
Bijan Robinson Player Props
- Over 129.5 rushing + receiving yards
It’s very likely Robinson’s props will be among the most heavily bet in Week 8, and that’s with good reason. The matchup against the Dolphins’ defense is one that’s been attackable all season from both a football and betting perspective.
Although Miami has shown some signs of tightening up against the run recently, the combination of Robinson’s talent and the blocking he typically benefits from makes this a very good spot.
The Dolphins are still allowing 5.2 RB yards per carry, and they rank No. 24 and No. 31, respectively, in second-level and open-field yards per carry allowed. Miami also ranks just outside of the bottom 10 of the league in explosive play rate surrendered (9.2%), including 11.8% over the last three contests.
Moreover, the Fins aren’t wrapping up very well – they’re sporting the ninth-highest missed-tackle rate (13.5%) – while Robinson comes in with an elite 33% broken-tackle rate and average of 3.8 yards after contact per carry.
Then, he also has an outstanding 30-390-2 receiving line on 39 targets through six games and is averaging 11.9 yards after the catch per reception.
In turn, the Dolphins have surrendered a 33-289-2 receiving line to running backs, along with an 87% catch rate to the position.
Saquon Barkley Player Props
- Over 98.5 rushing + receiving yards
Yes, Barkley has been frustrating essentially anyone who’s staked any amount of cash on him this season. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year has looked anything but this season, averaging a miserable 3.3 yards per carry.
Yet, a breakout performance has to come at some point, and this hyper-incentivized game for both the Giants and even Saquon personally lines up as a potential spot for such beyond just the narratives.
The Giants have been trampled by the run most of the season, allowing an NFC-high 5.35 RB yards per carry going into Week 8 action. New York also holds rankings of No. 25 and No. 30, respectively, in second-level and open-field yards per carry surrendered, and notably, Barkley’s most efficient game to date came in Week 6 against New York.
Game script limited the star back to just 12 carries, but he averaged 4.8 yards per tote with those opportunities and broke off a season-high three runs of 10+ yards. The Eagles’ offensive line certainly has underperformed, but Barkley could benefit from the fact the G-Men also sport the seventh-highest missed-tackle rate (13.9%), including 15.7% on the road.
Chimere Dike Player Props
- Over 27.5 receiving yards
Dike is teed up for what could be a successful encore performance to his career-best Week 7 game, one where the speedy fourth-round pick posted a 4-70-1 receiving line across 30 snaps in a loss to the Patriots.
Calvin Ridley has already been ruled out for Sunday’s game with his hamstring injury, so the Titans’ top receiving trio once again projects to be Elic Ayomanor, Van Jefferson, and Dike.
This yardage prop is one Dike is capable of cashing with just a single play, considering his blazing 4.34 40 time.
Dike has just one catch of 20+ yards among his first 13 NFL receptions; however, the changes to the offense instilled by interim head coach Mike McCoy in his first game at the helm in Week 7 already started to bear some fruit for the young wideout, who popped for 17.5 yards per target after not clearing 3.4 in that category in any of his first six games.
The Colts make for good targets for a number of reasons, including the fact that their offense will almost certainly force the Titans into a pass-centric, aggressive attack at some point.
Indy has also surrendered an NFL-high 82.3 receiving yards per game to WR2s and 72.5 receiving yards per contest to WR3s, along with the second-most receiving yards (1,212) to WRs overall; therefore, Dike’s outlook is bright irrespective of which spot on the depth chart he slots into.
Matthew Golden Player Props
- Over 40.5 receiving yards
After a slow start to his career in the first two games, Golden is picking up steam by the week. The fleet first-round pick has generated an ultra-efficient 16-233-0 line on 19 targets in the subsequent four contests, averaging an impressive 2.12 yards per route run in that sample.
Golden’s catch rate of 78.3% overall on the season particularly stands out when considering his robust 12.3-yard aDOT, and he’s now facing a Steelers defense that’s at times struggled to contain receivers despite the presence of Joey Porter and Jalen Ramsey.
Fueled in no small part by Ja’Marr Chase’s otherworldly Week 7 exploits, Pittsburgh has allowed an NFL-high 96.8 receiving yards per game to WR1s.
The Steelers have given up 10.0 yards per completion overall, and Golden has exceeded this prop in three of the past four games while falling just short with 37 yards in his most recent game in Week 7 against the Cardinals.
While the Steelers’ aforementioned boundary corners certainly have the talent to make Golden work for whatever yards he does get, much like Dike, this is a relatively modest benchmark to clear for a receiver with such elite speed.
Golden has already taken five of his 18 total receptions for 20+ yards, so a pair of solid catch-and-run plays could get him there in what should be a competitive primetime battle.
Rashee Rice Player Props
- Over 5.5 receptions
- Over 67.5 receiving yards
We’ll close things out with one more receiver, as Rice already corroborated he’s in midseason form in his Week 7 season debut and could ramp up even further in this Monday night home clash. The 2023 second-round pick ran 20 routes and played 33 snaps overall in the win over the Raiders, recording a 7-42-2 line on 10 targets.
The fact KC had the game well in hand throughout the second half capped Rice’s production to an extent, and in what should be a more competitive game Monday – especially if Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel are available to Marcus Mariota.
Rice averaged only 4.2 yards per target vs Las Vegas, but he posted figures of 9.2 and 9.9 in his first two seasons. The Commanders are a team that facilitates plenty of downfield production, allowing an NFL-high 12.1 yards per completion.
Washington is also surrendering a 70.8% percent completion rate on the road, as well as 14.1 yards per catch to wide receivers specifically.
The Commanders are also facilitating 68.8 receiving yards on 7.1 targets per game to WR1s, and as Patrick Mahomes demonstrated versus the Raiders, he wants to make up for lost time with his top wideout after Rice served a suspension for the first six weeks of the season.
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