We’re going to hunt for the best Week 6 picks for this weekend!
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
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Best Week 6 Picks – NFL Player Props
You can find these best Week 6 picks on multiple platforms, but check out this great boost on Underdog!
Kyren Williams, LAR
- Higher Than 72.5 Rushing Yards
Williams remains the unquestioned workhorse of the Rams’ ground attack, despite the inroads Blake Corum has clearly made at times in the early portion of his second season.
Williams is averaging 16.4 carries and 73.6 rushing yards per contest, and he’s coming in well-rested after Los Angeles last played on Thursday night in Week 5.
The Texans went after the Ravens through the air with plenty of success in Week 5, but both Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey appear to be on track to return this week.
Meanwhile, Baltimore could still be missing Roquan Smith (hamstring) from its front seven and is allowing 4.83 RB yards and 4.85 adjusted line yards per carry, while also ranking in the bottom of the league in second-level yards (1.23, 18th) and open-field yards (1.10, 27th) per carry allowed.
In turn, Williams has an above-average 17.1% broken-tackle rate, and the Rams’ offensive line is ranked tops in the NFL with 5.68 adjusted line yards per carry facilitated while also generating the second-most second-level yards per carry (1.62).
The combination of all the metrics and factors cited tees up Williams for a particularly efficient day, especially if Los Angeles makes good on its status as heavy road favorites
Bijan Robinson, ATL
- Higher Than 112.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
The Bills are a Super Bowl contender, but stopping the run has not been a strong suit for Buffalo, especially with Ed Oliver missing multiple games due to an ankle injury.
The Bills come into this primetime matchup ranked 28th in RB yards per carry surrendered (4.99), 31st in Power Success Rate allowed (100%), and 28th in both second-level (1.41) and open-field (1.45) yards per carry surrendered.
Robinson should be refreshed coming out of a Week 5 bye and will be on the fast track of his home turf. He’s already sporting an elite 35.9% broken-tackle rate and averaging a similarly impressive 3.2 yards after contact per carry.
He’s rushed for between 72 and 143 yards in each of his last three games while also logging at least five targets in all four contests to date and exceeding the 100-yard mark twice through the air as well.
The 2023 first-round pick is running behind a formidable line that’s facilitating 4.5 RB yards per carry (No. 12 ranking) and the fifth-most second-level yards per carry (1.43).
The Bills are also surrendering an average of 4.2 receptions per game to RBs, and given Robinson’s key role in the passing attack, his rushing + receiving yards prop is one that’s viable.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS
- Higher Than 59.5 Rushing Yards
Croskey-Merritt is still part of a committee in Washington, but he’s coming off having parlayed a career-high 14 carries into a career-best 111 rushing yards in Week 5 on the road against a talented Chargers defense.
The rookie seventh-round pick is clearly already the most talented member of his position group, and additionally, No. 2 back Chris Rodriguez went into Friday dealing with a calf injury that caused him to sit out Thursday’s session and could well end up costing him Monday night’s game.
The matchup for Croskey-Merritt against the Bears’ defense is an inviting one on paper. Chicago is ranked No. 31 in adjusted line yards per carry (5.02) and No. 32 in RB yards per carry (6.05) allowed, and the Bears also check in dead last in both second-level yards (1.77) and open-field yards (1.95) per carry conceded.
For his part, Croskey-Merritt is shredding would-be obstacles, posting an excellent 27.9% broken-tackle rate and averaging a stellar 4.0 yards per carry after initial contact.
His O-line is playing a big role as well, ranking No. 7 in adjusted line yards (4.67) and RB yards (5.97) per carry, while also facilitating the third-most second-level yards (1.55) and second-most open-field (1.80) yards per rush attempt.
Kansas City vs Detroit Player Props
Patrick Mahomes, KC
- Higher Than 265.5 Passing Yards
The Chiefs vowed to get back to more of an aggressive passing game this season, and despite plenty of challenges with respect to personnel availability at the receiver position, they’ve mostly held true to that pledge.
Mahomes checks in to this critical Sunday night home clash, averaging 251.4 passing yards per game and already has half as many 40+ yards completions (two) as he recorded over 16 regular-season games in 2024.
What’s more, Mahomes is averaging the sixth-highest intended air yards per pass attempt (8.3), and he sports an Xcomp rate of 66.4% that’s actually three points higher than his actual 63.4% figure.
The matchup against an injury-decimated Lions secondary and the fact KC is scuffling at 2-3 could be just the right recipe for a big passing night for Mahomes, which is implied by the fact this prop has actually risen about six yards on average since earlier in the week.
Detroit has allowed an elevated 10.4 yards per completion on the road, and both Terrion Arnold (shoulder) and D.J. Reed (IR, hamstring) will miss Sunday’s game.
Additionally, starting safeties Brian Branch (ankle) and Kerby Joseph (knee) are in danger of sitting out, and the Lions already rank just inside the bottom 10 in explosive play rate allowed (6.3%)
The Lions rank in the top half in multiple metrics against the run as well, including RB yards per carry (3.97). Meanwhile, KC’s offensive line is facilitating just 3.94 RB yards per tote, so a pass-heavy approach here in an effort to keep up with a Lions offense that’s been a juggernaut is likely.
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