We’re going to hunt for the best NFL Week 14 bets for this weekend!
Each week, Mining the Metrics will aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics.
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Best Week 14 Bets – NFL Player Props
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
James Cook, BUF vs. CIN
- Higher Than 112.5 rushing + receiving yards
- Longest rush > 18.5 yards
There are several running backs in particularly favorable spots this week, and Cook leads the way in that regard. The explosive fourth-year pro already checks into Sunday on a five-game heater, having averaged 95.0 rushing yards and 29.4 receiving yards on 24 total touches per contest.
Cook should naturally remain featured in Sunday’s potential high-scoring affair, one where he’ll face a Bengals defense surrendering an AFC-high 5.2 RB yards per carry and holding respective No. 30 and No. 26 rankings in second-level (1.44) and open-field yards (1.06) per carry allowed.
Cook has a solid 16% broken-tackle rate, and he boasts eight runs of 20+ yards, including three of 40+. Cincinnati has also surrendered the sixth-most receptions (62) and third-most receiving yards (561) to running backs, making the two props listed above very viable to pursue for a game in which Buffalo carries an implied team total of just under 30 points.
Chase Brown, CIN at BUF
- Higher Than 71.5 rushing + receiving yards
Brown might be a bit overlooked this week given the opponent and his just-discussed opposite number, but the Bengals’ versatile back has some solid upside in his own right given his robust dual role and recent body of work.
Brown is in the midst of his productive stretch of the season, averaging 83.7 rushing yards and 30.8 receiving yards on 21 total touches per game over his last six contests. The third-year pro has five runs of 20+ yards as well, and he’s averaging 4.0 receptions and 23.9 receiving yards per game in addition to his exploits on the ground.
The Bills are right behind the Bengals in RB yards per carry allowed (5.13), and Buffalo has been even more generous overall in surrendering chunk plays on the ground. The Bills rank No. 28 and No. 31 in second-level (1.39) and open-field (1.53) yards per carry allowed, while Brown checks with a 17.5% broken-tackle rate and average of 3.1 yards per carry after contact.
De’Von Achane, MIA at NYJ
- Higher Than 115.5 rushing + receiving yards
Achane makes our list this week as well as a third back that could pay nice dividends, and like Cook and Brown, the Dolphins’ do-it-all backfield star has an unquestioned lead role that he frequently carries out with plenty of success.
Achane has been running hot for even longer than Cook and Brown also, as he boasts averages of 110.3 rushing yards and 28.3 receiving yards on 22.1 touches per game over his last seven contests. Achane has exceeded 20 carries in three straight contests as well, putting up at least 120 rushing yards in each, and he has at least five receptions in four of his last five games.
The Jets have some solid metrics against the run in certain categories, but they rank No. 18 in open-field yards per carry allowed (0.72) and No. 29 in power success rate conceded (76%). Meanwhile, Achane is gaining an elite 3.8 yards per carry after contact, and New York is also surrendering a 76.8% catch rate and 28.6 receiving yards per game to running backs.
J.J. McCarthy, MIN vs. WAS
- Higher Than 181.5 passing yards
Expectations are understandably low for McCarthy after his most recent performance was abysmal by all accounts. However, there’s also an argument to be made the second-year signal-caller is nowhere near as bad as that 87-yard, two-interception performance versus an elite Packes defense, and we’ll aim to take advantage of the very reasonable passing yardage prop in a much easier matchup.
The Commanders continue to sport one of the most porous secondaries in the league, checking into Week 14 allowing 254.9 passing yards per game, including 259 over the last three contests. Washington is also yielding plenty of chunk plays, as the Commanders’ 12.1 yards per completion surrendered ranks as the highest figure in the league.
Granted, McCarthy has only exceeded this yardage figure once in his first six career games, but the possibility of yardage piling up on fewer completions than usual gives him a fighting chance here. Additionally, it’s certainly possible head coach Kevin O’Connell looks to rebuild his young quarterback’s confidence in front of the home crowd through his impressive array of pass-catching weapons, especially with Washington also giving up a 71.3 percent completion rate on the road.
Jordan Addison, MIN vs. WAS
- Higher Than 38.5 receiving yards
Given what’s just been laid out as an argument for McCarthy, it only makes sense to pair up his prop with one for his talented No. 2 receiver. Addison has naturally seen his production capped by the team’s struggles at quarterback at times, but there’s no questioning Addison’s ability to exceed this extremely modest figure on just a catch or two.
Addison is averaging 13.6 yards per catch and has impressively gained 20+ yards on seven of his 33 receptions to date. The fleet-footed third-year pro is averaging a plentiful 94.2 air yards per game and has exceeded this prop on four occasions in nine games, which is a much more acceptable ration than might appear on the surface considering how much McCarthy has struggled at times, not to mention Max Brosmer’s disastrous performance in Week 13.
In addition to the vulnerabilities of the Commanders defense already enumerated in McCarthy’s entry above, it’s also worth noting Addison averaged 2.4 yards per route run at home last season against the man coverage the Commanders run 32.1% of the time (14th), and 2.20 at home this season against the zone scheme Washington has run at an 84.6% clip in the last three games.
Essentially, Addison is capable of thriving against either with some serviceable quarterback play, and we’re banking on McCarthy being competent enough to get him to at least 39 yards Sunday against a defense giving up a generous 14.0 yards per reception to wide receivers.
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