NFL

NFL betting Guide

You’ve seen the news and picks above, now use this evergreen, plain-English refresher on bet types, core strategy, pricing, and the terms you’ll run into every week.

Please read it before you bet so you know what the market means, how to think about the price, and the small habits that protect or even increase your bankroll.

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Most common types of NFL bets

If you’re new to NFL betting, it helps to know the different bet types available. So here’s an explanation of the different markets available, along with any important rules you need to know affecting whether a bet will win or lose.

Moneyline betting

A moneyline bet is simply a bet on the outright winner.

The odds on offer can be positive or negtive, showing either what you need to risk, or what you’ll get in return. A positive number indicates how much you profit if you bet $100, while a negative number shows how much you must bet to receive $100 if you win.

As an example, if you have Chiefs (-150) vs. Raiders (+130), it means you’d need to risk $150 on Chiefs to receive $100 profit if they win, or you need to bet $100 to receive $130 back if Raiders produce the upset.

It’s standard for Moneyline markets to be two-way ‘win or lose’ only, so if the game ends in a tie, you get your stake refunded as a ‘push’. However, some sportsbooks offer three-way moneylines that grade only on regulation time. In those markets, a tie is a separate outcome, and any pick on either side loses if the score is even after four quarters. So always double-check the market labels to know precisely how ties are handled.

Point spread betting

Point spreads tell you how much a team has to win or lose by.

For example, if the Cowboys are -7 (-110) against the Giants at +7 (-110), Dallas backers need an 8-point win to cash. Giants tickets get there if New York wins outright or keeps it within 6. If the game lands exactly on 7, it’s a push, and everyone just gets their money back.

That’s why a half-point matters so much around a number like seven, it’s one of the most common margins in football. At -6.5 a Dallas win by a touchdown is good for you, while at +6.5 the same score sinks Giants bets. Books let you “buy” or “sell” points to move a spread, but the odds change every time you do, so the trick is knowing when that shift is worth the price.

Totals betting (over/under)

Totals are all about the combined score from both teams.

If the line is 48.5 (-110), the over hits at 49 or more, while the under cashes at 48 or less. When the number is a clean 48 instead of 48.5, a game that lands right there is graded as a push, and your stake gets refunded.

Typically (though not always), overtime is counted for NFL totals and team totals, which can swing things in a close game because an extra possession or two might push the score past the line.

Prop bets

Prop bets (short for proposition bets) are wagers on specific events during a game, rather than on the final socre. They can be built around a player’s stat line, such as yards, touchdowns, or tackles, or they can focus on team angles, such as total points or made field goals.

The appeal to props is that every snap can matter to your ticket, but there are a couple of things you really need to know.

First, participation rules aren’t the same at every sportsbook. Some refund your stake if a listed player is active but never takes the field, while others count it as action even if he never gets to play, so make sure to check the house rules before betting.

Second, you can place props in-game in live markets, but the odds move quickly. However, if you understand how a team adjusts after an injury or an early lead, you can sometimes spot a number that hasn’t caught up with the changes yet to find an edge.

Parlays

Parlays are where you tie several picks together into a single wager where the odds multiply together for a much bigger potential payout, but the catch is that every leg has to hit for the bet to win! If a single leg is lost, the whole ticket is forfeited.

Sportsbooks don’t allow combinations that obviously move together, and even when they do (like in same-game parlays), the odds are adjusted because the legs aren’t truly independent.

The smart way to use ‘Same Game Parlays’ (SGPs) is when each pick lines up with the same game story you expect, and the payout still looks worth the added risk.

Derivatives and segments

Derivatives are just bets you can place on smaller chunks of the game, like the first quarter, first half, or a team’s own point total.

They don’t always line up with the full-game line because coaches script the early plays, teams handle end-of-half drives differently, and pace can swing back and forth.

If you think both sides come out flying, a first-half over might be smarter than the whole-game number. If you see a slow grind with points piling up later, the under early could be the sharper move.

These bets let you play the part of the game that actually matches how you see it, instead of being stuck with the full 60 minutes.

Alternate lines

In simple terms, alternate lines let you pick your own line, and the sportsbook changes the price to match.

You can shift the line down to make it easier to hit, but the odds drop, so the payout is smaller. Or you can push it the other way, making the bet harder to hit, and then of course the odds go up, meaning a bigger return if you’re right.

It’s a handy way to show how confident you are, where you can tighten it up when you want a bit more safety, or stretch it out when you’re chasing value and bigger payouts.

A deeper look at NFL prop bets

We concentrate on prop bets here at props.com, so let’s take a deeper look at the most common prop markets on offer to help you understand the picks and tips our experts provide above.

Most props fall into three main groups.

1. Player props are about one player’s numbers, like how many yards a quarterback throws for, how many touchdowns he gets, or how many passes he completes.
2. Team props look at the whole side instead of just one player — things like the total points a team scores, the number of touchdowns they rack up, or whether they’ll be the first to cross the goal line.
3. Game props step back and cover the one-off moments, such as the margin of victory, or which play ends up being the longest of the night.

Within those groups, you’ll see some extras. Books will often offer alternate lines, which let you move the number higher or lower depending on how confident you feel. You’ll also find same-game parlays, where you link a few related props together. And then there are quarter or half props, which slice the game into smaller chunks.

touchdown scorer prop bets (first, last, anytime scorer)

NFL touchdown scorer props are just what they sound like! You’re betting on who finds the end zone, and whether it’s the first score, the last, or anytime during the game.

To make a good pick, you’ve got to look at who usually gets the ball close to the goal line and what the offense tends to do in those spots.

Power backs and trusted red-zone targets are the usual suspects, and if the defense has trouble stopping runs or covering tight ends down there, your chances get better. Teams that are expected to win big also tend to create more scoring chances.

It helps to notice the details. Who actually gets the handoff inside the ten, which receiver the quarterback looks for when space gets tight, and whether the tight end is blocking or running routes.

With first- or last-touchdown bets, it’s a bit of a gamble because it depends on who’s on the field at the right time, so you’ve got to be careful with the price you take. Anytime bets are steadier because your pick just needs to score at any point in the game.

passing prop bets (yards, touchdowns, completions)

Passing props are simple: the sportsbook puts up a line for a quarterback’s yards, touchdowns, or completions, and you pick whether he’ll finish over or under that mark. To size it up you look at a few things. If the defense is good at getting pressure or disguising coverages, passing gets harder. Bad weather, like wind or rain, can kill deep throws too.

Team style matters just as much. Some coaches call pass after pass when the game is close, others slow it down and run. If the offense plays fast and the line blocks well, the quarterback usually racks up attempts. But if his top targets are banged up, or the scheme doesn’t fit, the totals can come down. Indoors, you don’t worry about weather, but outside, steady winds around 15 or 20 miles an hour make it tough to throw deep.

Say the line on Mahomes is 295.5 yards if he throws for 296 or more, the over cashes. If he ends at 295 or fewer, the under wins.

Live betting gives you another angle. If a team pulls ahead, they tend to run more, and the passing slows down. If they’re trailing, the quarterback might throw on nearly every snap, which drives up completions even if the yards aren’t huge.

rushing prop bets (yards, touchdowns, attempts)

Rushing props focus on how much work a running back gets and what he does with it. You’re basically betting on how many yards he runs for, if he finds the end zone, or how many times he even gets the ball.

The main things to think about are whether the team actually feeds him the ball and whether the guys up front can block well enough to give him some room to run.

Recent carry counts tell you a lot, and you always want to know if he’s healthy. And it’s the same with the defense he’s facing, because if they’re soft against the run, the odds of a good day go up. On the flip side, if his team falls way behind, coaches usually stop running and start throwing more, which strongly works against this kind of bet.

Quarterbacks matter in rushing prop,s too. Some of them take off a lot, and those scrambles can eat into an RB’s totals. And short-yardage and goal-line plays usually go to one guy, so those are the backs you want for touchdown props, while attempts props fit teams that ride one main runner all game.

receiving prop bets (yards, receptions, touchdowns)

Receiving props focus on the performance of wide receivers and tight ends: How many yards they get, how many passes they catch, or whether they score.

These bets come down to two things, which are who is covering them and how much their team plans to throw. If it’s a pass-first offense and the QB trusts the guy, he’s going to see plenty of chances.

Think about it this way: Does he usually get the ball when he’s on the field? Are his passes mostly short and safe, or does the quarterback take deeper shots to him? Short throws usually give you steady catches, and deeper throws can swing things with one big play.

The matchup matters, too. Some defenses give receivers room, while others make it a grind. And if a teammate is hurt, suddenly the guy might see twice as many throws as usual.

team prop bets (total points, first team to score, total touchdowns)

Team props are all about the bigger picture! They focus not only on one player, but also on how the whole team performs.

You can bet on how many points a team puts up, who finds the end zone first, or how many touchdowns they’ll score in total.

It usually comes down to how well the offense is clicking and whether the defense across from them can slow it down. High-scoring games give you more chances, grind-it-out games give you far fewer. For the “first team to score,” you’re really betting on who starts sharper, since some teams script their opening drives more effectively than others.

Expert tips for betting on the NFL

When you’re betting props, do more than just stare at the numbers on the screen and randomly pick what you like. Put a little study into the players on the field, the matchups in front of them, and all the little things that tilt a game one way or the other.

Think about form, game plan, weather, injuries, even when the sportsbooks first post their lines. Get a handle on those, and you can make informed decisions, becoming a smart bettor instead of making blind guesses.

Here’s a brief look at some of the things you should consider:

Analyze player and team performance

Numbers only help if you know what they mean in terms of a bet, how they indicate who will continue to receive chances, and who might not.

• Team style: If a team runs more than it passes, quarterbacks and receivers get fewer looks, so passing and reception bets are harder to hit. However, if the team throws a lot, those markets get more chances.
• Form and consistency: One big game you should see as just noise. Players who do the same thing week after week are the ones to trust for successful props.
• Core stats: Yards per attempt and completion rate show how clean a team’s passing game is, while touchdown rates and defensive rankings tell you whether scoring is likely.
• Matchups: Who’s covering your player from the opposing team matters! If they face the opponent’s best defender, they probably won’t get many passes thrown their way.
• Usage: How often the player is on the field and how often the QB throws to them (plus red-zone snaps) tells you if volume bets make sense.
• Coaching: A new play-caller, tempo change, or different personnel can move who gets the ball, so don’t trust old games if lineups or staff have changed.

Weather and venue considerations

Weather isn’t just background noise, it can have quite an effect on how games pan out:

• Good weather: Indoors or calm days mean passes go where they should, catches are easier, and kickers aren’t fighting the wind. So passing and kicking bets are generally safer.
• Bad weather: Wind, heavy rain, snow, extreme cold, or a muddy field make long throws and kicks risky and catching harder, so teams hand the ball off more, and the number of short passes increases. So now you should favor rushing or short-pass bets.

Impact of injuries

Injuries change who plays and what a team does, and that can flip a bet in an instant.

• Practice reports: If a player gets downgraded midweek, labeled “limited” or “questionable”, treat it as a real warning that he might not be right on game day.
• Final roster: The official list, about 90 minutes before kickoff, shows who’s actually playing. If a starter is out, the backup can suddenly get a lot more work.
• Depth: Teams with good backups absorb hits, whereas thin teams hand big jobs to players who may not be ready.
• Odds lag: Sportsbooks don’t always update prices immediately when injuries occur, and hence the roles change, and that short delay is where you can sometimes find value.

Timing and release of prop odds

When a line appears and how it moves can matter as much as the pick itself.

• Posting: Most sportsbooks put up their lines a day or two before the game, although big, prime-time matchups often arrive earlier.
• Movement: When lots of people bet or news breaks, the price naturally changes. Wait, and sometimes the number you wanted might be gone.
• News windows: Injury or lineup updates often create brief opportunities to secure a better price before the books adjust.
• Travel and rest: How far a team travels and how much rest they’ve had actually changes performance. Short weeks and long flights leave players worn out and slower than normal. Tired players make more mistakes and don’t move as quickly, which can hurt both offense and defense. Books may nudge numbers when a team has a rough travel schedule, so these spots can be worth a second look.

Find the best odds

You simply must check the price of your bets across multiple different sportsbooks, because the odds and payouts can vary a hell of a lot!

Keep active accounts in multiple places, and use a price tracker or odds comparison site to see at a glance and grab the best odds on offer.

Also, be sure to use bonuses and promotions cleverly, spread your bets so you’re not all in one spot, and only put down your money when the price looks better than your own well-judged estimate. Don’t bet with your gut.

Stay updated on team news

Small team news updates can turn a good bet into a bad one fast!

If a starter is ruled out before kickoff, someone else suddenly gets more chances, and the prices change. Quiet role tweaks, like a coach giving a rookie extra snaps or moving a receiver, matter even if they don’t make headlines.

So make sure to follow beat reporters and official team social accounts by setting up push alerts so you can move before the lines catch up.

Key vocabulary refresher

• Alt (alternate) line: A non-standard number that the book offers at a different price so you can choose more or less risk.
• Anytime scorer: A bet that a named player will score at least once during the game.
• Cover the spread: The favorite wins by more than the spread, or the underdog loses by fewer points than the spread (or wins).
• Favorite: The team most people expect to win.
• First scorer / last scorer: Bet on who scores the first or who scores the final touchdown.
• Futures: Bets that settle later, like who wins the league or season-long awards.
• Handicap: Another word for adjusting the margin to make teams even for betting purposes (same idea as the spread).
• Hook: The extra half point on a line (like 6.5) that removes the tie option and avoids a push.
• Juice (vig): The fee the sportsbook charges. It’s built into the odds, so the book makes money either way.
• Live betting: Placing wagers while the game is in progress, with odds that fluctuate as the action unfolds.
• Moneyline: A straight pick of who wins the game. You risk one amount to win another based on the odds shown.
• Over/under (total): A bet on whether a stat or score will be higher or lower than the number the book posts.
• Parlay: A single ticket that links several bets where every pick must win for the ticket to pay out.
• Prop (proposition) bet: Any wager on a specific event in a game that isn’t just the final winner or total.
• Push: When the final result exactly matches the number on your bet, your stake is usually returned.
• Spread: A margin the book sets to even things up. Betting the favorite means they must win by more than the spread; betting the underdog wins if they lose by less than the spread or win outright.
• Underdog: The team expected to lose.