Welcome to Kalshi Props Today — your daily snapshot of the most interesting, fun, and timely prediction markets across culture, politics, and sports.
Whether you’re new to Kalshi or already building your prediction portfolio, we’re here to highlight the most compelling plays of the day and why they’re worth a look.
From what’s happening on Capitol Hill to what might happen next in Hollywood, we’re scanning the markets and surfacing positions that blend relevance, value, and a little bit of fun.
Kalshi Props Today: Top Picks & Advice
Think of this as your daily dose of predictive insight — casual, readable, and always on the pulse.
Let’s dive in.
“Anniversary” Rotten Tomatoes Score: Can Jan Komasa’s English debut hold its nerve?
The Setup
Jan Komasa — the Polish filmmaker behind Corpus Christi and The Hater — makes his English-language leap with Anniversary, a political family thriller starring Diane Lane, Kyle Chandler, Phoebe Dynevor, and Dylan O’Brien.
The film lands in U.S. theaters on October 29 under Lionsgate, but early critic screenings have already cracked open Kalshi’s prediction boards.
The premise is pure tension: a seemingly normal 25th wedding anniversary turns into ideological warfare when a former student — and rising face of a radical movement — enters the family home. It’s The Dinner meets The Master, with Komasa’s signature slow-burn dread.
Critics are split. The Film Stage calls it “relentlessly watchable” and praises Komasa’s “battering ram” energy.
But others, like Showbiz by PS, blast it for being “a safe and slightly tone-deaf political thriller.” The result? Mixed-to-positive, but not glowing — a zone that’s now sending traders scrambling to price the ceiling on its Rotten Tomatoes run.
What People Are Saying
- On performances: Diane Lane and Phoebe Dynevor are drawing early praise. One critic dubbed Dynevor’s role “career-defining coldness.”
- On tone: Multiple reviewers mention the film’s uneven identity — prestige polish over pulp heart.
- On direction: Komasa’s visual control impresses, but some see “a European arthouse director wrestling with an American message.”
- On politics: The film’s ideological themes are topical but divisive. One reviewer quipped, “Komasa doesn’t pick a side — and that might cost him with both.”
The Market Picture
Forecast: 73.3 (▼4.9)
Volume: $4,521
Traders have trimmed expectations over the past 48 hours as festival chatter solidified the “solid but unspectacular” verdict. The forecast slipped nearly five points since midweek, now anchored in the low 70s — respectable, not rapturous.
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case:
Komasa’s pedigree and Lane’s gravitas could give Anniversary a slow-build boost. Critics respect the craft, even if divided on tone. If audience scores come in strong, a final Rotten Tomatoes average above 75 is in play. The trailer’s eerie, classy energy suggests this could overperform once it hits wider screens.
Bear case:
The reviews may already have set the ceiling. Words like “safe,” “prestige veneer,” and “tone-deaf” point to a critic consensus coalescing in the 70–74 band. Without a breakout festival encore or awards momentum, it’s hard to see a post-release surge.
Pick
At Yes 50¢, Above 75 is a pure coin flip — but leaning bearish feels smarter here. Anniversary looks too self-serious for mainstream love and too safe for critic adoration. The 73 forecast tells the story: solid craft, mixed message, capped upside.
Verdict: Fade the optimism. No Above 75 at 54¢ feels like the sharper trade.
2026 SI Swimsuit Cover: The Battle of the Beach Queens
The Setup
Sports Illustrated closed the book on its 2025 cover class — a power quartet of Salma Hayek Pinault, Lauren Chan, Olivia Dunne, and Olympic champ Jordan Chiles. But attention’s already turned to who headlines the 2026 edition.
The 2025 celebration at NYC’s Top of the Rock and Hard Rock Hotel left fans buzzing, and while returning names like Camille Kostek and Brooks Nader kept the spotlight burning, one rising name dominated chatter: Alix Earle.
Meanwhile, fitness star Tunde Oyeneyin — fresh off winning SI’s 2025 Swim Search — is confirmed as a 2026 rookie, putting her squarely in the mix for a breakout feature.
What People Are Saying
- On Alix Earle: TikTok’s reigning queen of casual glam is becoming a mainstream marketing force. Her 2025 SI debut put her on the radar, and her fanbase gives her the kind of social lift brands drool over. She’s also on the most recent season of Dancing with the Stars – furher boosting her appeal.
- On Camille Kostek: A fan favorite and former cover star, but traders are reading her dip (-11 points overnight) as a signal that SI may look toward fresh faces next spring.
- On Brooks Nader & Kate Upton: The veterans keep hanging around the leaderboard — but it’s feeling more “honorary legend” than “headline material.”
- On Tunde Oyeneyin: The Peloton powerhouse is the year’s feel-good story. SI crowned her its Swim Search winner, guaranteeing a 2026 appearance — and that could turn into a cover moment if the mag leans into diversity, inspiration, and empowerment themes.
The Market Picture
Here’s where Kalshi traders are making waves:
| Model | Chance | Yes | No |
| Alix Earle | 22% | 17¢ | 88¢ |
| Camille Kostek | 16% 🔻 | 27¢ | 84¢ |
| Brooks Nader | 10% | 15¢ | 94¢ |
| Kate Upton | 9% | 10¢ | 91¢ |
| (Volume: $466 total) |
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull Case (Alix Earle):
Her pop-culture pull is undeniable. She’s already a digital juggernaut, SI-approved, and a safe PR pick. With her clean brand, relatable tone, and fan engagement, she’s the new face of influencer-era Swimsuit covers.
Bear Case (Alix Earle):
SI Swimsuit tends to rotate toward statement picks — athletes, activists, or cultural icons — rather than influencers. With Oyeneyin’s empowerment narrative and SI’s current focus on athletic diversity, Alix’s odds may flatten if editorial direction shifts toward substance over social.
Pick
Alix Earle at Yes 17¢ still feels undervalued. She’s the digital-age cover bet with both cultural heat and SI pedigree. The smart play: ride Alix for now, but keep your alerts on for when Tunde enters the board. Her narrative — fitness, confidence, inclusivity — fits too neatly into SI’s evolving ethos to ignore.
Market Title: Katy Perry & Justin Trudeau Engagement 2025
After months of whispers, the Daily Mail (and half the internet) dropped photos showing Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau very publicly kissing aboard Perry’s 79-foot yacht off Santa Barbara.
The Setup
The pair — she, freshly single from Orlando Bloom; he, long divorced from Sophie Grégoire — have been spotted dining in Montreal, strolling through Mount Royal Park, and locking eyes across concert arenas.
Now, tabloids and traders alike are asking: are they just a high-summer fling or a headline-ready power couple in the making? With Perry’s split finalized and Trudeau comfortably out of office, the timeline technically allows a year-end engagement — but love and liquidity move differently on Kalshi.
What People Are Saying
- On the optics: “This is Canada’s most chaotic crossover episode since Drake met Céline Dion.”
- On timing: “Three months from breakup to boat PDA? That’s warp speed, even for pop royalty.”
- On Trudeau: “The man went from world leader to world’s luckiest rebound in under 18 months.”
- On Perry: “She’s done pirates, comedians, and actors — maybe a statesman is the final frontier.”
The Market Picture
| Outcome | Probability | Price | Volume |
| Yes — They’ll be engaged before Jan 1, 2026 | 42% | Yes 42¢ / No 96¢ | ~$2.3K total volume |
Activity has surged since the yacht photos broke, with the Yes side jumping from the low 20s to the low 40s — a full-on tabloid-fueled rally.
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case (Yes):
They’re both newly single, high-profile, and apparently inseparable. The yacht photos scream comfort and chemistry, and insiders say they’re “constantly in contact” via FaceTime. Perry’s been known to fall fast — her previous engagement to Bloom came less than a year into dating. A year-end proposal isn’t crazy if the spark keeps up.
Bear case (No):
Rebounds burn bright and fade faster. Perry’s in the middle of a world tour; Trudeau’s supposedly “keeping a low profile” after stepping back from politics. Engagements require time, proximity, and stability — three things they don’t currently have. This looks more Malibu fling than matrimony momentum.
Pick
No at 96¢ is the sensible play. The fundamentals (distance, timing, and career chaos) say no, but celebrity momentum trades differently. If this tabloid inferno keeps feeding itself through November, the Yes side could spike again on “exclusive source” rumors alone.
Who Will Run for Public Office Next Year?
Paul Finebaum: “From Play Calls to Poll Calls?”
The Setup
The “Voice of the SEC” is suddenly the voice of a Senate rumor mill. Paul Finebaum — 70 years old, a staple of Alabama sports radio and ESPN’s SEC Network — told OutKick’s Clay Travis he’s seriously considering a Republican bid for U.S. Senate. The seat? The one soon to be vacated by Tommy Tuberville, the former Auburn coach turned senator, turned gubernatorial hopeful.
Cue the media pileup: Travis alleged ESPN benched Finebaum for his political flirtation, while the network called the claim “TOTALLY FALSE.” Finebaum reappeared on First Take and Get Up this week, sparking debates about whether he’s running or simply leveraging the drama for attention — or maybe both.
What People Are Saying
- On ESPN politics: “Disney vs. Dixie” is how one columnist framed it. Right-leaning outlets say the network’s “culture wars” have collided with its southern fan base.
- On Finebaum’s odds: Pete Nakos at On3 says this isn’t Finebaum’s first political flirtation, noting D.C. insiders have “reached out” about a run.
- On motivation: Finebaum cited the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk as his political wake-up call — a flashpoint moment that’s energized Alabama conservatives.
- On precedent: If Tuberville could go from headset to Senate, Finebaum’s headset-to-hill jump doesn’t seem so far-fetched.
The Market Picture
Paul Finebaum — 65% (Yes 70¢ / No 40¢)
Danica Patrick — 50% (Yes 55¢ / No 55¢)
Trading volume: Moderate but surging after ESPN drama; Finebaum’s line up 18 points week-over-week.
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case: Finebaum’s name recognition is massive across Alabama, and his audience is politically aligned for a GOP primary. The ESPN scuffle only boosts his anti-establishment cred. With Tuberville exiting, the lane’s wide open.
Bear case: Fame doesn’t equal infrastructure. Finebaum’s not a career politician, and stepping from sports talk into the Senate race could expose him to scrutiny beyond the SEC bubble. He may ultimately use this flirtation as leverage for media freedom or a future Fox contract.
Pick
The momentum is with the Yes Finebaum crowd at 70¢.
The political energy, the media storm, and the Alabama familiarity all point to a man testing the waters more than bluffing. The “stick to sports” era is dead — and Finebaum might just prove it by sticking to ballots instead.
TRON: Ares: The Glow Dims Beneath the Grid
After years in development limbo, TRON: Ares finally powers up in IMAX 3D. Directed by Joachim Rønning (Maleficent: Mistress of Evil), the film sends Jared Leto’s militarized program into the real world, flipping the franchise’s inside-the-computer premise. Nine Inch Nails supplies a thundering score, the visuals are blindingly slick, and the ambition is obvious — but critics are split between calling it dazzling and declaring it dead code.
The Setup
The TRON brand has always been a style-first sandbox, and Ares doubles down: light cycles, holograms, moody synths. It’s a spectacle built to move merch and melt retinas. But beneath the glow, reviewers point to a hollow core — sleek programming running on outdated narrative hardware.
What People Are Saying
- On visuals: “Ares is the coolest-looking film of the year.” — The Movie Podcast. Others say it’s “an audiovisual marvel propping up an embarrassingly weak script.”
- On performances: Greta Lee steals the show, Jared Leto does his “emotionless AI” thing — some call it perfect casting, others call it proof he’s running on autopilot.
- On the score: Reznor and Ross’s Nine Inch Nails soundtrack is the film’s MVP — “a tidal wave of sound” that critics agree almost justifies the IMAX price tag.
- On tone: Fans of Legacy are divided. Some hail it as “a love letter,” others think Disney’s playing an old CD in a streaming world.
The Market Picture
Kalshi traders have been busy, with more than $267K in total volume.
The Above 47 contract is sitting at 95%, trading around Yes 98¢ / No 9¢, basically a lock.
The Above 50 line is the real battleground, currently at 65% with Yes 65¢ / No 36¢, up about 18 points since last week as reviews settle in the mixed-but-not-disastrous zone.
Meanwhile, Above 52 lingers at 31%, trading roughly Yes 31¢ / No 72¢, showing faint optimism but still pricing in skepticism.
Overall, the forecast average sits at 51.3, down nearly 11 points from last week as early critics pulled sentiment south.
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case:
Ares is the best TRON yet — and that’s a low but real bar. Between its IMAX 3D spectacle, devoted fanbase, and industrial-grade score, it might stabilize in the low-50s once audience scores roll in. For those betting Above 50, the bullish argument is that the visual experience, not the dialogue, drives this franchise’s legacy — and critics who see it in proper IMAX are softening their takes.
Bear case:
Once the neon fades, this is another Morbius-flavored misfire — more meme than movie. Critics are dinging it for being “visually stunning, narratively vacant.” And that 49% Rotten Tomatoes score looks sticky; even friendly reviewers call it “fun but forgettable.” The odds may still overstate its ceiling.
Pick
Yes Above 50 at 65¢
Government Shutdown 2025: How Long Will It Last?
The Setup
For the first time since 2018, Washington has gone dark. Federal funding lapsed on October 1st after Senate Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a deal, forcing agencies to close, workers to go without pay, and the economy to absorb a growing hit.
The standoff centers on health insurance subsidies and cuts to government healthcare programs. Democrats are digging in, hoping to spotlight expiring benefits. Republicans insist they’ve “done their job” with a stopgap bill and say Democrats are playing politics.
The last shutdown in 2018–19 dragged on for 35 days and cost the U.S. billions. This time, the stakes are arguably higher: no agencies are funded, hundreds of thousands of workers are furloughed, and both sides are signaling no rush to compromise.
What People Are Saying
- On Democrats: Vulnerable incumbents like Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) are already feeling pressure back home. Party leaders promise to hold the line, but rank-and-file senators in battleground states may start to wobble.
- On Republicans: Speaker Mike Johnson insists “there’s nothing to negotiate,” but White House officials quietly admit prolonged closures could backfire if voters blame the GOP for service disruptions.
- On the public: Polls show Americans lean toward blaming Republicans, but patience is thin on both sides. Federal workers missing paychecks could quickly shift the narrative.
The Market Picture
- More than 15 days — 69% (Yes 70¢ / No 31¢)
- More than 20 days — 50% (Yes 50¢ / No 52¢)
- More than 25 days — 37% (Yes 37¢ / No 64¢)
The forecast average: 20.5 days, with $2.6M+ in trading volume so far. Momentum has swung sharply upward since the shutdown began.
Bull vs Bear Case
- Bull case (long shutdown): Neither side wants to blink first. Democrats see political advantage in framing Republicans as the party of cuts. Republicans believe Democrats will crack under federal worker pressure. The rhetoric is escalating, not softening — echoing 2018’s drawn-out fight.
- Bear case (short shutdown): Vulnerable Democrats in red-leaning states can’t afford weeks of shutdown headlines. If just a handful defect, a deal passes. Plus, economic pressure — from grounded flights to closed parks — could force quick compromise.
Pick
At 20+ days priced near a coin flip, the market is spot on about uncertainty. The “smart money” may lean toward Yes >20 days (50¢) given the entrenched positions, but the cleaner value play looks like Yes >15 days at 70¢ — expensive but safer, as both history and current dynamics point to at least a multi-week standoff.
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