Welcome to Kalshi Props Today — your daily snapshot of the most interesting, fun, and timely prediction markets across culture, politics, and sports.
Whether you’re new to Kalshi or already building your prediction portfolio, we’re here to highlight the most compelling plays of the day and why they’re worth a look.
From what’s happening on Capitol Hill to what might happen next in Hollywood, we’re scanning the markets and surfacing positions that blend relevance, value, and a little bit of fun.
Kalshi Props Today: Top Picks & Advice
Think of this as your daily dose of predictive insight — casual, readable, and always on the pulse.
Let’s dive in.
New York City Mayor Election: Adams Out, Race Reshaped
The Setup
Mayor Eric Adams stunned the city by announcing he’s ending his bid for re-election, leaving the field to three main contenders: Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, Independent Andrew Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Adams’ exit — after months of scandal, a federal indictment (later dropped), and cratering poll numbers — marks the first time in three decades an incumbent mayor has failed to reach the ballot as a serious contender.
That decision shifts the dynamics dramatically. Mamdani, who already beat Cuomo handily in the Democratic primary, enters the final stretch with a commanding lead. Cuomo, freshly freed from Adams splitting the moderate vote, hopes consolidation will revive his campaign. Sliwa, a perennial longshot, is positioning himself as the “only one who can stop Mamdani” — though the math looks daunting in deep-blue New York.
What People Are Saying
- On Adams’ exit: Even Adams’ critics concede his withdrawal clears the path for a sharper, two-front race. Cuomo praised his “resilience,” while Mamdani framed the mayoralty as a “failed promise” that voters are ready to replace.
- On Cuomo: Supporters tout his experience and resources — Forbes estimates his net worth around $10M, far outpacing rivals. But skeptics argue his comeback effort is too little, too late, weighed down by old scandals and fresh questions about ties to Trump.
- On Mamdani: Progressive allies call him the face of a new political coalition, energized by grassroots organizing. Business leaders, meanwhile, are pouring millions into super PACs targeting him, framing his agenda as radical and risky.
- On Sliwa: Admirers see his crime-focused campaign and animal-rights plank as quirky but authentic. Critics dismiss him as a protest candidate with no path to governing.
The Market Picture
The Kalshi board shows Mamdani dominating:
- Zohran Mamdani — 84% (Yes 84¢ / No 17¢)
Still the overwhelming favorite, despite a flood of attack ads. - Andrew Cuomo — 15% (Yes 16¢ / No 85¢)
Gaining a small boost from Adams’ departure, but far behind. - Curtis Sliwa — 2% (Yes 2¢ / No 99¢)
A longshot with loyal but limited appeal.
Total trading volume: $28M+, among the highest for a municipal race on Kalshi.
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case (Mamdani):
He’s already beaten Cuomo once and commands an energized base. The fractured opposition (and Adams still appearing on the ballot, despite dropping out) dilutes anti-Mamdani votes.
Bear case (Mamdani):
Attack ads and elite opposition could soften his numbers in the home stretch. Business groups and moderates are uniting around Cuomo, whose name recognition and cash advantage may resonate with voters wary of “radical change.” If Sliwa siphons fewer votes than expected, a consolidated anti-Mamdani coalition could narrow the gap.
Pick
The value sits with Yes Mamdani at 84¢. Pricey, but as close to a lock as this market gets — the fundamentals all point his way. Cuomo at 16¢ is only worth a speculative flyer if you believe Adams’ exit sparks a late-breaking realignment. Sliwa at 2¢? Pure lotto ticket.
The smart money stays with Mamdani.
Super Bowl 2026 Halftime Show (Entertainment Market)
The Setup
It’s official: Bad Bunny will headline the Super Bowl LX Halftime Show on February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. With the announcement, markets locked him in at near certainty — 99% priced and trading at Yes 98¢ / No 3¢.
But the real intrigue now shifts to who will join him on stage. Super Bowl halftime shows almost always feature surprise guests, and speculation is running hot. Cardi B’s odds have surged to 47%, reflecting both her history with Bad Bunny and her proven ability to light up big stages. Lil Wayne, meanwhile, popped to 69% after chatter about potential crossover collabs.
What People Are Saying
- Cardi B buzz: Traders and fans alike are circling Cardi. Her 2018 smash “I Like It” with Bad Bunny and J Balvin remains one of the defining Latin crossover hits of the past decade. Bringing her back alongside Benito would be both nostalgic and explosive. Fans argue she’s the most natural guest choice.
- Lil Wayne rumors: Though not as obvious a fit, Wayne’s odds ballooned from single digits to nearly 70%. The speculation? He’s been spotted in studio sessions with multiple Roc Nation artists, and his legendary status could add hip-hop weight to Bad Bunny’s global pop appeal.
The Market Picture
The market tells the story of the pivot:
- Bad Bunny: 99% (Yes 98¢ / No 3¢) — confirmed headliner, effectively a lock.
- Lil Wayne: 69% (Yes 6¢ / No 99¢) — speculative but gaining steam.
- Cardi B: 47% (Yes 64¢ / No 40¢) — the crowd favorite for a guest slot, trading actively.
Total volume: $60.8K, with Cardi’s line seeing the most action post-announcement.
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case (Cardi B):
The “I Like It” connection is undeniable. Cardi and Bad Bunny already proved their chemistry on a global smash. Cardi’s larger-than-life personality fits the halftime spectacle perfectly, and she broadens the audience appeal. Odds near 50% reflect a bet that Roc Nation leans into history and hype.
Bear case (Cardi B):
The NFL might steer toward fresher collaborations or more “family-friendly” partners. Cardi’s brand, while massive, can be polarizing. There’s also the chance that Bad Bunny opts for all-Latin guests (J Balvin, Rauw Alejandro) to underscore cultural pride.
Pick
The best value play is Yes on Cardi B at 64¢. It’s not cheap, but the narrative, history, and fan buzz line up too neatly to ignore.
Lil Wayne’s sudden spike feels more speculative than solid — fun action at 6¢, but risky. Bad Bunny alone is guaranteed, but the upside is already priced in.
If you want real halftime fireworks, follow the Cardi trade.
Roofman (Rotten Tomatoes Market)
The Setup
Derek Cianfrance’s long-awaited return to feature filmmaking, Roofman, adapts the bizarre true story of Jeffrey Manchester, a veteran who pulled off dozens of McDonald’s roof robberies before escaping prison and hiding out in a Toys “R” Us.
Channing Tatum anchors the film as Manchester, with Kirsten Dunst as Leigh, a divorced mom who unwittingly becomes part of his double life. The movie blends true-crime, romance, and nostalgic mid-2000s Americana — a warmer, more sentimental turn for Cianfrance, better known for darker dramas like Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines.
The reviews so far are split between admiration and frustration. Many critics highlight Tatum’s career-best work and his chemistry with Dunst, while others argue the film softens its edges and skirts deeper social critique.
What People Are Saying
Positive takes lean heavily on the performances and tone. Pete Hammond at Deadline called it “one of 2025’s best movies,” while David Rooney praised its sincerity as a crowd-pleaser. Sophie Butcher highlighted its empathy and entertainment value, and multiple reviewers described Tatum as delivering his finest dramatic turn since Foxcatcher.
Skeptics point to the film’s refusal to fully interrogate Manchester’s psychology or the systems that shaped his choices. Critics like Marya E. Gates and Tim Grierson noted it “shows the what, not the why.” Others flagged tonal inconsistencies: some find the mix of crime, romance, and light comedy refreshing, others see it as indecisive.
Still, the on-screen pairing of Tatum and Dunst has earned near-universal praise, with Benjamin Lee and Peter Debruge both singling out their chemistry as a reason the film works.
The Market Picture
The Kalshi board reflects the divided critical response:
- Above 75: 82% (Yes 82¢ / No 25¢) — priced as nearly locked, though not at “sure thing” levels.
- Above 80: 38% (Yes 48¢ / No 62¢) — the real battleground, with sentiment slipping (down 6 points).
- Above 85: 7% (Yes 11¢ / No 95¢) — long-shot territory, with little confidence it can reach prestige-tier acclaim.
The forecast currently sits at 78.6, slightly down from earlier highs. Trading volume has already topped $17K, a healthy signal for a non-franchise drama.
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case: Tatum’s performance and the novelty of the true story give Roofman staying power. Early buzz frames it as one of his best roles, and with Cianfrance’s name attached, some critics may warm to it post-festival. Strong audience reception could push it above 80, especially if word-of-mouth emphasizes charm over missed depth.
Bear case: Reviews already show a ceiling. Too many critics describe it as safe, sentimental, or incurious, capping its critical score in the high 70s. Even sympathetic reviewers admit it doesn’t fully commit to darker or more complex themes. Without a wave of rapturous endorsements, the odds of climbing to 80+ shrink by the day.
Pick
The smart value play is Yes Above 75 at ~82¢ — pricey, but near-lock safe given the broad base of positive (if not glowing) reviews. For action, the coin flip on Yes Above 80 at ~48¢ is intriguing, but riskier; critics seem to be settling in the 76–79 band. Skip Above 85 — it’s too ambitious given the current tone.
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