We asked our analyst, Juan Carlos Blanco, to sift through all the diamonds and duds of the infamous NFL Week 18. Are key players going to be on the bench, making way for unexpected stars to shine? Will teams be playing to lose?
We have the breakdown of all the factors you should be considering in your Week 18 betting, and a correlated pick to go along with each reason. Make sure to check out our other Week 18 analysis below as well.
Diamond or Dud – NFL Week 18 Best Bets
Our analysts run through their favorite NFL player props for the major slates each week.
Looking for more analysis? Check out all of our Week 18 content linked below.
Top-Flight Players Taking a Seat
This season, the final week of the campaign doesn’t have as many high-stakes scenarios as in some other years. For example, the Chiefs, Bills and Eagles are three teams that had already locked in their playoff seeding as of Week 17 thanks to dominant seasons, while the Rams have clinched the NFC West with a win over the Cardinals thanks to an impressive five-game winning streak at a critical juncture.
Consequently, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, who’s been battling a mild high-ankle sprain, is going to sit out Sunday’s finale against the Broncos in order to get over three weeks of rest before the No. 1-seeded defending champs return to action in the divisional round. Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones are among other Kansas City front-line players likely to get the entire game off, while several other starters will likely see abbreviated stints.
Josh Allen, the odds-on favorite for NFL MVP, is going to actually see the field for the No. 2-seeded Bills against the Patriots, but likely only for one series. He’ll only be in uniform and in the game to extend his streak of 104 regular-season starts. Other key skill-position assets such as James Cook, Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir may also see only a series or two.
The Eagles, locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC, will naturally sit out Jalen Hurts, who is still apparently in concussion protocol and also nursing a finger injury. No. 2 signal-caller Kenny Pickett may also sit out to rest his sore ribs. Saquon Barkley, who is just 101 yards away from setting the all-time single-season rushing yardage record, will nevertheless stay out of harm’s way as well, as will A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in order to rest nagging injuries.
Finally, the Rams aren’t quite in the upper echelon on the postseason field like the trio of aforementioned squads, but head coach Sean McVay has announced that Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are among those of his key players that will get the finale off.
Correlated Week 18 Pick
Blake Corum Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
As mentioned above, Kyren Williams will be resting up Sunday for the opening round of the postseason. That leaves rookie Blake Corum as the projected lead back, and McVay notably said earlier in the week he was excited to see what Corum could do with expanded opportunity.
The 2024 third-round pick has had his moments this season but has seen just 62 touches overall. That should certainly leave Corum refreshed for a matchup against a Seahawks defense that’s allowed 128.6 rushing yards per road game.
While there’s an argument to be made that the fact it will be Jimmy Garoppolo and a cast of backup pass catchers operating the air attack could lead to more stacked boxes against Corum, the Rams actually happen to sport one of the better “second units” at the skill positions in the NFC. Garoppolo has enjoyed plenty of success as a starter, while the likes of Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington and Demarcus Robinson can still garner the respect of opposing secondaries.
Corum has averaged only 3.5 yards per carry during his rookie campaign but averaged 5.6 yards per carry over his last three college seasons, lending credence to the notion he could certainly get past this number with the workload he’s expected to see as the top rusher on an offense that’s run the ball at an elevated clip (53.85%) over the last three games.
Where to play: Blake Corum Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
High-Stakes Scenarios: Broncos, Bucs, Lions, Vikings
There are still handful of teams that have direct control of their playoff destiny, whether that’s in terms of actually getting into the postseason tournament or finalizing their seeding.
The Broncos have missed out on the opportunity to punch their playoff ticket in two consecutive weeks. That leaves them needing a win over the Chiefs at home in Week 18 to ensure they’ll be playing beyond Sunday. While that would typically be a daunting task, the fact Kansas City is expected to roll out reserves on both sides of the ball does certainly up the chances of Sean Payton’s club finally recording a playoff-clinching victory.
The Buccaneers are also steering their own postseason ship. Matters looked a bit more bleak for Tampa Bay a few weeks ago, but the Bucs have clawed their way back to the top of the NFC South and have a one-game lead on the Falcons. Therefore, a Tampa Bay home win against a significantly short-handed Saints team will ensure Todd Bowles’ squad will be playing on Super Wild Card Weekend.
And naturally, the regular season will close out with a gem of a showdown between the Vikings and Lions that will decide both the NFC North winner and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Both teams will naturally pull out all the stops, and in a testament to how closely matched the two squads are, Detroit is less than a standard three-point home favorite (-2.5) going into the weekend.
Correlated Week 18 Pick
Baker Mayfield Over 249.5 Passing Yards
Props for completions and pass attempts are a bit hard to come by in Week 18 thanks to some uncertainty regarding who’ll suit up and for how long. Mayfield doesn’t really carry too much uncertainty in that regard since the Buccaneers have to win to ensure a playoff spot by way of the NFC South title.
Therefore, I would expect plenty of aggressiveness from Tampa Bay right from the opening gun. While New Orleans’ defense has been popular to target with running backs, it bears noting there’s a major disparity in the Saints’ home/road splits in terms of rushing yards per game allowed (158.7 RYPG at home, 113.9 RYPG on road).
Mayfield has been a premium weapon for the Bucs throughout the season and has already thrown for a career-high 4,279 yards, and Tampa Bay is also looking to help Mike Evans tie Jerry Rice’s record for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons at 11, which should help keep the pass rate healthy in this spot. Moreover, Mayfield threw for 325 against the Saints in Week 6, and New Orleans has given up 240.6 passing yards per road game and are facing a 58.4% pass-play rate in that split.
Where to play: Bake Mayfield Over 249.5 Passing Yards
Battle for No. 1 Pick: Patriots/Titans/Browns/Giants
Much has been made about the fact the Giants may have blown the chance at one of the draft’s top two quarterbacks – Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward – with their win over the Colts in Week 17. That did indeed push the Patriots to the No. 1 spot for the moment, with the Titans, Browns and Giants momentarily slotting into the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 spots.
That sets up some interesting Week 18 situations for each team in terms of what their actual motivation to win might be. With either of the two QBs likely to be taken with the top pick, the Patriots are almost certainly the least interested in the pick for their purposes considering their investment in Drake Maye.
Cleveland is clearly the one of those three squads likeliest to lose whether they like it or not, considering the opposing Ravens are favored by 20, need a victory to clinch the AFC North, and outclass them at a multitude of positions. Tennessee, which is facing a Texans team that will supposedly play starters, may be taking more of an under-the-radar approach by going with a two-quarterback attack that will see both Will Levis and Mason Rudolph see action, and by potentially sitting Tony Pollard.
The Giants will still likely go with Drew Lock, who threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns against the Colts in Week 17, over Tommy DeVito at quarterback. How hard Big Blue plays will be interesting, as they’re facing an Eagles team that may not actually offer much resistance due to the fact it may be quarterbacked by third-stringer Tanner McKee and see mostly reserves play on both sides of the ball.
Correlated Week 18 Pick
Drew Lock Under 31.5 Pass Attempts
Lock’s aforementioned stellar performance against the Colts in Week 17 may have been the most inopportune breakout effort in recent memory from the standpoint of knocking the Giants out of the No. 1 pick in April’s draft for the time being.
That said, New York is still in the running and certainly will looking to snag either Sanders or Ward with its first-round selection, given the absolute dire state of the franchise’s quarterback position. Consequently, I wouldn’t expect an overly aggressive game plan from New York in this finale, which could actually feature plenty of truncated drives on both sides and opportunistic defensive play.
That notion is furthered by the fact the Eagles will not only be resting all key offensive starters, but likely even going with third-string signal-caller McKee under center due to the desire to help Pickett get rested up for the postseason. The chances of Philadelphia pushing New York to remain aggressive through the air and make it a bit more difficult to keep up the appearance that a win isn’t at the forefront of the G-Men’s goals is therefore lower as well, meaning this pass-attempt number doesn’t look overly reachable.
The Eagles may also be a bit more inviting to run against than usual due to the expected absences of some top players from the front seven, which could mean a fairly heavy workload for rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr., who’ll be looking to put a strong close to what has been a productive first NFL campaign. And finally, it wouldn’t be entirely surprising for head coach Brian Daboll to give Tommy DeVito a chance to get some reps in toward the tail end of the game as well, which would further up the odds of this prop cashing.
Where to play: Drew Lock Under 31.5 Pass Attempts | -126 at FanDuel Sportsbook