College basketball middling can be an elite strategy if implemented correctly.
We asked our analyst, Justin Bales, to break down all you need to know about using this strategy in college basketball betting.
Make sure to check out the different examples, tips, and strategy that will help you boost your bankroll.
College Basketball Middling Example
College basketball is one of the most volatile sports in the world. It’s one of the reasons we’ve seen two 16-seeds upside the top overall team in the country in recent years in March Madness.
Essentially, college basketball is a game of runs. There are plenty of times when teams go back and forth, but the majority of competitive games feature big runs by each team. Live betting on this sport isn’t for the faint of heart.
The Kansas Jayhawks played the North Carolina Tar Heels on Nov. 9, 2024. Kansas was a 7.5-point favorite when the game started. With 1:43 remaining in the first half, the Jayhawks boasted a 20-point lead. The game ended 92-89 with Kansas taking the win.
At one point, Action Network projected Kansas had a 90% chance to cover the spread. UNC ultimately covered with ease. They also projected that at varying times during the game, Kansas had a 99% chance to win and North Carolina had an 80% chance to win.
This shows the volatility of college basketball with the Tar Heels being down 20 points late in the first half but up 2 points with only 2:03 left in the game. These types of games create elite middling opportunities.
Guaranteed Profit Middling Opportunity
This isn’t some crazy get-rich-quick trick. You can guarantee profit by middling plus-odd bets throughout the game. These are generally done through moneyline bets rather than spreads or totals. This type of betting limits your risk, but it also limits your upside.
The simplest way to guarantee profit is by betting both sides at plus odds. Here’s an example:
Kentucky is playing UCLA with the latter being a pre-game +150 underdog. You bet 1 unit on UCLA to return 2.5 units (profit 1.5). The Bruins get out to a massive lead early in the game, and Kentucky shoots to a +150 underdog themselves.
At this point, you can bet 1 unit on the Wildcats to guarantee profit. Once again, it’d be 1 unit to return 2.5 units (profit 1.5). Overall, you’d bet 2 units to return 2.5 units. Regardless of who wins, you’ve now guaranteed to profit 0.5 units on this game.
You don’t strictly have to bet on pre-game underdogs to guarantee profit during the game, though. Here’s another example:
Tennessee is a -125 favorite over Duke. Before the game, you bet 1.25 units on Tennessee to return 2.25 units (profit 1 unit). The Volunteers take an early lead, and the Blue Devils shift to +250 underdogs.
You can now bet 1 unit on Duke to return 3.5 units (profit 2.5). In this situation, you’d break even if Tennessee wins and profit 1.25 units if Duke wins.
It’s important to understand that this type of betting isn’t quite as simple as betting an underdog and profit. If you bet on an underdog and they can’t get out to a solid lead at any point in the game, you’re never going to have the middling opportunity.
Still, if you have a great feel for games, you can guarantee profit when teams go on runs throughout the game.
High-Risk, High-Reward Middling Opportunity
You can use spreads and game totals to get more upside on your middling opportunity, although it comes with more risk.
For example, you bet Purdue as a 6.5-point favorite (-110) before the game begins. They get out to an early lead against Florida State, and the Seminoles balloon to a +14.5 point underdog (-110). You can now bet on Florida State to limit losses and add upside to your bet.
Here’s how it would look:
- 1.1 units to return 2.1 units (profit 1) on Purdue -6.5
- 1.1 units to return 2.1 units (profit 1) on Florida State +14.5
If Purdue wins by 6 or fewer or Florida State loses by 15 or more, you’ll lose 0.2 units. If the game ends with Purdue winning by 6 or less or Florida State winning by 14 or less, you’ll win 4.2 units (profit 2) because you hit the middle.
This is the same process for the game total. If you bet the under pre-game, you’ll have to bet the live over during the game to find a middling opportunity. If you bet the over pre-game, you’ll bet the live under to create a middling opportunity.
College basketball is one of the most volatile sports for several reasons. This volatility creates opportunities, though, as long as you’re willing to be available to live bet the games.
